She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data

[Takket]

43. yeah... this "math" is trash..........

Here are two things said in the article.........

"No, it’s not a coin flip."

"But to be generous—and to keep the math conservative—let’s assume each of the 88 counties had a simple 50/50 chance of flipping red or blue."

So... he says it is not a coin flip, and then models it as a coin flip. At this point, you can safely closer your browser window and go on about your day.

What he has given you is the odds of flipping a coin 88 times, and getting heads all 88 times.

This is meaningless. Because this is not how elections work. There are no coin flips here. People make a concision choice of who to vote for, and those votes are counted up.

And as you can see here, 89% of counties voted "more red" in 2024 than they did in 2020:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

And that should be telling you it would actually be WEIRD for Harris to be flipping red counties to blue, when the shift to the right was in 89% of counties. What few counties she did better in were either already blue and stayed blue, or were red but she didn't do well enough to overcome the deficit between 2020 and 2024.

No coin flips. Dumb/disengaged voters absolutely killed us. your "i never follow politics because both sides are awful but my aunt of facebook says Harris will bring endless war" idiots.

for a REAL analysis of what happened: try this. (Hint: this is what the DNC is going to use to figure out why we lost and how to fix it, not fairy tales).

https://catalist.us/whathappened2024/