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progree

(11,989 posts)
10. S&P 500 closed Monday 5/12 at 5844, up 1.1% since election day, down 2.6% from the inauguration eve,
Mon May 12, 2025, 09:17 PM
May 12

down 0.6% year-to-date,

and down 4.9% from its all-time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19. (we were down 18.9% at the 4/8 close, nearing a bear market which is 20% down. )

Details at https://www.democraticunderground.com/111699775
pinned at the top of the Economy Group, which I update daily.

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow closed above their election day levels for the first time in months, but both are below their inauguration eve levels.

My understanding is the U.S. tariffs on most imports from China will be 30% according to several articles -- a universal 10% tariff plus an additional 20% tariff that was imposed months ago for China's alleged role in fentanyl supply. Special levies on steel, aluminum, and autos still remain in effect. That's still quite inflationary and disruptive of trade and supply chains. That isn't good for the economy, and this so-called "pause" is for just 90 days, not "permanent". So I'm expecting the market to start sliding again when the economic realities settle in.

The OP article also says "the 30% rate during the pause"

Tomorrow the CPI inflation report for April comes out (8:30 AM EDT), and a 0.3% month over month increase in both the headline "everything" CPI measure and the core measure is expected (an annualized pace of more than 3.6%), according to Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-cpi-report-expected-to-show-first-signs-of-trump-tariffs-inflationary-impact-185747805.html).

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