Pennsylvania is critical in 2020. Here's how Trump could win or lose it.

[DeminPennswoods]

6. Philadelphia county needs to turnout as well

I saw a chart where turnout in Philadelphia was lower for the first time in years in 2016 than previous presidential election years. If Philadelphia turns out at the same rate as the rest of the state, Dems win comfortably.

Something else happened in the mid-terms, too. Gov Wolf won Beaver County which is full of the Trump voter demographic and votes that way. When looking over the individual voting precincts, I was very surprised at the number of votes Wolf got in Republican areas. I think it's because Wolf governs in a no nonsense way, supports policies that generally help "regular folks" and finds ways to work with the GOP controlled state legislature to get these policies passed. Tells me that voters don't "hate" government, but they want gov't to work effectively, efficiently and in their interests.