Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

lees1975

(6,238 posts)
1. Since I had trouble believing that Biden was really trailing the way the polling data was tracking,
Mon Aug 12, 2024, 09:48 PM
Aug 2024

I don't put much stock in this analysis either.

I think opinions and attitudes about Trump have been baked in for a long time, and the only factor that gives him any chance at all to win an election at this point, especially after the fit he threw when he lost last time, is the variable created by people who tend to vote Republican no matter how bad the candidate. I think Americans are tired of the lies, the tirades, the name calling, the lack of substance and the crimes, and regardless of the enthusiasm level, Biden was on track for a solid win like he got in 2020. Most of these polls aren't taking into consideration an enthusiasm gap among Republicans that has produced over 20% of a primary vote going to others, even after they've dropped out.

While I agree that this surge of enthusiasm over Harris and Walz should not trigger overconfidence, I don't have much confidence in their analysis. The differences between the two sides in this one are pretty stark and clear. There's not going to be a lot of bouncing back and forth.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Latest Discussions»Editorials & Other Articles»BTRTN: Buckle Up for the ...»Reply #1