If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately? [View all]
Some facts:
Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.
As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.
The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.
Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!
For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html
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