BTRTN: Buckle Up for the Longest 85 Days [View all]
Born To Run The Numbers cautions that despite the extraordinary surge in energy that Harris and Walz have created for the Democrats, it must not distort the true picture or breed overconfidence. There are still 85 days to go, crazy stuff can still happen, and the race is still an absolute dead heat. Most worrisome: Donald Trump is desperate and he is turning meaner and uglier every day. Read “BTRTN: Buckle Up for the Longest 85 Days.”
https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/08/11/btrtn-buckle-up-for-the-longest-85-days/
Excerpts: "I am inherently neither an optimist nor pessimist. But there may be something to calling me an oppositomist. When I encounter gloom, doom, and despair, my instinct is to try to buck people up. And when I see giddy, delirious glee, I get nervous.
Today, I am wary that Democrats are on such a high about their amazing change in fortune that they are losing sight of just how close this election is going to be. Ebullience begets confidence, and confidence breeds hubris. Hubris fails to turn out the vote...
"Donald Trump seems utterly befuddled. None of his go-to tricks are working. None of his insults cut, none of his labels stick, none of his shtick is worth a lick. He is being out-rallied, out-fund-raised, and often even out-polled. His VP pick is so underpowered that the pundits are calling him “J.V. Vance.” He makes Dan Quayle look like Thomas Jefferson. Heck, J.D. Vance makes Mike Pence look like People Magazine’s “Sexiest Man Alive.”
"But history tells me that the time between today and November 5 will be measured in dog years as we ride an emotional roller coaster that will whipsaw from optimism to heartbreak faster than you can flip from MSNBC to FOX...
"Why? Three reasons...
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