About the Jobs report than boosted the Markets

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. As to the market the last two weeks, I read some analysis

It stated that the rise was due to a flood of amateur investors that surprised the pros. There is a lot of negative sentiment among the barely active investors, who mindlessly set their 401k at 60/40 stocks/bonds because their advisers automatically advise laziness (which is not bad advice for low-info long horizon types). But active amateurs love to "buy the dip". And some indicators where indicating oversold conditions. Today Cramer is saying he thinks there won't be a recession.

Too many pros and too many amateurs are tuning out the abnormality of the current situation and proceeding as if their indicators are nomrally applicable.

Steve Liesman was saying separately that this is not normal because the tariffs are a "supply shock", not the usual demand slowdown of usual recessions. He pointed to the 70s as the most recent example of a supply shock. Then the OPEC oil embargo was applied. That lead to stagflation as we know, and as we should be wary of now.