US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop to Lowest Since September

[progree]

2. It's not what Fed Chair Powell wants to see, oh well

The Fed doesn't think its recession forecast is forecasting recession: Morning Brief, Myles Udland, Yahoo Finance, 12/15/22

In its latest Summary of Economic Projections released Wednesday, Fed officials said they expect GDP growth at the end of next year to stand at just 0.5% while the unemployment rate is set to rise from its current level of 3.7% to 4.6%.

Asked during a press conference following this announcement whether these forecasts — flat growth, rising unemployment — imply a recession hitting the economy next year, Powell demurred.

"I don't think it would qualify as a recession...because you've got positive growth," Powell said.

Though as NBC's Brian Cheung noted in his question to Powell, the Fed's unemployment forecasts suggest some 1.6 million Americans are going to lose their jobs in the next year.

"The expected increase in the unemployment rate between this year and next has never happened without the economy falling into a recession," Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-doesnt-think-its-recession-forecast-is-forecasting-recession-morning-brief-103037537.html