What Happens If the General Election Is Pushed past January 2021?

[Sloumeau]

(Because the purpose of the Democratic Primaries is to choose a candidate for the General Election, I believe that a discussion of how delays in the Democratic Primaries might lead to one or more delays in the General Election is appropriate for this forum)

When individual states started talking about delaying their State Democratic Primaries to choose a nominee for President, and then actually started doing it, I was concerned. I was not so concerned about the delays themselves--I believe that the guy I like, Joe Biden, will win the nomination no matter how much the State Democratic Primaries are delayed. No, what concerned me was how a series of events might unfold:

1. Imagine that for the next few months, because the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to rage throughout our country unabated, that all of our State Democratic Primaries are delayed to at least June, and then at least after July 16, the current end of the Democratic National Convention.

2. Imagine that because of the delays in the Democratic State Primaries, the Democratic National Convention is pushed back a few months to September or October in order to allow the state primaries to finish before the Democratic National Convention.

3. Now imagine that before November, Republicans insist that the November Elections be pushed back in order to be sure that the primaries take place before the General Election. Just how far back can the General Election be pushed back? A new President is supposed to be inaugurated by the end of January. What exactly happens if, through one or more pushbacks in time, the General Election gets pushed back beyond the January 2021 inauguration date? Who exactly is President then? Let's look at several possibilities:

Scenario A: Let us assume that, as of the end of January, if no new election for President is held by then, Donald Trump and Mike Pence cease to be President and Vice President. If this is true, who would then be President? Succession should go next to the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, but Nancy Pelosi is also scheduled to get re-elected in November 2020. If a General Election is not held until after January, Speaker Pelosi's term will have expired, as well as every member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and about a third of the Senate, including Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who would normally succeed after the Speaker of the House Pelosi. Because of this possible scenario, I have a question: Can California hold their election for Nancy Pelosi, and in fact for all California U.S. House of Representatives members in November, even if the Republicans insist on no Presidential Election in November? Can the Democratic-leaning states around the country insist on their Congressional and Senate elections be held in November, even if the Republicans do not want the Presidential Election to happen in November? I ask this because in order for Nancy Pelosi to actually be Speaker of the House, she does need a majority in the House, which means that Democrats need enough states to hold the U.S. House of Representative elections before the end of January 2021 in order for Nancy Pelosi to hold a majority when Trump's and Pence's terms expire.

Also, can Nancy Pelosi maintain her majority if enough Red states do not hold their Congressional Elections? Can enough Blue states hold their Congressional elections in November separate from the Presidential Election to allow Nancy Pelosi to maintain her speakership?

Now, this whole discussion may seem academic to some people, except that some people are saying that we may be dealing with Coronavirus for 18 months, and except for the fact that Trump is barely lifting a finger to help end this pandemic. In addition, the fact that Rasmussen recently took a survey asking if voters actually supported a delay in the November presidential election. Rasmussen has been effectively operating as an arm of the Republican Party for years now, producing slanted surveys that always seem to grade Donald Trump higher than all of the other polls. If Rasmussen is asking questions about delaying the November elections, you can bet that the Republicans are thinking about it.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/disease/25_are_ready_to_postpone_november_election]

25% Are Ready to Postpone November Election

Thursday, March 19, 2020

One-in-four voters are prepared already to postpone the November presidential election – for the first time in U.S. history - if the coronavirus threat continues. Support is much higher for delaying upcoming primaries.

Scenario B: What if the Republicans argue that, because of the Coronavirus epidemic, and "because it is not fair to have Trump leave office without getting a chance for reelection" that Trump should simply remain in office until America gets around to having a Presidential election--even if that election is after January 2021? I could definitely see Republicans doing that. Will Republicans be able to both get a delay in the November elections and also manage to get Trump to remain in office past January even if his term has expired? How will we get Trump out of the White House if Republicans insist on this line of thought?

Scenario C: Here's something else to think about. What if one of the reasons that Trump is sitting on his ass so much and not doing much to help get out massive amounts of COVID-19 tests, and not forcing factories to make ventilators and masks, is that he hopes that a massive COVID-19 pandemic situation, still raging by November 2020, is his ticket to avoid getting defeated at the ballot box in November, and to stay in office past January? What if Trump actually has a huge motivation to *NOT* to fix the coronavirus pandemic because he thinks to let the pandemic rage will let him stay in office? What if the thing that most proves that Trump should be booted out of office, his nonaction on the pandemic, turns out to be the very thing that allows him to stay in office? Wouldn't that be ironic, don't ya think? Wouldn't that be horrific?

[stopbush]

1. Congress sets the date for the general election, and Ds will never agree to move the date

if it gives trump even one more day in office.

[still_one]

2. +++

[NCProgressive]

3. If Trump purposely causes more cases and more deaths

he will be impeached again and this time removed from office.

He is not actively making the epidemic worse. He suffers from Dunning-Kruger syndrome wherein he is an utter imbecile but thinks he knows it all. The clusterf that is happening is because of sheer incompetence not by design.

[Blue_true]

16. ....

[not_the_one]

4. Biden should start putting together his transition team RIGHT NOW.

The time between election day is for (other than the certification of election, which is a technicality) the new administration to be able to hit the ground running, on January 21st.

Biden can have that all taken care of. All he has to do to the former turd appointed occupants of the offices is to say "YOU'RE FIRED, NOW GET THE FUCK OUT".

Personally, I would be a tad harsher.... But that is just me.

[Sloumeau]

5. Obama already had hundreds of people selected for his administration before he was elected in 2008.

I am sure that Biden, being his VP, is well aware of this. He should follow Obama's lead.

[2naSalit]

9. I suspect that he is.

[George II]

6. It will never happen.

[Thekaspervote]

7. The facts: 1. He cannot postpone the election. congress sets the date

2.if for some unknown reason the election does not take place, it effects the sitting president. His term expires on Jan 20, 2021 regardless including the VP.

3.in such a case, the speaker of the house becomes acting President. Welcome president Pelosi!

You can google it if you like

We all know Rasmussen is very right leaning.

This just stirs up confusion and doubt...we already have enough of that

[MineralMan]

8. THE GENERAL ELECTION WILL NOT BE POSTPONED!

Now, can we get back to talking about things that actually can happen, please?

[sarisataka]

10. In order-

Scenario A- the electors will meet and cast ballots for President

Scenario B- the electors will meet and cast ballots for President

Scenario C- the GE is not what selects the President. The electors will meet and cast ballots for President (I would have hoped we have learned this by now)

There is one way to change the date of the end of a President's term- a new Amendment.

[Sloumeau]

12. You wrote:

Scenario A- the electors will meet and cast ballots for President

How are the electors chosen?

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/electors]

Generally, the parties either nominate slates of potential electors at their State party conventions or they chose them by a vote of the party's central committee. ... When the voters in each State cast votes for the Presidential candidate of their choice they are voting to select their State's electors.

No election means no official selection of electoral college electors. This would mean that there would be no chosen official electors to meet and chose a President.

Scenario B- the electors will meet and cast ballots for President

See above about how electors are chosen.

Scenario C- the GE is not what selects the President. The electors will meet and cast ballots for President (I would have hoped we have learned this by now)

See above about how electors are chosen

There is one way to change the date of the end of a President's term- a new Amendment.

I never asked about changing the end of a President's term in the Constitution. The Supreme Court effectively chose the President after the 2000 election, and they did not need to change a thing in the Constitution in order to do it. If the Republicans want to change the election date, and the Democrats do not, it may not end there. If people are sick all over the country, and many cannot make it to the polls, the Democrats may feel extremely pressued to move the election date back.

[sarisataka]

13. That is the general process but

Much like the GE it is not mandatory.

Article II, Section 1, Clause 2

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

The states can (and will if there was no or an inconclusive election) choose the Electors through their respective Legislatures.

[Sloumeau]

14. Check out how the state legislatures were divided in January 2019

https://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-state-politics-governors-2019.html]

Since then, Virginia has flipped from Red to Blue, but I know of no other state that has flipped from Red to Blue since January 2019. Notice that the important states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona are all Red majority in both houses. This means that they would not vote for the Democratic Nominee. Even if every state where Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate voted for the Democratic Nominee, it would not give the Democrats enough Electoral College votes to win the Presidency. We cannot win the Presidency just in the state legislatures, so any attempt to do that would result in 4 more years of Donald Trump.

[sarisataka]

15. If it is up to the legislatures

That is most likely true, but that is a different point than the election being pushed into 2021.

Whether by general election or legislatures choosing electors themselves, there will be a Presidential election. It will be a general election.

[Magoo48]

11. West Coast session sounds good...

[Tarc]

17. It can't be

Silly dramamongering.