What do you make of the poll that shows that 15% of Bernie supporters will vote

[Poiuyt]

for trump:

In a recent ABC News-Washington Post poll, an astonishing 15% of Sanders' voters said they would support Trump in November. To Sanders, who bristles at the suggestion that his prolonged and bitter challenge to Clinton in 2016 helped facilitate Trump's election, this should be a concerning number.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/opinions/you-have-a-lot-to-be-proud-of-senator-sanders-axelrod/index.html

That seems like a really high percentage. If it's true, would they be voting for trump out of spite?

[gibraltar72]

1. I' don't believe that.

I believe like children they are holding their breath until they turn blue.

[Cartaphelius]

11. Clearly at least 15%

of Bernie's supporters are simply officially stupid or worse.

[SBoy]

30. Language like this aren't doing anything to bring them into the Biden camp

[ahoysrcsm]

34. If I were doing something stupid, I would be upset with the person telling me...

but would understand later why they were pointing out my stupidity...

[still_one]

2. I think some people are lying to the pollsters

[MineralMan]

3. I Reckon Naught to It.

Last edited Fri Apr 3, 2020, 10:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Or Nowt, depending on where you are.

[Louis1895]

4. I think they are slimy crossover voters

They are voting for Bernie in the primaries to mess up the Democratic nomination and sow division. They never intend to vote for the Democrat, no matter who wins the nomination. They will vote for Trump.

[PubliusEnigma]

5. Spitefaces

[DenverJared]

6. About 25% of Sanders' supporters will not vote for the nominee

Fortunately, 25% of 30% is a small number and can be easily replaced by centrist independents and center-right republicans very easily if Biden doesn't cave in and do something stupid like embracing medicare for all.

Embracing Bernie's policies won't win Bernie's 25% disgruntled supporters and will cost far more votes in the center.

[redstatebluegirl]

7. It is what they did last time.

Or stayed home, or voted for Jill Stein. They are not loyal to our party, we need to stop pandering to them.

[The Magistrate]

8. I Expect It Honestly Reflects Present Intentions, Sir

The proportion will doubtless dwindle as Nivember nears, that kind of voting out of spite usually does.

It reflects two things, I expect.

First, a number of people who vote for Sanders never intend to vote for him in the general election. The most flagrant example was West Virginia in 2016, when some 40% of people who voted for Sanders in the primary told exit pollsters they meant to vote for the cheap thung Trump even if sanders got the nomination.

Second, there is a strain of nihilism that runs deep in 'further left' types, that can make such apparently self-defeating actions make sense to those caught up in the full implications of revolutionary politics.

The 'further left' traditionally take as their chief enemy parties and political figures of the center left, rather than parties and figures of the right. This is because a strong center-left party balks any possibility of revolution. It will have the allegiance of most working people, because it will bring them real benefits in their lives, and by doing so, will shut off influence of the 'further left' by making it clear measures well short of the desperate expedients the 'further left' prescribes for improving the lot of working people are not necessary.

Because center-left parties do uphold the present order of society, the 'further left' sees them as obstacles to its desires quite as much as any reactionary party on the right. Thus you have the 'not a dime's worth of difference' line that views our two major parties as interchangeable. Since the 'further left' cannot comprehend how working people could possibly form an honest attachment to rightist parties, their view comes to be that center-left parties are their chief obstacle to mass support from working people, and they imagine that if center-left parties are broken, they will inherit the mass support of working people, and thus become predominant. Then it will be the time to deal with the reactionary right, but until it is the 'further left' which has undisputed leadership of working people, the reactionary right cannot be dealt with properly.

Properly, here, indicating a policy guided by the slogan quite popular in the radical salad days of the seventies: 'What's the solution? Revolution!' Few nowadays on the 'further left' dream of an actual, barricades and snipers and car-bombs sort of armed revolution, but they do envision a complete overthrow of existing economic and social arrangements. One of the things they fail to understand about working people, and people on the lower rungs of the economic scale generally, is that people who have not much but do have a little are extremely reluctant to put the little they have at risk, and they know that in turmoil and tumult that little will be at risk. There are strains of the 'further left' which do have some understanding of this, and their view is that working people must be made to lose that little they have now, and lose it to the unmitigated predation of the reactionary right. Only then, when they have nothing to lose, will working people be ready for revolution under the banner of the 'further left'. This provides such people still another reason to oppose and demolish center left parties, as these do mitigate the suffering the right would impose on working people, and so are the chief force in balking revolution. These elements view an initial triumph of the reactionary right as an essential step in their own program to achieve revolution, and so are actually quite pleased by the reactionary right achieving political success at the expense of center-left parties.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[thucythucy]

16. This makes a lot of sense.

Last edited Fri Apr 3, 2020, 10:40 PM - Edit history (2)

I used to run into this sort of thinking eons ago when I was an undergraduate. Often there would be a meeting of some campus group tackling an issue like racism or foreign policy, and there would be folks from Revolutionary Communist Youth or the Spartacist League or some such doing whatever they could to disrupt so that the whole meeting would turn into people listening to them harangue us about we weren't "true revolutionaries" and weren't tackling "the root of the problem" or whatever.

It has only recently occurred to me to tie Sanders into this, and I wonder now about how much his stint with the Socialist Workers Party informs his current ideology. In any case we dodged a bullet when Bernie got wiped in the primaries--given how heavily infiltrated the SWP was (one report I read said that fully a third of its members in the 1970s were FBI informants) there has to be material in the files on Bernie which no doubt would have surfaced during the general. Not to mention: the SWP has quite the troubled history when it comes to women's issues and sexual assault by its members.

Always glad to read your posts.

Best wishes.

[The Magistrate]

17. The Attitude Is Unfortunately Common, Ma'am

It takes on especially acute form among people with an explicit attachment to Marxism. And yes, Sanders has form as a Marxist, dating from his college days, and its lineaments can still be glimpsed through his speeches and actions. Marx was a decent diagnostician, and there is much that is quite useful to be gathered from his writings concerning his own time. But he was lousy at prescriptions, and a damned poor prophet. It is of course no part of Sanders' intent to establish some dictatorship of the proletariat on the lines many think Marxism enjoins on its followers, but he does still follow the teaching in taking the class struggle as the chief object of politics, to which all else must be subordinate, and takes the classic revolutionist's view, dating to the early twentieth century and the rise of Labour and Social Democrat parties, that these should not be allowed to succeed in diverting the workers from the revolutionary change Marx predicted must come.

[Gothmog]

25. In 2016, 25% of sanders supporters did not vote for Hillary Clinton

These was due to many of the factors listed above in the Magistrate's post and due to the fact that Russia mounted a very effective campaign by releasing DNC emails during the National Convention and stirring up sanders delegates to act up and hurt the National Convention. The researchers have looked at the sanders supporters who voted for trump and the results show that these supports were not really democrats, did not like President Obama and were racists. sanders failure to fully support Clinton in the general election also contributed to this.

I do not doubt the number cited in the OP and fear that we need to focus on turning out the base and appealing to more moderate voters in order to defeat trump

[Demsrule86]

45. +1000

Well done...

[treestar]

40. They overlook that in the disorder of the revolution

anything can happen, and a far-right government could prevail at the end of it. Totalitarians and the order they would represent look better to a society that is falling apart.

[Demsrule86]

46. This is excellent...as usual.

[samsingh]

9. a sad wow.

[samnsara]

10. they were trumpers anyway and probably wouldnt even vote for BS if he was the nom..

..BS camp had a large # of fake supporters just to make noise and trouble..Im sure they are everywhere.

[William769]

12. Who cares

[beastie boy]

13. I suspect half of them are just posing as Brnie supporters, for one reason or another.

The other half? They are probably the same kids who were partying on Florida's beaches a couple of weeks ago. They are not very interested in voting anyway.

[Hortensis]

14. It's the usual. Those of Sanders's 15% who are my age have

been voting to sabotage Democrats going on 50 years now. Their proportion among the population as a whole (not just Sanders' current share) doesn't change all that much between elections and moves between parties. Some age out, others come of age.

Far left or right, they always have very high-minded ideals and a true understanding of what has to be done -- before it's too late! (And there is always a "before it's too late" for them.)

This is very unlike all majorities, who are corrupted by democracy's requirement to cooperate and compromise. As a result, they can never be "won," more than at best rarely and very temporarily. We will always disappoint and betray those who briefly allow themselves to hope for better from us.

[Indykatie]

15. That's an Improvement over 2016 - Polls Show 20% - 25% Didn't Vote For Hillary n/t

[comradebillyboy]

18. It's really better than I would have expected. I thought it would

be more like 30%.

[FloridaBlues]

19. He will make that up in getting Indies and former trump supporters

Some people just won't cast votes for the Democratic nominee with Bernie people.

[Dopers_Greed]

20. A lot of non-Democrats voted for Sanders

So that probably factors in to the number.

[shadowmayor]

23. Agree

Thank you for that! Folks here can't seem to comprehend that Bernie attracts a number of voters, including republicans who would never vote for the democratic nominee. It's called cross-over - only it's not the wamby pamby wobbly idiots in the center. There are independents, greens, socialists, and yes republicans who favor Bernie but want nothing to do with the democratic party.

[Demsrule86]

36. Sure he does...they vote for him in he primary but not the General would he to be the nominee.

It is called operation chaos...those GOP types or moderate or what have you will vote for Biden but never Bernie in a General.

[relayerbob]

21. Not to worry

Even if they do, it represents less than 2% of the total voters. Biden will more than make up for that with independents and disgusting moderate republicans.

I say ignore them, they probably wouldn't have voted for Sanders either.

[BlueLucy]

22. Don't care.

[Gothmog]

24. In 2016, 25% of sanders supporters did not vote for Hillary Clinton

There are good studies on why sanders supporters did not support Hillary Clinton in 2016 and these studies tell us a great deal about the sanders supporters described in the polling cited in the OP. The facts are that 25% of sanders supporters helped to elect trump by either voting for trump, voting for a third party candidate like Stein (who like sanders was supported by Russia) or stayed home.

Link to tweet

This is based on the Cooperative Congressional Election survey https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people. (For perspective, a run-of-the-mill survey measuring Trump's job approval right now has a sample of 800 to 1,500.)

It appears that the sanders supporters who voted for trump where (I) not really Democrats, (ii) did not like President Obama and (iiii) were racists

Link to tweet

Party seems to have had something to do with it — Sanders-Trump voters were much less likely than Sanders-Clinton or Sanders-third party voters to have been Democrats. Likewise, approval of President Barack Obama appears to be related — Sanders-Trump voters approved of Obama much less than other Sanders primary voters.

Link to tweet

And then there is race. Nearly half of Sanders-Trump voters disagree with the idea that "white people have advantages."

Link to tweet

This tracks with broader observations about election 2016 — for example, as I wrote last week, in general, the larger a state's general-election Trump vote, the less likely its residents are to perceive a lot of discrimination in the world, according to data from the Public Religion Research Institute. And another postelection study — co-authored by Schaffner — found a "relatively strong indication that racism and sexism were more important in 2016 than they had been in previous elections."

These are voters that the Democratic Party should not be courting or counting on. There is nothing that Biden or the party is going to do to win over these voters. Appeasing these voters will only alienate the base of the party such as voters who are proud to be Democrats, who approve of President Obama and who are not racists.

I do not feel like appeasing these voters. The only thing that will make these voters happy is the party making sanders the nominee over the objections of 70% of the party

[Demsrule86]

38. Excellent posts. Wish I could like it...

[Gothmog]

43. Thank you

I like backing my posts up with facts

[tblue37]

26. Most were probably not Democrats to begin with. nt

[Runningdawg]

27. From the online comments I've seen lately, I would expect it to be much higher.

Some folks have lost their damn minds.

[fleabiscuit]

28. No different than the last election. nt

[onecaliberal]

29. Let's be clear, anyone who would vote for trump is not a democrat.

[LizBeth]

31. 15% of supporters were never Democrats and just wanted to mess with our primary. 15% is half of

Sanders supporter.

[qwlauren35]

32. DINOs

I would bet that the 15% who will vote for Trump only registered as Democrat to vote for Bernie, and are truly Independents or Republicans. Bernie's message has reached across party lines.

[Demsrule86]

39. No, they are shit stirrers... operation chaos. Those Republicans who will vote for the nominee

in November are Biden supporter and would not vote for Sanders in the General.

[Gothmog]

33. The sanders supporters who voted for trump in 2016 were mainly racists who hated President Obama

The facts are that 25% of sanders supporters helped to elect trump by either voting for trump, voting for a third party candidate like Stein (who like sanders was supported by Russia) or stayed home

Link to tweet

This is based on the Cooperative Congressional Election survey https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people. (For perspective, a run-of-the-mill survey measuring Trump's job approval right now has a sample of 800 to 1,500.)

It appears that the sanders supporters who voted for trump where (I) not really Democrats, (ii) did not like President Obama and (iiii) were racists

Link to tweet

Party seems to have had something to do with it — Sanders-Trump voters were much less likely than Sanders-Clinton or Sanders-third party voters to have been Democrats. Likewise, approval of President Barack Obama appears to be related — Sanders-Trump voters approved of Obama much less than other Sanders primary voters.

Link to tweet

And then there is race. Nearly half of Sanders-Trump voters disagree with the idea that "white people have advantages."

Link to tweet

This tracks with broader observations about election 2016 — for example, as I wrote last week, in general, the larger a state's general-election Trump vote, the less likely its residents are to perceive a lot of discrimination in the world, according to data from the Public Religion Research Institute. And another postelection study — co-authored by Schaffner — found a "relatively strong indication that racism and sexism were more important in 2016 than they had been in previous elections."

These are voters that the Democratic Party should not be courting or counting on. There is nothing that Biden or the party is going to do to win over these voters. Appeasing these voters will only alienate the base of the party such as voters who are proud to be Democrats, who approve of President Obama and who are not racists.

I do not feel like appeasing these voters. The only thing that will make these voters happy is the party making sanders the nominee over the objections of 70% of the party

[mathematic]

37. I'm most concerned with them spreading lies and anti-liberal propaganda from the left

Regular voters will get discouraged by the constant bombardment of negative stories about democrats, liberals, and biden from people that outwardly express similar values (The argument comes in the form of "I'm a progressive and we won't see meaningful progressive change until we destroy the democratic party&quot .

This happened in '16. It'll happen again in '20. The only difference now is that they're better at it. We're already seeing popular forums on reddit that were supporting sanders gradually shift to a "burn it all down" message. Regular sanders supporters subscribe to these forums to get sanders news and slowly get indoctrinated to extremist anti-liberalism. The problem isn't the 15% that say they won't vote for Biden. The problem is that these 15% are actively (and if history is any guide, successfully) trying to convince other people not to vote for Biden.

[mikelgb]

41. I know more people who have cited this poll than

Bernie supporters who say won't vote for the nominee (which is 0)

[The Magistrate]

42. However, Sir, There Is Solid Data

Establishing that in 2016, fully a quarter of 'Bernie' voters did not cast a vote for our Party's nominee, Mrs. Clinton, in the general election. About half of these voted for the cheap thug, the rest for the Green or the Libertarian candidate (a vote for the latter being, on reflection, as odd for supporters of a Socialist as a vote for even a 'blue-collar billionaire').

So 'Bernie' devotees have form in this regard. However the current polling cited seems to show a diminution of intensity among the man's fans, which bodes well for the prospect that Sanders' jihad against the 'Democratic Establishment' will not prove as damaging and disruptive as it was four years ago. The reduction of expressed intensity jibes with the reduction in turn-out among his most supportive demographic groups in the current primaries.







"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Gothmog]

44. 7% of Sanders supporters say they'd vote for Trump against Biden

Link to tweet

[BlueIdaho]

47. We go to war with the army we have

Not with the army we want. If that’s their choice - fine. We have a monster to slay and no time to plead with the reluctant.

[ibegurpard]

48. Nothing

The PUMAs were the same or more in 08