Seahawks vs Broncos in the Superbowl

[JonLP24]

22. How do you grade for those things unless you have miles of film?

And even if you do, you still don't know what everyone was supposed to do

Does the QB take what the defense gives him - I can't say for sure with Wilson but he is getting as much bang per throw as you can get.

3rd down is easy - He seems to have good numbers on 3rd down across the board except on 3rd 8-10 where he has 5.44 YPA, 1 INT. Anything more or less he is solid. 3rd down numbers from last year look better, on third & short however he completed just 53%, his YPA dipped to 6.32 on 3rd & 11+. Ironically his strength was 3rd & 8-10. He is 59.1% 7.46 YPA 8 TDS 4 INTS overall for 2013

Managing clock & timeouts I would need film but never saw anything obvious. Same with getting plays called but he does 11 delay of game penalties in last 2 years and 1 false start. I decided to compare with Peyton who only has 2 in the last 2 years but he did have 10 in his first 2 years with 1 false start.

Can Wilson come from behind and win games? He's done plenty of that. In his very first game as a pro he trailed Arizona on the road, he drove them all the way down the field and would have won the game if his targeted receiver didn't drop the ball in the endzone. If you don't count the game against Green Bay last year he threw a 46-yard game winning TD pass to Sidney Rice to defeat New England. He hit Rice again with a 13-yard pass to defeat Chicago in OT. He had a game winning rushing TD against St. Louis. Seattle also trailed Washington in the Wild Card round 14-0 and ended up winning but that was more team effort. In the divisional he and the Seahawks erased a 20-point deficit in under a half. It isn't his fault his defense let Ryan get into FG range off of 2 easy plays.

This year Wilson trailed Carolina 7-6 on the road and hit Kearse with a 43-yard game winning TD. Seattle trailed Tampa 24-7, Wilson scored a rushing and passing TD in the effort to tie it at 24. Seattle kicked the game winning FG in OT. Last night against San Francisco. Houston technically counts a comeback for him but it was Richard Sherman and Tennessee who they only trailed in the first half and Wilson had no TDs but did have 257 yards off of 25/31 passing but I didn't include those.

I'm only doing splits for 2013 but here is more stats on Wilson in 4th Qtr if score is +/- 7 he has 414 yds off of 45 attempts for 9.20 YPA with 3 TDs and 5 INTs - I investigated the interceptions on his losses, one was to San Francisco after the kicker made a FG with 26 seconds left, Seattle started the drive on their own 15, next play was an interception.

His latest one in the scenario was this to Arizona which was very controversial because the amount of force caused looked more like ground than arm but it was bad luck http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000302515/Karlos-Dansby-s-decisive-interception

The first one was on a 4th & 15 in Indianapolis trailing by 6 w/ 1:30 remaining. He escapes a rush from his right side and head towards line of scrimmage and releases the ball right before he is nailed which is picked off by a defender in-front of his target -- http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000257240/Wilson-throws-interception-on-final-drive

You have an interception on a tipped ball (that could be the ground), on off a hail mary, and one on a 4th & 15 about to be sacked. Not exactly throwing it straight to 'em like Carson Palmer.

When trailing he has 921 yards, 65.8%, 7.87 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INT.
When behind by 1-8 points he has 745 yards, 64.6%, 7.76 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT
When behind by 9-16 points he has 75 yards, 75%, 9.38 YPA

Overcome adversity - I'm not really familiar with whose hurt except they missed Percy Harvin for pretty much the entire season.

Can he take a hit? He's been sacked 44 times hit more times, I posted a clip of him getting taken out by an Indy lineman after he released the ball. San Francisco registered 10 hits on him, Arizona hit him 9 times a few weeks prior. These include players such as Bowman, Willis, Justin & Aldon Smith, Brooks, Daryl Washington(3times), and Calais Campbell. I guess he can take a hit because that is quite a lineup.

Can he prolong plays when the pocket breaks down? Obviously, there are highlights of him doing it every week. Here is a clip of doing 3 times, check out that arm strength when he hits Rice running to his right off balance -- http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000265097/Week-7-Russell-Wilson-highlights

Need film to see if he has balls batted down or not and I can't imagine him making it this far if he was unable to make clean ball changes.

When it comes to his teammates, he bought his entire offense an Xbox One. One teammate said he was a little better than Luck & RGIII (during his rookie year). This is a video of him interreacting with teammates on the sidelines, in the huddle, etc. http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Sound-FX-Russell-Wilson/e90c0ae8-1576-4f5e-a80e-4cea7427d90b

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On the subject of yards per pass, it is the most predictive stat if you combine it with defensive ypa you'd have a fairly good prediction model. Brian Burke who understands what stats work and what don't weighs offensive net ypa followed by defensive net ypa and his models are pretty accurate. He posts weekly game probabilities here --- http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/sports/football/conference-championship-probabilities-and-how-the-patriots-run.html?_r=0

He uses more than that but a simplified prediction model takes offensive yppa minus defensive yppa called the YPPA differential. Here are the teams that lead in YPPA differential -- http://mule.he.net/~budsport/pub/killer.php The team that is #2 in the NFL in YPA is facing the #1 AFC in YPA.

More often than not the QB that has a higher YPA than the opposing QB will win the game. If they have it higher than everybody over the course of a season they will have a damn good winning record. Burke himself said that numbers are not the end to the conversation but the beginning but if you're going to use them, better use the right ones.

So by having a top 5 YPA with a 2 1/2 TD-INT ratio after 2 seasons mean he is average though average quarterbacks don't threat those numbers and certainly doesn't start for the team that leads the league in YPPA differential. So what do you use to rate quarterbacks and if it is those questions you asked, I can't see how Wilson fails in any area, really.

On the subject of Jeff George he had about 3 or 4 good seasons, his 1 year in Minnesota is what I'd consider great. Terrific targets in Cris Carter and Randy Moss. From Atlanta-Minnesota he didn't suck.