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AndyS

(14,559 posts)
19. I don't think you know what that means.
Fri Oct 20, 2023, 07:37 PM
Oct 2023

Causation is a comparison of two variables. In this case guns and violence. If one variable changes and the other changes in like manner there is causation.

I'm assuming that neither of us has a degree in statistics. My only claim to first hand knowledge is a past marriage to someone with a degree in fiance which included a LOT of statistics. If your experience is greater I will bow to a refutation but meantime:
To explain this like a 6 year old can understand:

Variable 1, number of guns
Which leads to variable 2, number of gun violence incidents.

In all the research I've found increasing variable 1 increases variable 2. Decreasing variable 1 decreases variable 2. Causation can be been established.

A correlation would be some variable that, while linked to both of the variables but is not causually linked to the other. For instance, guns increase causing a violence increase which is linked to longer wait times at funeral homes. The wait times are correlated but not caused by variable 1.

The largest burden in proving causation is eliminating other variables such as "Probably everywhere" (with no cites or stats or any of the stuff I'm asked for). The shear number of studies in populations of different ethnicity, demographics, economics and geography along with the time proximity to the change pretty well eliminates the other possible variables leaving ONLY the guns.


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Florida recently did the same thing. I do not expect different results. Chainfire Oct 2023 #1
Yes, but they do. louis-t Oct 2023 #2
Isn't it about time more Cops come out saying exactly this? It's a danger to ALL of us. Cops included. flying_wahini Oct 2023 #3
Oh but it gets better bpj62 Oct 2023 #4
Open carry has been legal in many, many states TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #6
Good for them, they got a head start on the killing . . . AndyS Oct 2023 #7
Ha, any stats? TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #9
Well, since you asked . . . AndyS Oct 2023 #13
Open carry isnt the point bpj62 Oct 2023 #31
Constitutional carry TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #5
Elaborate please. AndyS Oct 2023 #8
The response is self explanatory TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #10
Ah, another throwaway post with no substance . . . AndyS Oct 2023 #11
What part did you find confusing? TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #15
It's not confusing, it's empty. AndyS Oct 2023 #17
Objective TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #18
So, the cop who shot Tamir Rice should not have been flagged even though AndyS Oct 2023 #21
"Flagged" how? No individual should get to say someone isn't TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #23
Did you read the wiki page I sent you? AndyS Oct 2023 #25
I'm not suggesting anything TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #29
Since you've given me time AndyS Oct 2023 #30
I compared the years 2015 and 2020. The increase in the rate per 100,000 was 80%. discntnt_irny_srcsm Oct 2023 #12
So gun homicides increased TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #14
I checked nationwide numbers: discntnt_irny_srcsm Oct 2023 #16
I don't think you know what that means. AndyS Oct 2023 #19
I'm trying to understand your post TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #20
That is not what I said. You know it. I was quite explicit in defining the two AndyS Oct 2023 #22
Thanks! TexasDem69 Oct 2023 #24
No, that is not what I said. You know it. AndyS Oct 2023 #26
No doubt it was a complete surprise to them. Turbineguy Oct 2023 #27
Let us hope their next experiment is not mandatory concealed carry. Hermit-The-Prog Oct 2023 #28
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Gun Control & RKBA»State lawmakers made conc...»Reply #19