General Discussion

Deminpenn

(16,243 posts)

70. All polls are essentially "opt in" because

Mon Sep 16, 2024, 07:12 PM

Sep 16

when a person is contacted by a pollster, they either opt to respond or opt not to.

Pollsters collect demographic information at the end so they can correctly weight the responses as to minimize potential bias.

As for 538, iirc, they use a bunch of fudge factors in rating the pollsters. I don't take their ratings seriously. Maybe you shouldn't either.

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****BRAND NEW POLL**** Kamala Harris Opens Up Eight Point Lead [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 OP

Orange Bastard is about to fucking shit his pants at the latest news. Piss on that fucking orange turd. SoFlaBro Sep 16 #1

That was my first thought twitter storm incoming Tribetime Sep 16 #28

Orange Bastard dogfucked his chances with the stupid assed shit he says and fucking does. SoFlaBro Sep 16 #29

Love your phasing!❤️ kimbutgar Sep 16 #52

expect Trump and Shady Vance to go all in with the racist rhetoric BlueWaveNeverEnd Sep 16 #71

Time for another assassination attempt. He'll make history as the only president/former to get shot at three times! mucholderthandirt Sep 17 #82

Let's go!!! nt LexVegas Sep 16 #2

Sweet reality setting in, at long last! GreenWave Sep 16 #3

It seems the more attempts at trying to kill him by his own people, the higher her numbers go. Funny that..LOL. n/t SheilaAnn Sep 16 #15

Evidently.... Butterflylady Sep 16 #4

This is pre assassination attempt. jimfields33 Sep 16 #54

So what? Kingofalldems Sep 16 #61

I was replying to the reply above that said the assassination jimfields33 Sep 16 #69

When epreic01 Sep 16 #5

Great news, but take nothing for granted. GOTV! Wednesdays Sep 16 #6

Really? PCIntern Sep 16 #59

Naturally, us political junkies won't stay home Wednesdays Sep 16 #60

Those types of people aren't reading DU Sugarcoated Sep 16 #63

Exactly. That's why it's up to us to get them out to vote. nt Wednesdays Sep 16 #67

Everyone at DU is working their asses off Sugarcoated Sep 16 #68

And I'm here to encourage their awesome work. Wednesdays Sep 16 #72

It's not encouraging kcr Sep 17 #81

Amen! nt Wednesdays Sep 17 #84

No brakes! Hela Sep 16 #7

3 point swing from last round for this pollster Johnny2X2X Sep 16 #8

It's not a highly rated pollster. everyonematters Sep 16 #9

This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 #10

True but at least a positive trend kansasobama Sep 16 #11

Very low rated to be specific NoRethugFriends Sep 16 #12

Highly rated by whom? Other pollsters or media outlets that use specific pollsters? lees1975 Sep 16 #16

538 has it rated 232, or 1.2 stars iemanja Sep 16 #25

538's credibility is shot to hell. lees1975 Sep 16 #34

As opposed to what? iemanja Sep 16 #36

538 is an aggregate, not a "statistical analysis." lees1975 Sep 16 #40

which? iemanja Sep 16 #41

They're not trustworthy, they haven't been accurate and I place no value on their analysis, or RCP or BTRTN. lees1975 Sep 16 #73

They really don't. Demsrule86 Sep 16 #76

At least if their low rating isn't just due to sloppy polling, but poor modeling... RidinWithHarris Sep 16 #39

true iemanja Sep 16 #42

It's looking like the RFK Jr. boost was a dead cat bounce! nt Shermann Sep 16 #13

"dead bear". Ellipsis Sep 16 #14

Of course! The dead bear bounce! Shermann Sep 16 #18

And dead whale. And dog. And worm. dchill Sep 16 #31

Never heard of Big Village Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #17

They're not. It's an opt-in online panel survey. Self Esteem Sep 16 #21

All polls are essentially "opt in" because Deminpenn Sep 16 #70

I don't take this poll seriously. It's on par with SurveyMonkey. Self Esteem Sep 16 #78

I don't take poll rankings seriously Deminpenn Sep 17 #79

I think the best way to evaluate a poll is to review their past successes. Self Esteem Sep 17 #86

Past is not prologue Deminpenn Sep 18 #87

Copout argument really. Self Esteem Sep 18 #88

Agree, not a great outfit. MontanaFarmer Sep 16 #27

Agree. Let's see if within the next several days the other A+ rated polls you mentioned will reflect such. onetexan Sep 16 #47

Yeah, Not Good. GB_RN Sep 16 #50

It's the trend that matters. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 16 #66

Love it! Doodley Sep 16 #19

Nope, not a legit pollster obamanut2012 Sep 16 #20

So you say. Kingofalldems Sep 16 #24

I say it because it is true, it is a fact obamanut2012 Sep 16 #45

They're legit. Legitimacy is relative. dchill Sep 16 #33

No, it isn't -- it isn't even a poll obamanut2012 Sep 16 #46

How is a survey not a poll? dchill Sep 16 #49

The respondents are recruited online DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 #51

"Legitimacy is relative" -- is that sort of like "alternative facts"? onenote Sep 16 #55

It's a fact. No alternative. It's "legitimate enough."... dchill Sep 16 #77

In line with Iowa poll showing a potential 4% shift towards Harris Tribetime Sep 16 #22

Good catch . DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 #48

How about the handful of swing states that are going to decide the election? groundloop Sep 16 #56

The Iowa pollster was at 9% most everyone else had a close race Tribetime Sep 16 #57

I doubt she's up 9 points nationally DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 #58

They are a legit pollster Johnny2X2X Sep 16 #23

The gold standard IA poll has Harris down four DemocratSinceBirth Sep 16 #53

I don't understand what you mean by "impute those numbers." Sogo Sep 18 #90

Do we know if they take into account newly registered voters? That could be a game changer. 33taw Sep 16 #26

I've seen two pieces on this, and the answer is no. lees1975 Sep 16 #43

Big outlier RandySF Sep 16 #30

It's an outlier but only by a few points ColinC Sep 16 #35

It is not a legitimate poll obamanut2012 Sep 16 #44

It's a legitimate poll but not the best one... ColinC Sep 16 #74

Agree Johnny2X2X Sep 17 #83

If you believe in MOE, then these results are within that of other polls Deminpenn Sep 17 #80

Mr. trump's September is looking worse than his August. Torchlight Sep 16 #32

I think the likely voter polls have the most upside for Harris ToxMarz Sep 16 #37

Queue the panic buttons at ffr Sep 16 #38

Uh oh I smell another assassination attempt. live love laugh Sep 16 #62

Kick this one. Kingofalldems Sep 16 #64

My key take away is that it seems like she is 50+% now JCMach1 Sep 16 #65

I was the 100th rec...going to play the lottery. Thanks for this. Demsrule86 Sep 16 #75

3 big polls today Johnny2X2X Sep 17 #85

whose the poller & are they reliable? onetexan Sep 18 #89