This morning 538 updated their odds of winning the nomination. They have now forecast...

[George II]

....that Sanders has ZERO chance of winning the nomination.

Biden >99 in 100 (>99%)
No One < 1 in 100 (0.1%)
Sanders < 1 in 100 (0%)
Dropouts < 1 in 100 (0%)

[SWBTATTReg]

1. Good. Maybe someone might take a hint?

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

3. Probably not.

If he was going to drop out he would have done so by now. His campaign has some subtext that is unexplainable.

[brush]

28. The checks and donations keep coming in as long as he hasn't suspended.

[Progressive dog]

8. We wish

[DownriverDem]

2. If only Sanders cared

about the country. Instead he appears to be listening to those who don't really care about defeating trump.

[OhZone]

4. This

[empedocles]

9. Something 'creepy' about this

[Hortensis]

38. Unfortunately, extremists and other types of zealots

care enormously. They don't care about the things 9 out of 10 people do. But they do care so much about what they want, and believe in its great virtue, that nothing else matters. Including the 9 out of 10 they're doing their best to smash out of their way, even as they prate about representing "the people."

I believe we have excellent reason to believe Sanders would be perfectly willing to repeat 2016, and is still on track. As some posts here always show, Democrats are the main focus of his and his most devoted followers' blame and enmity, their big obstacle, not the Republicans.

They're now desperately looking -- and waiting -- for a bomb they can still use to blow us up. And we know the Republicans are even more desperate, and Russia's kleptocracy extremely concerned about their own survival.

It's not over until it's over.

[William769]

5. I said it once and I'll say it again. Bernie is 3rd in a 2 man race.

[LizBeth]

37. Haha.

[NurseJackie]

6. ZERO is not even ONE-TENTH of ONE PERCENT! Humiliating!

Is there a "LESS THAN ZERO" option available?

[Tetrachloride]

7. Bernie, how many delegates do you think you will win

in Wisconsin ? You know, the place with the apparent Democratic convention.

What about all the rest of the states and Puerto Rice ?

Where are your numbers ?

One more thing, how many people like you in the Senate ? Do you know how to cut a deal ?

[LizBeth]

10. Sanders will go down in history as pathetic

[Thekaspervote]

16. +1000

[Sloumeau]

11. George II, thanks for posting this! :)

This is, of course, *fantastic* news for Joe Biden!

[ret5hd]

12. I think everyone knows what Bernie is ...

staying in for. Why won’t anyone say it?

OK, I will at least ask a question:
Who is the potential nominee if Biden comes down with the virus?

[Mr.Bill]

13. Not Bernie. n/t

[LSFL]

14. According to the chart...

No One has a commanding grip on 2nd place.

[George II]

15. It won't be Sanders. Even if Biden can't accept the nomination for some reason, Sanders will NOT...

....be the candidate with the most delegates. That will remain Biden.

Check Sanders' supporters on Twitter, including some of his PAID staffers - they're almost rooting for Biden to get ill. They keep talking about Biden's health and age, even though Sanders is months away from heart surgery and he's a year older.

Really sad that it's come down to a situation where one campaign is acting like this.

[True Blue American]

25. Sanders is the one who had a heart attack and surgery.

Do they ever think of that?

[Thekaspervote]

17. It's not Bernie

[johnthewoodworker]

18. Lets hope the Biden euphoria is well placed. I remember Hillary euphoria.

[George II]

19. What is this "euphoria" of which you speak?

[johnthewoodworker]

24. It seems rather apparent to me that Biden has been the heavily favored candidate on this site.

Similarly, Hillary was the heavily favored candidate over Sanders in 2016. As candidates dropped out of the campaign, Warren was my candidate, and Sanders was the only other candidate, this site was replete with posts touting Biden and disparaging Sanders. My point is that Biden has arrived as the eventual nominee and many people are quite happy, satisfied, and euphoric that he is the candidate. In 2016 the same was true with Hillary.

My concern is that Biden, like Clinton, while our best candidate, might not be good enough to win in November. I voted for Clinton in 2016 and will vote for Biden in 2020. There will be quite a bit of discussion and introspection if we lose in 2020. So, I am concerned.

[The Magistrate]

27. If You Acnowledge Mr. Biden Is the Best Candidate, Sir

What is the point of craw-fishing and suggesting he will be defeated?





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[johnthewoodworker]

32. I'm not sure what 'craw-fishing' is. I don't think suggestion is the right word to describe my post.

I believe that a better way to describe the situation would be to say that in DU circles Hillary was the one in 2016. After her defeat, in other forums, her candidacy was questioned. Was she, in fact, the best candidate. Her loss would indicate she was not. I don't 'suggest', but fear a similar outcome with Biden. If my fear is 'craw-fishing', then, yes, I'm craw-fishing. This is the defining election of everyone's lifetime. I fear the general election and Biden's acceptance by those that are not inspired by his selection. No offense to you, or, anyone else.

[The Magistrate]

33. A Old Country-ism, Sir, For Backing Off Or Away

Crawfish, little miniature fresh water lobsters, move most quickly backwards by a quick curl of their tails.

It is still puzzling that you acknowledge Mr. Biden the best candidate, yet somehow seem to expect he will fail of victory. Is there someone else you prefer?

No need for concern about offending me. That is well nigh impossible to do, and people have tried.

Be well, Sir, and stay safe.

[johnthewoodworker]

34. I am a cynic and worry too much. Thank you. You stay safe as well.

[The Magistrate]

35. Fair Enough, Sir --- I've Rather a dark Turn Of Mind Myself

"Pessimists get pleasant surprises. Optimists face bitter disappointments."






"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[grantcart]

21. Welcome to DU

[Cha]

20. BS is stationed between no one & Dropouts..

and he's telling his supporters he has "a narrow path"?! But he wouldn't tell Whoopi what it is?

[grantcart]

22. Remember Dumb and Dumber?

"So there IS a chance! ".

[Cha]

23. Oh yes.. who could forget

them.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

26. Good. Maybe now people will stop posting the evil Bernie threads

I keep hearing how hateful he and his followers are, but I only see our side attacking theirs here. Ok so maybe somewhere else they do evil things, but I don’t see it going on here. I see just the opposite. I’m glad Biden isnt doing it too..

Bernie is no more relevant to the election than, say Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson or Michael Bloomberg. Only DUers give him any relevance at all, as far as I can see.

Going after Trump is going to promote Biden, not going after Bernie.

[The Magistrate]

30. Sanders Retains The Capacity To Harm, Ma'am

Even if the harm is not too likely to result in a November defeat, it remains a risk it is not necessary to endure. Since Sanders has no discernible chance to secure the nomination for President of the Democratic Party, his continuing an ostensible campaign for the position invites speculation as to his actual motivation. On the record of his previous performance, the most likely reason for his persistence is the desire to wring platform and rules concessions from our Party, using the threat his most devoted followers might not vote for the Party's nominee in November if he is not thus placated as a tool for blackmail towards this end. He would not have the votes on the convention floor to secure anything, so that any alteration to platform or rules at all would be well in excess of what by ordinary rules of democratic process he would be entitled to.

It is worth noting as well that Sanders probably could not deliver his most devoted followers even if negotiations in good faith were pursued. The instant it was obvious such negotiations were underway, these people would turn on Sanders with cries he was a sell-out, knuckling under to the 'Democratic Establishment' and the big corporations, and in general denouncing him as a false messiah betraying the revolution. Sanders has 'called up that which he cannot put down' and is but driftwood on the wave of currents and events he cannot much influence, and has largely misperceived to begin with.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Pepsidog]

29. I remember it was 99% that Hillary will win.

[The Magistrate]

31. Not If You Were Actually Paying Attention You Do Not, Sir

And it is worth noting how odds and probabilities work when dealing with measures such as the 538 people deal in. That something presents odds of, say, five out of six, does not by any means ensure a single trial will not prove to be one where the one in six chance will come home. It means that if you could run the trial a large number of times, say sixty thousands, that one outcome would occur about fifty thousand times and one about ten thousand times. Elections being one time events, however good a calculation of odds might be, and however one sided the odds are, an anomalous result may still occur on a single trial.

The odds given by the 538 people on Sanders securing a majority of delegates out of the remaining primaries are such that he could not win on a single throw of honest twenty-sided dice 'percentile' dice. Since a great many separate events are involved (the succession of individual state primaries), the calculation of these odds reflects cumulative probabilities, rather than a single trial. Sanders does not have to win a single coin toss, he has to win something on the order of two dozen coin tosses in succession. Any sum you care to place on that possibility I would be happy to cover at any odds you might name. I would consider putting up a hundred to secure a hundred and one an investment rather than a wager.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Tarheel_Dem]

36. K&R