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Economy

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(54,397 posts)

5. Well 2020 sucked, no doubt. But 2021 was huge.

Reply to progree (Reply #4)

Thu Jan 6, 2022, 09:42 AM

Jan 2022

Here's the inflation-adjusted gdp. Zoom in to 1y or 5y and click each quarter to see the numbers.
Q1 6.3%
Q2 6.7%
Q3 2.3%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

Q4 number hasn't come in yet but here's an estimate:

Blue chip consensus is 5% and gdpnow estimate is over 7%

https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

This is a huge growth rate and more than covers ground lost during 2020.

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Hawkish Fed signals it may have to raise rates sooner to fight inflation [View all] progree Jan 2022 OP

Once Again WHITT Jan 2022 #1

We are in essentially zero danger of stagflation unblock Jan 2022 #2

Hmmm WHITT Jan 2022 #3

Yup, GDP growth in 2020 was minus 3.5% progree Jan 2022 #4

Well 2020 sucked, no doubt. But 2021 was huge. unblock Jan 2022 #5

I'm Afraid WHITT Jan 2022 #8

well that's certainly convincing and persuasive... unblock Jan 2022 #10

According To The NBER WHITT Jan 2022 #11

that's correct, except that the economy is already larger than it was before covid hit. unblock Jan 2022 #15

Non Sequitur WHITT Jan 2022 #21

The 2 years combined come to a 0.89%/year growth rate (compare to 2.46%/yr pre-pandemic) progree Jan 2022 #14

if we do a similar analysis for inflation, unblock Jan 2022 #16

Actually I was thinking of adding to my #14 that I do the same thing for inflation -- progree Jan 2022 #17

"Normal" is a different question unblock Jan 2022 #18

And I think we are mostly bouncing back from last year's plunge progree Jan 2022 #19

It's just really hard to justify near-zero rates when the economy is up around 5% for the year. unblock Jan 2022 #6

... WHITT Jan 2022 #7

current estimate is it goes to around 1.0% by the end of 2022: unblock Jan 2022 #9

Eh WHITT Jan 2022 #12

uh, no, you had it right earlier unblock Jan 2022 #13

Wrong WHITT Jan 2022 #20

... unblock Jan 2022 #22

Yep WHITT Jan 2022 #23

There was only one quarter of decline in GDP, Q2 2020, which was followed in Q3 by PLUS 33.8% progree Jan 2022 #24

I'm Afraid You're Doubly Confused WHITT Jan 2022 #26

Aww, the very selective quote technique. And no, "decline" and "slowing" are not the same progree Jan 2022 #29

The Non Sequiturs Abound WHITT Jan 2022 #33

A decline in gdp is a simple definition of a recession unblock Jan 2022 #25

No WHITT Jan 2022 #27

Ok, so the employment factors nber considers are unblock Jan 2022 #28

"without much of a change in inflation" progree Jan 2022 #30

"A slowing economy without any significant reduction in inflation is, by definition, stagflation" progree Jan 2022 #31

The Non Sequiturs Abound WHITT Jan 2022 #32