NFL Spreads, Conference Championships

[Auggie]

Favorite / Spread / Underdog (Home team in CAPS)

KANSAS CITY / 7.5 / Cincinnati

LOS ANGELES / 3.5 / San Francisco

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33160786/bengals-chiefs-49ers-rams-nfl-playoff-game-picks-schedule-guide-bold-predictions-odds-injuries-matchup-keys-more

7.5 points is a lot for a conference game, but the Chiefs might just cover if the Bengals ease up on the late-game pass rush for the sake of coverage.

Mahomes has one of the quickest and strongest releases in football and he throws on the run and/or off-balance as well as anyone. K.C. receivers do a super job of finding openings for Mahomes at the end of their routes too. Nickle and dime packages have to play tight otherwise Mahomes shreds them. Like in baseball, it's nearly impossible to outrun a thrown football.

Tall order for Cincy—defense has to bring their A-game and they have to hound Mahomes with blitzes IMO.

49ers can cover and possibly win with their usual ball-control run game. Beat writers are predicting quick drops and short passes for Garoppolo to counter L.A. pass rushers Miller and Donald, and to account for the possible absence of TWO starting tackles (Trent Williams is questionable with a high-ankle sprain). Fine—pass the ball to Deebo Samuels and George Kittle for five yards and let them run for seven more.

The S.F. defense is relatively healthy and deep at the line and at linebacker. Can they mess with Mathew Stafford's head one more time and sweep the season? Well, they did a great job of disguising their defenses against Aaron Rodgers and shut him down. I think d-coordinator DeMeco Ryans' crew does it again.

My picks: Kansas City to cover and San Francisco to win.

Anyone else?