What's up with this highly rated poll that puts Trump in the lead nationally? Updated with links in OP.

[Doodley]

Last edited Mon Sep 16, 2024, 10:14 AM - Edit history (2)

Edited to add that I do not agree or disagree with this poll.
My question is "What is up with it?"
By that I mean why is it so far out from other polls? Is it just an outlier? Is the methodology flawed?

I am also adding these links:

Highly rated on 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

You can download the polling details here:
https://www.atlasintel.org/polls/general-release-polls

Link to tweet

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Highly rated by whom?

Never heard of Atlas polling.

Trump’s ceiling nationally is 47%, so this poll is clearly an outlier (or more likely just a plain liar).

[Doodley]

10. 538 give it nearly 3 out of 3.

[gab13by13]

18. 538 does what Peter Thiel tells it to do.

Nate Silver has moved to the dark side.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. You are mistaken - Silver was fired from 538 almost two years ago

He has become Theil’s puppet since leaving 538.

[DinahMoeHum]

61. And Silver is now plugging another book.

I would dump Silver as unreliable.

If you want better assessments, polling-wise, go to Simon Rosenberg or Tom Bonier

[Doodley]

24. Here's a link to 538 ratings. It is highly rated.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Sky Jewels]

69. Nate Silver hitched his wagon to the far right and Peter Thiel.

He is no longer considered a reliable source of accurate information.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

80. Nate silver is no longer associated with 538

They went their separate ways 2 years ago.

[Abolishinist]

103. 538 is operated by ABC News, which is owned by Disney.

538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him. 538's new owner Disney hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model.

On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight.

[HagathaCrispy]

23. RIGHT WING NUTS according to google "libertarian, free-market, and conservative groups around the world"[

Atlas Network
Article Talk
Language
Download PDF
This article is about the United States-based organization that supports think tanks. For the European police organization, see ATLAS Network. For other networks, see Atlas (disambiguation).
Atlas Network, formerly known as Atlas Economic Research Foundation, is a non-governmental 501(c)(3) organization based in the United States that provides training, networking, and grants for libertarian, free-market, and conservative groups around the world[
/b]

[NoRethugFriends]

28. thank you for that research

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. Thanks for the info

So, Atlas is to the right of Trafalgar.

Maybe the polling average manipulation is starting early, and they aren’t going to wait until October like they did in 2022.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

52. Ahhhh. Now the name makes sense. "Atlas" as in shrugged.

What’s next? John Gault polls?

[Doodley]

57. Thank you for the information. Where can I find the connection between Atlas Network and AtlasIntel?

[Aviation Pro]

2. Outlier

But the legacy media will point to it incessantly.

[onenote]

8. This poll was released a few days ago. Can you link to the "legacy" media stories "incessantly" pointing to it?

I looked and couldn't find any.

[Wiz Imp]

62. That alone should tell everyone about the company's reputation

If they had any kind of a positive reputation like NYT/Siena, you can bet it would be all over MSM. The fact that it has been largely ignored tells you it deserves to be ignored.

And yes, the post you responded to was way overblown in their reaction.

[Silent Type]

81. Exactly, none of the media sources I watch/read have incessantly touted this poll.

[Doodley]

59. Agreed it seems to be an outlier.

[Omnipresent]

3. It's easy to get a poll like that.

All they have to do is oversample red districts in each state.

[arlyellowdog]

4. Nate Silver said to resist temptation to unskew

Which means there is a temptation. First of all, it’ was an online poll on Twitter when it was highly rated. So now it’s an online poll on Elon musk’s X. Any right thinking person is off X. Seems like it overstates young males. Anyway, just remember it’s online on X and don’t worry about it.

[Doodley]

12. I posted the poll here as it was on X as I thought that would be easiest way to communicate it. Here is a link if you

want the details.

https://www.atlasintel.org/polls/general-release-polls

[arlyellowdog]

15. I mean the poll was taken on X.

It’s a foreign (South American) poll. Most Harris supporters I know have deleted their twitter accounts.

[brush]

55. Try deleting it. Other posters have shown it's a winger-manipulated and funded poll.

Does it take into account the recent debate results? And the alleged cat and dog eating lies?

[Doodley]

58. I would need to see evidence that it is R/W manipulated. I would love to see evidence that this poll is garbage so it

can be completely dismissed. I agree it doesn't include latest developments.

[Fiendish Thingy]

79. You have been given that evidence

Did you read the cross tabs and methodology at the link you provided?

The sample makeup included 33% Republicans, when they are between 26-29% of the electorate nationally. The sample contained 32% democrats, when they are approximately 34% of the electorate. I don’t recall seeing how respondents were selected/invited to participate.

[Doodley]

84. This poll is of likely voters. That changes the sample. I'm not going to say I know better than

538 that gives this polster nearly 3 out of 3. As for the Libertarian angle. I'm not seeing it. Not saying it isn't there, but I don't see it.

This is what AtlasIntel state:

AtlasIntel was the most accurate
pollster of the 2020 presidential
election in the United States.
Atlas polls had an average error of
only two points and anticipated
election results within the margin
of error in all swing states during
the worst cycle for the US polling
industry in four decades.*

[obamanut2012]

35. Nate Silver literally has his paycheck signed by Peter Thiel

I ignore anything he has to say.

[Abnredleg]

5. ABC has Harris up by 6

Others have her up by 2-5 points.
Look at averages, not individual polls.

It's a close race.

[marmar]

6. This poll doesn't even make the Top 20 on 538's pollster ratings.

[Doodley]

13. It is 22 and that is highly rated at nearly 3 out of 3 stars.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. You really seem to want to accept this poll without questioning it. Nt

[Doodley]

30. Wrong! I asked what's up with the poll!

[Torchlight]

40. Some numbers are up, other numbers are down

That seems to be the conclusion of this one, singular poll.

[Fiendish Thingy]

41. And when others criticize the poll, you defend it.

Look at the evidence and analysis provided, and tell the rest of us your thoughts on “What’s Up?”.

[Doodley]

42. What evidence?

[Fiendish Thingy]

53. None so blind as those who will not see

- pollster’s “high rating” based on a very small number of polls
- pollster is an acknowledged libertarian polling organization
- they oversampled Republicans compared to the actual partisan makeup of the electorate
- this is the only recent national poll to give Trump a lead


So, What’s Up with you accepting and defending this poll without question?

[Doodley]

63. I accept 538 is probably better than I am at rating polls. Where is the evidence the pollster is libertarian?

Where have I defended it?

[Fiendish Thingy]

72. Their libertarian mission statement was posted in this thread.

Also, numerous questions in their poll are undeniably libertarian in nature.

When numerous posters have offered evidence and criticism of this poll and pollster, you have defended it by holding up the 538 ratings and Nate Silver’s praise as evidence of why its results should be accepted.

[Doodley]

83. That was for Atlas Network. Where is the connection between Atlas Network and AtlasIntel? I never quoted Nate Silver!

I feel as if you are attacking me when you accuse me of stating thiings that I did not state. I don't like the poll any more than you do!

[Fiendish Thingy]

97. Apologies- someone else referenced Silver, not you

Did you explore the AtlasIntel website and cross tabs for this poll?

The company is also involved in cryptocurrency and social media micro targeting.

Many of the questions in the poll are clearly libertarian slanted, asking about smaller government, fewer regulations, free market, etc.

Still can’t find how respondents were selected/invited - this was an online only poll.

A 2.7 rating/#22 ranking on 538 (just one rank below the deeply flawed Siena pollster) based on analysis of just 24 polls is nothing to brag about.

Larry Sabato tweeted last week that current polling methodology is so flawed and unreliable, especially for swing states, that they have virtually no predictive value this cycle.

So, with all the information and opinions you have been given, have you figured out “What’s Up?” with this poll yet?

Maybe update your OP with your conclusions?

[Doodley]

111. No probs. Easy to mistake who posts what. My conclusion is that this poll is an outlier and probably BS. .

[obamanut2012]

36. Yup

[-misanthroptimist]

7. In all my years of following (and sometimes laughing at) the polls...

...I have no memory of Atlas. So, I have no idea if they are "highly rated" or by whom they were given that rating, nor whatever methodology determined they should be "highly rated."

Summing up: If you have 15 polls that show one candidate leading and one showing the other candidate ahead, chances are very high that the one is wrong.

[Doodley]

16. We don't have 15 polls vs 1.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[gab13by13]

21. Nate Silver is owned by Peter Thiel.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. Silver is a corrupt hack, and shouldn't be quoted as evidence of anything

Except maybe evidence of corruption.

[Doodley]

34. It isn't a Nate Silver poll! What has Nate Silver got to do with it?

[obamanut2012]

38. Yup, it is a non-American pollster

And, this poll was released over the weekend and is considered an outlier, but people sure want to use it to show Kamala is tanking. Which she isn't.

[Doodley]

43. Good points! Thanks!

[Javaman]

9. highly rated? Atlas poll? never heard of them. nt

[Doodley]

19. check here. Number 22 on 538. That is highly rated.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[yardwork]

25. I notice you asked "what's up" but you're not listening to answers.

It's a good day to watch the sea lions in La Jolla.

[Doodley]

29. I'm waiting for an answer. What is up with that poll? Where is an answer? Attacking X or Nate Silver, questioning if

is highly rated isn't answering my question.

[yardwork]

37. You've received numerous answers.

First, it's not a "highly rated" poll. It's not even in the top twenty.

You claim Nate Silver likes it. He's no longer part of 538 and now works for Peter Thiel, so he's a highly suspect source. Nobody is "attacking him," just pointing out that he's not a reliable source.

Others have noted that this is a very close race so it's not surprising to see a poll like this.

If you want Harris to win, help get out the vote.

[Doodley]

45. Where did I claim Nate Silver likes it? Why are you attacking me? It is highly rated, nearly 3 out of 3 on 538.

[Fiendish Thingy]

74. Perhaps you need to clarify what you mean by "What's Up?"

If you’re asking “should this poll be trusted?” or “Is Trump really leading Harris nationally?”, those questions have been answered.

If you mean something else, then perhaps you should clarify your question.

[Abolishinist]

108. I love the Sea Lions!

It's a good day for that, but please be on the lookout for people and their children bothering them. It has gotten to be quite the problem, especially with them getting too close so they can take their damned selfies.

[Think. Again.]

11. I guess by calling it "highly rated"....

...and asking "what's up with this?" is one way to get it out there in front of people.

[Kingofalldems]

14. Yep.

Pretty obvious.

[obamanut2012]

39. Exactly

[LAS14]

50. That is just a stupid comment. (Note, I'm not saying YOU are stupid.) But...

... it's tiring that so many on DU insist on turning questions into the OP's attempt to publicize a negative idea. Just answer their question!

[Think. Again.]

56. Perhaps you're unaware...

...that as an openly public discussion board, DU is vulnerable to "malicous intruders" (trolls) that are intent on publicizing rightwing talking points and misinformation on Leftwing discussion boards.

DU has a very active MIRT team to combat their efforts, but I believe that when a member believes an OP or poster has slipped past MIRT and gives every indication of being a hostile post (working against the effort to support Democratic candidates), I feel it is up to true DU members to bring attention to those posts and state our concerns, without directly calling out any individual member.

Thanks for playing!

[LAS14]

88. In the absence of clear evidence of hostile intent, why worry about the motivation of the poster?

Why not just answer the question?

[Think. Again.]

91. Because I am not basing my response on evidence...

...I am basing it on my opinion.

[LAS14]

93. Your opinion, to assume hostility in the absence of evidence...

... belies the idea of a Democratic large tent. It fosters division. We don't need more division.

[Think. Again.]

94. If the large tent doesn't welcome opinions...

...why is it large?

[LAS14]

98. I see the beginnings of a vicious circle here. (Vicious cycle? I was never sure.) nt

[Think. Again.]

99. Yeah, they get kinda tiring.

[C_U_L8R]

17. The demographics are totally skewed.

Mostly Repubs and Independents under $100k. Can't take this seriously.

[Midnight Writer]

20. All I know is that we need to keep swinging that hammer.

If we are ahead, we need to work harder to be ahead decisively.

If we are behind, we need to work harder until we win.

We can do this.

[Emrys]

31. Apart from anything else, as ever with polls, especially when comparing them for changes, LOOK AT THE MARGIN OF ERROR

MOE = 2 percentage points

The "expansion" you're freaking out at is 0.8. It could just be noise

Other than that, what methodology did they use for the polls, and what screens did they use - likely voter or what? Whatever they used, did it take into account new registrations etc.?

[bronxiteforever]

33. 4 Non Blondes is What's up

?si=3ljnqjd_xSMqwnQl

[LAS14]

49. What does this mean? nt

[lees1975]

44. You can ignore the "highly rated" by 538, Nate Silver

This is a corporate owned and controlled poll top to bottom. And even if it did not have that built in bias, it would be an outlier in the face of multiple, credible polls showing Harris up by 5-6 points nationally.

Does anyone even consider, when citing this polling data now, that virtually every poll's "factoring data" has been based on having Biden as the candidate? No one has even slightly hinted at how the models would change with a different candidate, and evidence of a completely different level of motivation by voters, hasn't even been considered by a single pollster, that I've read. And yet, the model is now entirely different. I don't even know how they would go about erasing previous data and starting over, but it is very clear that they haven't.

This has upset the media narrative and their moneymaking ratings scheme of Trump, Trump, Trump.

[Doodley]

47. Nate Silver has nothing to do with 538 since last year.

[lees1975]

100. Doesn't make any difference, Atlas is still a corporate owned, commercial marketing poll that leans

way over into Republican politics.

[Aepps22]

46. What's Up With Posting Polls Instead of GOTV Efforts and Links

This race is close and polls will be a mixed bag but what will get Kamala the win is volunteering, donating and making sure your friends and Family members are registered to vote. Polls whether good or bad are data but what we do with the data is up to us.

[LAS14]

48. Doodley, thanks for hanging in there, trying to force...

...rational discussion. It's an interesting question. Too bad you didn't get more to-the-point replies.

[Doodley]

68. That means a lot, thank you! You describe exactly how I feel! I will remember your name!

[LAS14]

89. :-)

[femmedem]

90. I'm popping in to defend you, too.

I am baffled as to why people are attacking you or your post. The poll appears to be an outlier--outliers happen, even with reputable polls--but this race is way closer than it ought to be.

[Doodley]

92. Thank you. I appreciate that! I will remember your name too and watch out for you on the DU highway!

[LAS14]

51. Likewise, I'd like to know what's up with this poll.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219467627 (Kamala gains on Trump in Iowa)

In general, I'd like to understand the whole polling system better.

[Doodley]

67. I lived most my life in the UK. To be credible, polsters must join the British Polling Council and abide by certain

standards. Here, it seems you could literally pull numbers out of your ass and call it a poll!

[Abolishinist]

106. Thanks you for this and your other posts.

Rather than attempt to discredit the poster, why not instead learn more about polling. We're confronted with them all the time, I see nothing wrong with trying to, as you say, understand the polling system better.

[LAS14]

110. Thanks! nt

[kansasobama]

54. Do not shoot the messenger Doodley

I was also concerned. My guess is, it is an international poll, they may have polled more Dems from conservative states. Besides, it has tad bit more Republicans.

Why it is iffy? Harris leads in reproductive rights by only 4, Trump leads in protecting democracy by more.

Peter Thiel fact applies only when Nate says he won't unskew. Thanks Doodley

[Doodley]

65. Thank you for saying so. Yes, this poll looks wrong when you look at those scores on several issues.

[Wiz Imp]

60. They have a track record of right wing bias

The response across the board to this poll and one on the debate show opinion far more favorable to Trump than any other polls out there. It's hard to reconcile their results with observed reality. It's a blatant outlier and I would be shocked if it is remotely accurate.

[Doodley]

64. I agree that the poll about the debate is well out and unlikely IMO. Makes me think this poll is garbage,

but I can't completely dismiss it either, as what were perceived as bad polls in the past proved right (for both parties and in other nations too).

[Wiz Imp]

70. I'll agree that you can't completely disregard any individual poll no matter how outrageous their results

However, you should not allow it to make you worry that it might be real when signs point to it not being reliable. And for the record, in 2022, it was the polls from right wing biased firms which created the "red wave" narrative and we all know how that turned out. The right wing firms' polls showed a far greater enthusiasm for Republicans than existed in reality.

[Doodley]

73. Thank you. I agree and appreciate your comment!

[Brainfodder]

66. I totally believe half+ of the country wants this criminal super whiner.

Edit: Notice the graph making 2% look yuge?

[ibegurpard]

71. Why did you post a question

And then proceed to discount all of the replies?

[Doodley]

78. I haven't seen evidence that this poll is Libertarian, or that Nate Silver has anything to do with it.

I don't have enough evidence to believe that some of those who replied are better qualified than
538 to rate polls. I have agreed with several posters and I have agreed that the poll and details seem unlikely.
But I'm not going to be convinced of things without evidence. I hope that answers your question.

By the way, this is what AtlasIntel claim:

AtlasIntel was the most accurate
pollster of the 2020 presidential
election in the United States.
Atlas polls had an average error of
only two points and anticipated
election results within the margin
of error in all swing states during
the worst cycle for the US polling
industry in four decades.

[Johnny2X2X]

75. It's a total outlier

Of the other 18 polls since the debate, Harris is up 4.3 on average.

[Kingofalldems]

76. Should we give up?

[LearnedHand]

77. Silver is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Peter Thiel

[Doodley]

82. It isn't a Nate Silver poll.

[Kingofalldems]

85. Not really a good try.

[VMA131Marine]

86. It's basically the only national poll that shows Trump ahead

and with a margin that’s increasing.

So, the demographics of their polling sample must be substantially different from the other “mainstream “ polls that show Harris comfortably ahead.

Either, they are geniuses who are the only ones who have tapped into the real sentiment of the nation or their polling sample is fucked up by accident or design. I think design is more likely as they have had two outlier results in a row. And note, the margin of error on their recent result does not include the results of the other polls. So someone is wrong.

[Doodley]

87. Very perceptive answer! Thank you!

[iemanja]

95. The margin of error is 4%, and the result is well within that

which makes the result statistically insignificant.

[Abolishinist]

107. Actually, the margin of error is 2%.

Sample size = 1,775.

[iemanja]

109. Am I looking at a different poll?

National-level poll on debate performances of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election. Data collection: 11 - 12 September 2024; Sample size: 457 likely voters who watched the presidential debate; +/- 4% MOE.

I guess I must be. That seems to be debate watchers.

ETA: My bad. Here it is: National-level poll on vote intention for the 2024 presidential election, presidential approval rating, key topics, and evaluation of the economy and economic expectations. Data collection: 11 - 12 September 2024; Sample size: 1,775 registered voters; +/- 2% MOE.

[dawg]

96. We asked Atlas why they are so far out from other polls ...

they just shrugged.

[Locutusofborg]

101. Two Points

1) I've been following political polls closely for more than two decades and I never heard of the Atlas poll until this year. (That doesn't mean they are bad.)
2) There are ALWAYS outlier polls.in every polling cycle. No one should get their panties all in a twist over a single poll for one cycle.

[Vinca]

102. It's probably part of the Trump Polling Company conglomerate.

[obamanut2012]

104. International, self-selecting demographics, online poll with no published methodology

Definite outlier.

The poll was also very long, and people were asked to survey it via a pop-up ad.

[Kingofalldems]

112. And what's up with this NEW poll?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219470171

[obamanut2012]

113. That is not a legitimate poll/pollster

ABC's poll is, and it has her up a few points.