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Economy

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6. It's just really hard to justify near-zero rates when the economy is up around 5% for the year.

Reply to WHITT (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 6, 2022, 09:53 AM

Jan 2022

I agree the inflation picture is messy and there are some causes of it that interest rates wouldn't address, although it wouldn't be a complete failure at reducing inflationary pressures.

But it's hard to say that we really need rates to be as low as they are when the economy is booming as much as it is -- enough to cause records throughout and congestion at our ports, for instance.

Could raising rates to 4% cause stagflation? Ok, raise rates enough, sure. But raising rates up to 0.75-1.00% causing stagflation? Not likely. And it's not like the fed can't stop the process or reverse itself if it works out poorly.

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Hawkish Fed signals it may have to raise rates sooner to fight inflation [View all] progree Jan 2022 OP

Once Again WHITT Jan 2022 #1

We are in essentially zero danger of stagflation unblock Jan 2022 #2

Hmmm WHITT Jan 2022 #3

Yup, GDP growth in 2020 was minus 3.5% progree Jan 2022 #4

Well 2020 sucked, no doubt. But 2021 was huge. unblock Jan 2022 #5

I'm Afraid WHITT Jan 2022 #8

well that's certainly convincing and persuasive... unblock Jan 2022 #10

According To The NBER WHITT Jan 2022 #11

that's correct, except that the economy is already larger than it was before covid hit. unblock Jan 2022 #15

Non Sequitur WHITT Jan 2022 #21

The 2 years combined come to a 0.89%/year growth rate (compare to 2.46%/yr pre-pandemic) progree Jan 2022 #14

if we do a similar analysis for inflation, unblock Jan 2022 #16

Actually I was thinking of adding to my #14 that I do the same thing for inflation -- progree Jan 2022 #17

"Normal" is a different question unblock Jan 2022 #18

And I think we are mostly bouncing back from last year's plunge progree Jan 2022 #19

It's just really hard to justify near-zero rates when the economy is up around 5% for the year. unblock Jan 2022 #6

... WHITT Jan 2022 #7

current estimate is it goes to around 1.0% by the end of 2022: unblock Jan 2022 #9

Eh WHITT Jan 2022 #12

uh, no, you had it right earlier unblock Jan 2022 #13

Wrong WHITT Jan 2022 #20

... unblock Jan 2022 #22

Yep WHITT Jan 2022 #23

There was only one quarter of decline in GDP, Q2 2020, which was followed in Q3 by PLUS 33.8% progree Jan 2022 #24

I'm Afraid You're Doubly Confused WHITT Jan 2022 #26

Aww, the very selective quote technique. And no, "decline" and "slowing" are not the same progree Jan 2022 #29

The Non Sequiturs Abound WHITT Jan 2022 #33

A decline in gdp is a simple definition of a recession unblock Jan 2022 #25

No WHITT Jan 2022 #27

Ok, so the employment factors nber considers are unblock Jan 2022 #28

"without much of a change in inflation" progree Jan 2022 #30

"A slowing economy without any significant reduction in inflation is, by definition, stagflation" progree Jan 2022 #31

The Non Sequiturs Abound WHITT Jan 2022 #32