Let's talk about why Trump's distorted numbers actually matter.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about why Trump's distorted numbers actually matter.

The recent economic reports coming from the administration have been called out as faulty and distorted by everybody from armchair economists to the big players at investment houses and even by people at the Federal Reserve. In short, the numbers are garbage. Because the criticism is widespread, it's led to a few questions. And this is one of the more interesting ones to me because it hits a wide array of topics.

“Belle, I'm not sure I understand why some people are mad at the recent inflation report being wrong. I get it. The numbers are bad and skewed to a number that would be more favorable for Trump. But pretty much everybody has said that it did occur or at least it could have occurred because Trump's team didn't have accurate numbers and played fill in the blank. So it's an obviously bad estimate. Okay, but why are people mad and why does it matter?”

So yes, the bad report was made with a lot of missing data, but it didn't have to be done that way. There are far more accurate ways to estimate the inflation rate. Pretty much all other ways are more accurate to be honest.

However, that alone isn't the problem and what made people mad. The Trump administration is acting like 2.7 is the real number. They aren't telling people it's a bad estimate. They're actually saying that prices have come down when that isn't even what that number means. It simply means they're rising more slowly. But again, that's based on the bad estimate. That's the really big problem.

Acting like this is an accurate number and indicating you're going to base policy on it. Why? Two reasons. first is that somewhere out there somebody made a financial decision based on these numbers. That decision may have been made differently if Trump had told his base that the numbers were distorted by a lack of data. But then there's the even bigger, more far-reaching reason. Trump is now acting like 2.7% is the inflation rate. If the numbers were distorted by holding the rates fixed, then the next report very well could show a massive jump. Let's just say the real rate is currently 3%. Trump is telling people it's 2.7%. What happens if next month it's 3.2%? Do we think that Trump will want to admit to a jump that big or will there be another gap in data for some reason that allows him to pretend it's lower? Do we honestly believe he'll report a half a point jump?

This is the reason politicians have historically avoided playing around with these numbers. The numbers don't care about your rhetoric. If they start to show that your policies are bad, your policies don't get better because you skew the numbers. In fact, the skewed numbers lower motivation to change policies. That delay in changing policies creates even worse numbers. Trump created uncertainty about the estimates. People are mad because most don't believe he'll adjust his policies as he should and instead will try to party math the economic numbers which will just make things worse.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[rampartd]

1. anyone making business decisions based on trump's numbers

deserves everything that happens

[wolfie001]

2. fat orange imbecile cooking the books

MSM touting them as evidence of a roaring economy is an even bigger crime. F6cking joke.