About the Jobs report than boosted the Markets

[WSHazel]

3. The "market analysis" stories are usually nonsense

Nothing in that jobs report was earth shattering either way, and because there was a big downside risk priced in, the market is up today. But the dollar is down and bonds are down, so don't read too much into it.

I spend my day talking to people in corporate finance, and I am meeting someone that works in capital markets this afternoon. NO ONE has any idea how to predict exactly what and when the damage will be from tariffs and, more importantly, the regulatory uncertainty Trump is creating. The reason no one knows exactly what will happen is because no elected government leader has done something this stupid in the last 90 years. Everyone just knows it will be bad. Brexit is the only thing even in the ballpark, and Trump's actions are much, much worse for the economy.

A lot of people also believe we are in a recession. I have made several posts in the last week that I can not figure out why assets moved the way they did from 4/21 through even today. It is like there is a lot more capital suddenly in the market, except the fund flows overseas are pretty obvious, so where did this new capital come from? Puzzling.