Seahawks vs Broncos in the Superbowl

[JonLP24]

23. Brian Burke who I mentioned up-thread

wrote up this article after they benched Alex Smith (my thoughts before I paste, I think check-down Smith would have serious problems against the #1 pass D)

Week 13 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: Why Kaepernick Is Right Pick

San Francisco 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh had a difficult decision, and I think he made the right choice by starting Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith. If Kaepernick’s two recent starts are any indication, he has turned what might have already been the best team in the N.F.C. into a prohibitive Super Bowl favorite.

Despite the small sample size, Kaepernick has clearly outplayed Smith this season. Smith has been at his career peak this season, averaging 5.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), compared with a career average of just 4.3 YPA. Kaepernick has averaged 7.4 AYPA this season and has averaged 8.8 AYPA in his two starting opportunities. Those two starts were against the league’s very best and very worst pass defenses: the Bears, who allow only 2.9 AYPA, and the Saints, who allow 6.5 AYPA. Kaepernick actually did better against the Bears.

Kaepernick brings a dimension to the 49ers’ passing game that Smith hasn’t shown. Kaepernick has confidence in his deep reads, while Smith tends to look for receivers on shorter patterns. Kaepernick is fourth in the N.F.L. with 24 percent of his passes attempts to deep routes, classified as greater than 15 yards downfield. This season, only 14 percent of Smith’s passes were deep ones, which ranks 36th in the league. Together with his mobility, Kaepernick’s threat to throw deep makes things difficult for defenses.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/week-13-n-f-l-game-probabilities-why-kaepernick-is-right-pick/

That is from this year, this is Kaepernick is +1.17 above Smith which is very significant. http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB - this should be sorted by deep throws and look at the difference. Kaepernick #9 at 23.5% with Smith all the way down at 39. Kaepernick has thrown 11 total interceptions to 6 teams, 6 of those 11 picks went to Seattle. Seattle is either good at what they do or they have his number but I notice on the last drive he completed a pass that was very similar to a play he was intercepted on, he rifled a pass to Boldin in the end zone that could have easily been picked off if it was just a little off. You need someone to have confidence in their throws but maybe they could have checked down their way to the end zone on the final drive.