538: Our Final Forecast For Arizona, Florida And Illinois Shows A Big Biden Lead

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

In an extraordinary move, Ohio postponed its primary election at the last minute due to concerns about COVID-19, meaning just three states will vote today — Arizona, Florida and Illinois, the latter two of which are among the 10 most delegate-rich contests in the Democratic presidential primary.

But despite the bumps in the road, the Democratic nomination race continues, which means it’s time for FiveThirtyEight to once again freeze its forecast to see what the outlook is in each state. (Remember, we won’t be adding any new polls, endorsements or other data to our forecast until we have results from tonight’s contests.)

Overall, the top-line outcomes in these three states are pretty straightforward: Former Vice President Joe Biden is the heavy favorite, with a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most votes in each state, according to our forecast. On average, Biden is projected to win anywhere from 59 percent to 67 percent of the vote, which doesn’t leave Sen. Bernie Sanders with much of a shot in any of these states.

The main thing to watch tonight will be the margins between Biden and Sanders, as these will directly affect the delegate race. Blowout wins for Biden could also push the race toward its de facto conclusion and may even prompt Sanders to drop out. Although this scenario is unlikely, we shouldn’t completely write off an election surprise, especially considering we don’t know how the COVID-19 virus may affect these elections.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-arizona-florida-and-illinois-shows-a-big-biden-lead/

[still_one]

1. I hope so

[George II]

2. They pretty much say that for each and every remaining primary. They forecast....

...that Biden will get 70% of the remaining delegates, Sanders only 30%.

[Indykatie]

3. I'm So Worried About the Impact that CV-19 will Have on Voting

Tonight we'll get some idea of its impact on turn-out which had been on a record setting pace in many places. I have been voting via mail ballot for at least 10 years and I assume that's pretty typical for older voters or at least I hope it is.

Go Joe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Happy Hoosier]

4. I am too, but...

Keep in mind that Biden voters are the most reliable voters, and most likely to do what they have to do to make sure they vote counts.

[NurseJackie]

5. That really tells the story right there... that's the ceiling.

Poor Bernie. It's over. He won't be nominated. He won't be our party's Socialist leader. He won't be our nation's first Socialist president.

Joe/Kamala or Biden/Harris 2020!!
Jump on the Biden Bandwagon & abandon the revolution!!

[BidenBacker]

6. This 538 side article caught my eye when I looked at your link...

Bloomberg Lost, But He May Still Get What He Wanted

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-lost-but-he-may-still-get-what-he-wanted/

Maybe Joe will make him his Secretary of Treasury...I'd feel a lot better having Billionaire Bloomberg in that position than that clueless Munchkin dude. Him and Krudlow scare the shit outta me if we end up with a full-blown financial crisis.

[DownriverDem]

7. Then

Bernie supporters need to get on board. They are not helping at all.

[msongs]

8. that would require certain parties to ditch their poor me Im a victim status nt