Bitecofer: It would behoove the @TheDemocrats to pressure @JoeBiden heavily on his VP pick

[flamingdem]

Last edited Sun Mar 8, 2020, 09:33 PM - Edit history (2)

Link to tweet

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[Cha]

1. I agree.. and I hope Symone is telling him that.. & I'm thinking Joe knows..

Mahalo, flamingdem!

[PatSeg]

4. Oh yes

I'm sure he knows. The more diverse the ticket and the eventual administration, the better.

[Cha]

5. Joe knows his elections.. he was on two Winning ones with

President Obama!

[PatSeg]

6. There are few people with the experience he has had

and he will bring a lot of people from the Obama campaigns and administration with him. A wealth of knowledge and experience!

[Cha]

8. So much so! TY, Pat!

[Turin_C3PO]

2. I definitely don't think

he should choose Klobuchar. A woman of color would be ideal, or if not that, then Elizabeth Warren.

[lamp_shade]

3. Amy Klobuchar would clean Pence's clock in a debate.

That's just one of many reasons why she's my preference.

[BidenBacker]

11. Pretty sure

a goldfish or a can of baked beans could clean Pence's clock in a debate.

I'm not sure how anybody is even gonna be able to understand what the hell Mikey is saying...he has his head so far up Trump's ass his answers are gonna be mighty muffled.

[OnDoutside]

16. So could Kamala or Stacey, but it sure is not about picking a VP to clean Pence's clock, it's about

giving a counter to Joe on the ticket. Amy is nice, but will not generate the numbers of Black voters that the Democratic Party need to win back the Senate, keep the House and beat Trump. Abrams would electrify the race, and captivate the media.

[Awsi Dooger]

35. Stacey Abrams had 42% of Georgians saying she was too liberal for the state

That's what a Bitecofer type conveniently ignores. It is an astonishing number. That dial never reaches 40%. Yet Abrams was 42% and Andrew Gillum set the all time world record with 46% of Floridians rejecting him as too liberal.

There is a reason I have been emphasizing that 4642 throughout. Stick someone like that on the ticket and all you accomplish is allowing the Republicans to play the socialist fear card, especially given the age of our apparent nominee. That fear card is going to attach to vital swing suburban voters who are currently on our side but incredibly fragile since they have a history of leaning the other way.

We can't afford to lose any of them via ideological vulnerability.

Turnout is meaningless compared to raw preference.

[flamingdem]

45. Valid points

We can't afford to get this wrong.

[radius777]

69. Abrams is a standard center-left Dem

not a left-progressive, despite the polls, where 'too liberal' could simply mean 'too black' or 'too female' in a southern state with a history of racism/sexism.

Also, many voters don't truly understand what ideological labels mean, so I would take such polls with a grain of salt. I've known people who were conservative and called themselves liberal and vice versa.

The Dem party is the part of diversity and has to take chance sometimes to break the image of what leadership looks like; Abrams candidacy was historic and accomplished this task even though she lost - also highlighting the issue of voter suppression and corruption in the state.

Gillum was possibly too ideologically progressive for FL; but he did get almost as many votes as white moderate Nelson. The problems in FL have far more to do with the incompetence of the state Dem party.

[LonePirate]

28. I hope you're not a political analyst. The last thing we need is two white moderates on the ticket.

[mr_lebowski]

7. That's a major link pasting fail, I just have to say ...

DU forum doesn't know what to do with HTML ... it's not a web server

[flamingdem]

46. I know!! How can I copy from Twitter without

this disaster?

[elleng]

9. Thanks. Interesting.

'In terms of flipping the Senate & gaining more House seats, she's not. . .

Ticket needs ideological/racial/gender balance to max turnout.'

Would like to see/hear full discussion with her. Is there a conflict, between best strategies to beat tr AND to keep House majority and gain Senate majority?

[brush]

10. Abrams, Harris, Cortez Masto or Demings.

Gotta be a POC woman after Clyburn and black voters saved Biden, the party and possibly the country.

[Zeus69]

12. Correct

All white or all male ticket is NOT way to go

[lees1975]

13. "Pressure?" Let's accomplish something by consensus

Pressure is why a dolt and idiot like Pence is now VP. That being said...

The Democrats need a consensus pick for VP. To be honest, I would be highly in favor of the nominee picking the other remaining candidate. I think one of the big mistakes Clinton made in 2016 was not choosing Bernie. Of course, with men in their late 70's running, that is likely not practical. So who is there on the Sanders side of the campaign that would help bring about the party unity necessary to win who is a woman of color?

[radius777]

14. Biden said he would pick a WoC

when he started his campaign, and alot of his PoC support is based on that idea, of being loyal not just to Obama but the Obama Coalition - which we need to be energized to win.

Klobuchar has little appeal imo, she didn't even do well in the Midwest (Iowa), would be like another Tim Kaine picked for supposed regional support, but really adds little.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

19. Agree!!! Picking Amy over qualified woman of color not a good look

[spooky3]

26. I disagree. White women have been excluded from the Pres

Or the VP since the country’s inception. To exclude them now based on race or gender is outrageous, especially given that they are are large part of the voting public.

Biden should consider all outstanding women regardless of color, as I’m sure he will, along with other top candidates.

[SharonClark]

36. White women voted for Trump.

Black woman vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. There are plenty of black woman who could help the ticket.

[spooky3]

40. That is a myth. See the Pew Research study that

used better data than exit polls. It was white men, whites without college degrees, and religious voters who gave the election to Trump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5422644/trump-white-women-2016/%3famp=true

Even though far too many white women voted for Trump than he deserved (hell, one vote is too many), WW are a large voting bloc, ~33% of the electorate, larger than African American voters of either sex, about ~13% of the electorate.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

They made a huge difference in 2018 and in the primaries so far, even though pundits have said little about that. In the general election Dems have to be concerned not only about their most consistent voters, but also about voters in the entire electorate.

AND even if white women were not such a large group, it is completely wrong to exclude outstanding white female candidates from consideration as VP candidates. That simply perpetuates the discrimination against them that H. Clinton faced, as did others before and after her.

[former9thward]

59. Even the study says WW voted for Trump 47% - 45%.

And the article trash talks exit polls. The same things that are used to call elections. How can that be if they are trash?

[spooky3]

60. The article explains clearly how the shortcomings

Of exit polls in this specific case were overcome by the authors’ methodology, using better and more representative data. Read it carefully and go to the Pew site for a more complete description of the study.

And the study demonstrated that the majority of white women did NOT vote for Trump. This segment of the electorate is huge compared to AAs and NOT monolithic. So it should NOT be dismissed by Dems.

[former9thward]

61. So when the study says ww voted 47-45 for Trump

they don't even know their own figures? Did you actually read the article? What figures did you read? I did not make them up. And why is this "study" the 10 commandments like it can't be wrong?

[spooky3]

73. My, my. Are you aware that 47% is not close to 52% (as originally reported based on exit polls)

nor is it close even to a majority of 50.1%?

Perhaps you should take your own advice. As I told you earlier, this article and the original report available from Pew explain why this analysis is better than those based on exit polls.

Who said anything about 10 commandments?

That's it for me. Do your own homework.

[spooky3]

29. I don't believe he ever said that. Do you have a link?

There are many articles in which he identified at least x number of women who are qualified; he named some, including some who are not POC.

[radius777]

71. He never said it directly, but strongly implied

from the beginning and throughout that he would choose a WoC, that Abrams was his top choice, and his campaign even considered announcing it from the beginning:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-do-it-stacey-abrams/2019/03/21/c79ff332-4bff-11e9-b79a-961983b7e0cd_story.html {behind paywall, here is the free version: http://archive.is/P6jK8 }
By Karen Tumulty
Columnist
March 21 at 5:47 PM
Don’t do it, Stacey Abrams. It’s a terrible idea.

Now that it appears all but inevitable that Joe Biden will enter the 2020 presidential race, he is reported to be considering announcing at the outset that he has already selected the former Georgia House minority leader to be his running mate.

Axios’s Mike Allen, who broke the story Thursday, quoted a source close to Biden as saying the dramatic pick of an African American woman who is a rising star in the Democratic Party would show that the former vice president "isn’t just another old white guy."
...
If she joins Biden’s ticket, of course, there is always the possibility that she could make history in an even bigger way. But the gimmick is so transparent that it also carries the real risk of devaluing her own political brand.

What’s more, Abrams would spend the next year or more acting as Biden’s human shield, constantly called upon to answer for his past positions on issues that put him at odds with African American and female voters.

Basically, Biden knew being Obama's VP was not enough to rebuild the Obama coalition. He knew he had to answer for past positions on civil rights and women's issues (Anita Hill, etc). Part of his campaign strategy for this was strongly implying throughout that a WoC would be the pick. If he goes back on this, it would not go well with all of the PoC/women voters who came out for him and expect him to be true to the diversity that the modern Dem party stands for.

[spooky3]

72. but look at the language in the article--it does NOT quote Biden as saying he

had chosen Abrams or anyone else.

"Now that it appears all but inevitable that Joe Biden will enter the 2020 presidential race, he is reported to be considering announcing at the outset ..."

This is someone reporting that someone else thought that Biden was considering...

And he never made such an announcement in March of 2019 or any time afterward, AFAIK, nor did HIS words imply that he had made this decision or commitment. It would have been stupid for him or any other candidate to make such an announcement as many voters would view this as arrogant and presumptuous of anyone who did not clearly appear to be at least headed for the nomination.

Abrams is not as qualified as some other candidates. I am glad that he never said he had made this selection.

[radius777]

74. It's an implied promise he used to insulate himself

from the fact that he's not Obama, but wants/needs the Obama coalition to win.

It doesn't have to be Abrams but imo should be a WoC, possibly Kamala Harris or Val Demings or someone else.

A white woman may've worked if there was one who had a strong appeal to PoC, ie like a female version of Bill Clinton - but no such white female candidate exists. Klobuchar, Warren etc barely registered with PoC.

[spooky3]

75. Sorry, I don't agree. nt

[OnDoutside]

15. 100% correct and true. This is a Referendum on Trump and needs a high turnout to win everything.

The "safe choice" is Amy.

The "middle choice" is Kamala.

The "bold choice" is Stacey Abrams

I say be BOLD !

[comradebillyboy]

17. I'll go with safe thank you very much.

[OnDoutside]

20. Safe and boring it is then !

[comradebillyboy]

21. The news has been way too exciting for the past three and

a half years. First thing to do is to save the patient.

[OnDoutside]

22. From that angle, i understand. My thought was that the GOP and

Russians worked to depress African American turnout, and my fear is that they'll do the same this time. That's why I think a Harris or Abrams would be a better balance to a Biden ticket.

[comradebillyboy]

24. I'd be quite happy with Harris but I don't think Abrams has

the political stature for a presidential campaign.

[Dream Girl]

31. Why would use say that? Because she dark skinned?

[comradebillyboy]

32. Because the step from the Georgia state legislature to

the white house is too big. Otherwise your comment is really offensive and obnoxious.

[Dream Girl]

37. Kind of like the mayor of a small college town?

[dsc]

42. It isn't a college town

any more than Raleigh NC (home of NC State among others) or Columbus Ohio (home of Ohio State) or Madison WI (home of University of WI) are. Yes, Notre Dame is right next door to South Bend but it has a small student body which actually isn't within the city limits if they live on campus. Even if all of them were, and they aren't, it would be about 8k people out of a city of over 100k. Columbus is about 500k with the OSU having about 60k for comparison.

[spooky3]

44. The columbus OH metro area is over two million.

It is a state capital, with a lot of other industries.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus,_Ohio

There is no legitimate comparison with South Bend.

[dsc]

47. South Bend metro is just about 320k

so my numbers still hold true. In terms of voting power, which is the only relevant measure, they are about the same. 8k out of 320k vs 60k out of 2.4 million.

[spooky3]

53. There are more than 8600 undergrads alone at Notre Dame. You would need to add in

graduate students (to get to a total of around 12600). And I think you may have a different point in mind than did the posters to whom you were responding.

Being a mayor of a small city of ~110000 (Buttigieg would not have responsibility for the entire metro area AFAIK) vs. nearly 900000 for Columbus in the city proper, may not provide the incumbent with enough complex experience to be considered highly qualified compared to other candidates. If he were the mayor of Columbus, that would be far more demanding and complex; there are many more issues that will arise in a city/metro area that is 8 to 10 times the size of South Bend or its metro area. But many people may not consider being the mayor of Columbus enough experience, either.

[GulfCoast66]

56. Geez. That is unnecessary and totally unfair. He said he was fine with Harris.

Does she not qualify as African American or something? And I agree with him. I’ve said from before Biden got into the race that BidenHarris is our most formidable ticket.

And Georgia Statehouse to VP is too big a jump in my opinion although I think Abrams has unlimited potential. Same with the representative from the district next to mine and Val Demmings. Love her to death but needs more on her resume than one term as a representative. And same with Mayor Pete. Liked the guy. But Mayor!

I certainly hope you think that skin color drives my decision making!

[OnDoutside]

57. If this were an ordinary election, I would agree. That said, of the

three of them, I think Kamala is the hot favourite, though I believe Abrams is a cut above, she is so driven and would energise the race. That she was only denied the Governorship by theft, while emerging with an enhanced reputation despite Republican attempted smears, is a positive.

[SharonClark]

38. How is Amy a safe choice?

I like Amy but question what she would bring to the ticket.

[OnDoutside]

58. I agree with you.

I meant safe as in not a courageous pick. For me there are 3 criteria for the VP pick

1 - that it has to be a woman

2 - that it has to be a POC

3 - that it has to somewhat appeal to progressives

Picking Amy would satisfy the first criteria only, but appeals to the Mid West. Then it comes down to Kamala and Stacey, and Kamala would fit all 3 criteria but you'd have a West coaster with an East Coaster, and i wonder if that is a good look on a ticket ? Stacey would also fit all three criteria but appeal to the South.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

18. Fortunately at end of day it is HIS choice

You don’t know what they turn up in vetting work they do. There are many seemingly obvious candidates who are passed over and years later it comes out that they had a few things which oppo research teams would also pick up and exploit.

[brooklynite]

23. Whomever might she be thinking of?

[Sunlei]

25. The dreamer in me has the same advice for Joe, I gave Hillary, Pick Sanders because he

has about 30% of the Democratic primary voters hearts.


They've worked together in our government for decades.









voted for Sanders in the Texas super Tuesday primary and will vote d whoever wins the primary

[LakeArenal]

54. One person's dream is another person's nightmare.

[Sunlei]

64. I look towards how to bring together the entire group of d party voters.

Sanders was asked that question by press recently. He didn't say no, but he did say(not exact quote) "it's hard enough for voters to accept one candidate in their 70s" I'd like the press to ask Joe Biden the same question.


Sanders/ Clinton campaigns worked together end of last primary and almost teamed up. I wanted that dream team so, so much the last primary. If Clinton picked Sanders as her VP last general election- she would be the President today.

[LakeArenal]

65. He very reluctantly helped Hillary

But we are not talking about 2016

[Sunlei]

67. You mean helped and helps the D party. I would never support/supported Sanders 'spoiler'

He's already spoke at length over decades why he's an independent Senator and why he runs for president in the Democratic party. And why people (including to his supporters at rallies/interviews) should register as Ds and vote/support a Democratic party President.

I'll always speak about 2016 because I'll always firmly believe- Hillary would have won with Sanders as VP. Only a couple thousand GE votes made the difference in so many state districts.


Americas income inequality 'problem' remains the top of the list issue for many American voters. Clinton spoke of this issue many times, Biden not so much, hopefully enough to get through to those voters if he wins the primary. Or maybe picks a VP who speaks well and has policy ideas to 'fix' the income inequality 'problems'. Back to normal speak isn't enough, people ask for progress, meaningful change.

[LakeArenal]

68. Yes. He's proud to be an Independent

Exactly. The point is well made.

So let him stay that way.

[mchill]

27. I think he will pick Stacey Abrams 🦅🦅🦅🦅🐥🐥🐤🐤

[spooky3]

30. I think Bitecofer is interesting, but very little of her

Work has been subjected to peer review, and the number of scholarly citations is extremely low. It’s great that her model did a good job of predicting 2018 results, but as a fellow female academic, I am skeptical at this stage. I think she gets out over her skis when interviewed, which is her right, but the rest of us need to be very careful, IMHO, until she’s got more of a track record and more consensus in her field.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. I can't believe anyone pays attention to Rachel Bitecofer

I'll offer a review: Anyone who focuses on turnout as opposed to preference is a world class idiot

It is more than hilarious that a Sanders campaign that tried to pretend late swing voters did not exist was instead buried by a wave of late swing voters.

In the 28 years I have wagered on politics Rachel Bitecofer stands alone as a simpleton who somehow earned far more credit than she ever deserved.

As soon as I saw Nate Silver posting as Poblano on progressive sites in spring 2008 I knew within a week or so that his math and grasp of applicable variables was far beyond mine, even though mine is plenty good enough and wipes out the betting lines. Rachel Bitecofer is exactly the opposite. Nothing is substantive, Nothing has any historical relevance. Nothing has any grasp of situational variance from cycle to cycle.

Bitecofer picked the out party to win big in a midterm with the president at 40% approval rating. Wow, that is so incredible. Next thing you know she'll be picking Katie Ledecky in the 800 and 1500 freestyle.

Now Bitecofer is stupidly exaggerating the impact of a vice president. I'm not surprised but at least it allows another reason to laugh at her.

[spooky3]

41. :-) to be fair, her model was more precise than to predict

Only that the out party would pick up seats.

[FM123]

33. I love Congresswoman Val Demings from Florida

We are so proud of her down here!

[brooklynite]

39. I seem to have riled her a bit.....

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[dsc]

43. I think it virtually has to be a woman of color at this point

He might be able to get away with a man of color but I doubt it. There aren't a ton of choices for him in this regard but there are some. I think his best choice is Harris, Democratic governor so replacement will be a Democrat, long career but still fairly young, and focused on issues Biden hasn't. If he goes male, then he could do Booker, again Democratic governor so Democratic replacement, lots of domestic issues. He is worse on education than Harris by a mile.

[squirecam]

50. Harris doesn't bring CA. We already have it.

Biden needs security in the Midwest and Amy appeals to suburban moderate women.

If we run the 2018 playbook, we win.

[Dem4Life1102]

63. What states in the Midwest can Klobuchar flip?

And Biden already appeals to suburban moderate women.

[mr_lebowski]

48. Bottom right corner of the tweet, there's a little dish looking thing with an arrow pointing upward

Click that, then choose 'Copy Link to Tweet'.

Paste in into DU post, and Bob's yer Uncle!

[flamingdem]

49. Thanks!

Got to try that

[evertonfc]

51. Val Demmings for VP

[MFM008]

52. Harris

Abrams
Demmings
Escobar
Elizabeth
Amy.

[emmaverybo]

55. So far Biden's calculations have been pretty sound. He has played the long game. He will need

a VP who suits him as well as fulfills some more political needs. He is one who deliberates, seeks counsel, and understands what is at stake. This is our moment, but also Joe’s.

[Dem4Life1102]

62. She is correct

I don't see any advantage to Klobuchar on an ideological or geographic basis and only a slight one on a demographic basis. There are choices that may be able to put a purple state like Florida in play.

[Zeus69]

66. I believe

It will NOT be an all white or all male ticket.

[kentuck]

70. The black vote got Biden to where he is, primarily black women's vote...

Why would he throw them under the bus?

Are people even thinking?

[grantcart]

76. Lol yes we need a socialist on the ticket to help win the Senate seats in Montana

and Arizona.

Sure is easy to see who lives inside the deep blue states and who fights to expand the map

[beachbumbob]

77. Kamala Harris is all we need and who I expect Joe will pick

[Indykatie]

78. Rachel Needs to Stick to Data Analysis and STFU on Political Strategy