General Discussion

Emrys

(7,870 posts)

31. Apart from anything else, as ever with polls, especially when comparing them for changes, LOOK AT THE MARGIN OF ERROR

Reply to Doodley (Original post)

Mon Sep 16, 2024, 09:04 AM

Sep 16

MOE = 2 percentage points

The "expansion" you're freaking out at is 0.8. It could just be noise

Other than that, what methodology did they use for the polls, and what screens did they use - likely voter or what? Whatever they used, did it take into account new registrations etc.?

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What's up with this highly rated poll that puts Trump in the lead nationally? Updated with links in OP. [View all] Doodley Sep 16 OP

Highly rated by whom? Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #1

538 give it nearly 3 out of 3. Doodley Sep 16 #10

538 does what Peter Thiel tells it to do. gab13by13 Sep 16 #18

You are mistaken - Silver was fired from 538 almost two years ago Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #22

And Silver is now plugging another book. DinahMoeHum Sep 16 #61

Here's a link to 538 ratings. It is highly rated. Doodley Sep 16 #24

Nate Silver hitched his wagon to the far right and Peter Thiel. Sky Jewels Sep 16 #69

Nate silver is no longer associated with 538 DetroitLegalBeagle Sep 16 #80

538 is operated by ABC News, which is owned by Disney. Abolishinist Sep 16 #103

RIGHT WING NUTS according to google "libertarian, free-market, and conservative groups around the world"[ HagathaCrispy Sep 16 #23

thank you for that research NoRethugFriends Sep 16 #28

Thanks for the info Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #32

Ahhhh. Now the name makes sense. "Atlas" as in shrugged. Hassin Bin Sober Sep 16 #52

Thank you for the information. Where can I find the connection between Atlas Network and AtlasIntel? Doodley Sep 16 #57

Outlier Aviation Pro Sep 16 #2

This poll was released a few days ago. Can you link to the "legacy" media stories "incessantly" pointing to it? onenote Sep 16 #8

That alone should tell everyone about the company's reputation Wiz Imp Sep 16 #62

Exactly, none of the media sources I watch/read have incessantly touted this poll. Silent Type Sep 16 #81

Agreed it seems to be an outlier. Doodley Sep 16 #59

It's easy to get a poll like that. Omnipresent Sep 16 #3

Nate Silver said to resist temptation to unskew arlyellowdog Sep 16 #4

I posted the poll here as it was on X as I thought that would be easiest way to communicate it. Here is a link if you Doodley Sep 16 #12

I mean the poll was taken on X. arlyellowdog Sep 16 #15

Try deleting it. Other posters have shown it's a winger-manipulated and funded poll. brush Sep 16 #55

I would need to see evidence that it is R/W manipulated. I would love to see evidence that this poll is garbage so it Doodley Sep 16 #58

You have been given that evidence Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #79

This poll is of likely voters. That changes the sample. I'm not going to say I know better than Doodley Sep 16 #84

Nate Silver literally has his paycheck signed by Peter Thiel obamanut2012 Sep 16 #35

ABC has Harris up by 6 Abnredleg Sep 16 #5

This poll doesn't even make the Top 20 on 538's pollster ratings. marmar Sep 16 #6

It is 22 and that is highly rated at nearly 3 out of 3 stars. Doodley Sep 16 #13

You really seem to want to accept this poll without questioning it. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #26

Wrong! I asked what's up with the poll! Doodley Sep 16 #30

Some numbers are up, other numbers are down Torchlight Sep 16 #40

And when others criticize the poll, you defend it. Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #41

What evidence? Doodley Sep 16 #42

None so blind as those who will not see Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #53

I accept 538 is probably better than I am at rating polls. Where is the evidence the pollster is libertarian? Doodley Sep 16 #63

Their libertarian mission statement was posted in this thread. Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #72

That was for Atlas Network. Where is the connection between Atlas Network and AtlasIntel? I never quoted Nate Silver! Doodley Sep 16 #83

Apologies- someone else referenced Silver, not you Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #97

No probs. Easy to mistake who posts what. My conclusion is that this poll is an outlier and probably BS. . Doodley Sep 16 #111

Yup obamanut2012 Sep 16 #36

In all my years of following (and sometimes laughing at) the polls... -misanthroptimist Sep 16 #7

We don't have 15 polls vs 1. Doodley Sep 16 #16

Nate Silver is owned by Peter Thiel. gab13by13 Sep 16 #21

Silver is a corrupt hack, and shouldn't be quoted as evidence of anything Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #27

It isn't a Nate Silver poll! What has Nate Silver got to do with it? Doodley Sep 16 #34

Yup, it is a non-American pollster obamanut2012 Sep 16 #38

Good points! Thanks! Doodley Sep 16 #43

highly rated? Atlas poll? never heard of them. nt Javaman Sep 16 #9

check here. Number 22 on 538. That is highly rated. Doodley Sep 16 #19

I notice you asked "what's up" but you're not listening to answers. yardwork Sep 16 #25

I'm waiting for an answer. What is up with that poll? Where is an answer? Attacking X or Nate Silver, questioning if Doodley Sep 16 #29

You've received numerous answers. yardwork Sep 16 #37

Where did I claim Nate Silver likes it? Why are you attacking me? It is highly rated, nearly 3 out of 3 on 538. Doodley Sep 16 #45

Perhaps you need to clarify what you mean by "What's Up?" Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #74

I love the Sea Lions! Abolishinist Sep 16 #108

I guess by calling it "highly rated".... Think. Again. Sep 16 #11

Yep. Kingofalldems Sep 16 #14

Exactly obamanut2012 Sep 16 #39

That is just a stupid comment. (Note, I'm not saying YOU are stupid.) But... LAS14 Sep 16 #50

Perhaps you're unaware... Think. Again. Sep 16 #56

In the absence of clear evidence of hostile intent, why worry about the motivation of the poster? LAS14 Sep 16 #88

Because I am not basing my response on evidence... Think. Again. Sep 16 #91

Your opinion, to assume hostility in the absence of evidence... LAS14 Sep 16 #93

If the large tent doesn't welcome opinions... Think. Again. Sep 16 #94

I see the beginnings of a vicious circle here. (Vicious cycle? I was never sure.) nt LAS14 Sep 16 #98

Yeah, they get kinda tiring. Think. Again. Sep 16 #99

The demographics are totally skewed. C_U_L8R Sep 16 #17

All I know is that we need to keep swinging that hammer. Midnight Writer Sep 16 #20

Apart from anything else, as ever with polls, especially when comparing them for changes, LOOK AT THE MARGIN OF ERROR Emrys Sep 16 #31

4 Non Blondes is What's up bronxiteforever Sep 16 #33

What does this mean? nt LAS14 Sep 16 #49

You can ignore the "highly rated" by 538, Nate Silver lees1975 Sep 16 #44

Nate Silver has nothing to do with 538 since last year. Doodley Sep 16 #47

Doesn't make any difference, Atlas is still a corporate owned, commercial marketing poll that leans lees1975 Sep 16 #100

What's Up With Posting Polls Instead of GOTV Efforts and Links Aepps22 Sep 16 #46

Doodley, thanks for hanging in there, trying to force... LAS14 Sep 16 #48

That means a lot, thank you! You describe exactly how I feel! I will remember your name! Doodley Sep 16 #68

:-) LAS14 Sep 16 #89

I'm popping in to defend you, too. femmedem Sep 16 #90

Thank you. I appreciate that! I will remember your name too and watch out for you on the DU highway! Doodley Sep 16 #92

Likewise, I'd like to know what's up with this poll. LAS14 Sep 16 #51

I lived most my life in the UK. To be credible, polsters must join the British Polling Council and abide by certain Doodley Sep 16 #67

This message was self-deleted by its author Abolishinist Sep 16 #105

Thanks you for this and your other posts. Abolishinist Sep 16 #106

Thanks! nt LAS14 Sep 16 #110

Do not shoot the messenger Doodley kansasobama Sep 16 #54

Thank you for saying so. Yes, this poll looks wrong when you look at those scores on several issues. Doodley Sep 16 #65

They have a track record of right wing bias Wiz Imp Sep 16 #60

I agree that the poll about the debate is well out and unlikely IMO. Makes me think this poll is garbage, Doodley Sep 16 #64

I'll agree that you can't completely disregard any individual poll no matter how outrageous their results Wiz Imp Sep 16 #70

Thank you. I agree and appreciate your comment! Doodley Sep 16 #73

I totally believe half+ of the country wants this criminal super whiner. Brainfodder Sep 16 #66

Why did you post a question ibegurpard Sep 16 #71

I haven't seen evidence that this poll is Libertarian, or that Nate Silver has anything to do with it. Doodley Sep 16 #78

It's a total outlier Johnny2X2X Sep 16 #75

Should we give up? Kingofalldems Sep 16 #76

Silver is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Peter Thiel LearnedHand Sep 16 #77

It isn't a Nate Silver poll. Doodley Sep 16 #82

Not really a good try. Kingofalldems Sep 16 #85

It's basically the only national poll that shows Trump ahead VMA131Marine Sep 16 #86

Very perceptive answer! Thank you! Doodley Sep 16 #87

The margin of error is 4%, and the result is well within that iemanja Sep 16 #95

Actually, the margin of error is 2%. Abolishinist Sep 16 #107

Am I looking at a different poll? iemanja Sep 16 #109

We asked Atlas why they are so far out from other polls ... dawg Sep 16 #96

Two Points Locutusofborg Sep 16 #101

It's probably part of the Trump Polling Company conglomerate. Vinca Sep 16 #102

International, self-selecting demographics, online poll with no published methodology obamanut2012 Sep 16 #104

And what's up with this NEW poll? Kingofalldems Sep 16 #112

That is not a legitimate poll/pollster obamanut2012 Sep 16 #113