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El Nino weather pattern likely to swing back to La Nina this year: UN weather agency
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/el-nino-weather-pattern-likely-swing-back-la-nina-this-year-un-weather-agency-2024-06-03/El Nino weather pattern likely to swing back to La Nina this year: UN weather agency
By Reuters
June 3, 2024 4:59 AM EDT Updated an hour ago
GENEVA, June 3 (Reuters) - The El Nino weather pattern that can cause extreme events such as wildfires and tropical cyclones is forecast to swing back into generally cooler La Nina conditions later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, while La Nina is characterised by cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is linked to floods and drought.
WMO said there was a 60% chance that La Nina conditions would take hold between July to September, and a 70% chance of them occurring between August and November.
"The end of El Nino does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
[...]
By Reuters
June 3, 2024 4:59 AM EDT Updated an hour ago
GENEVA, June 3 (Reuters) - The El Nino weather pattern that can cause extreme events such as wildfires and tropical cyclones is forecast to swing back into generally cooler La Nina conditions later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, while La Nina is characterised by cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is linked to floods and drought.
WMO said there was a 60% chance that La Nina conditions would take hold between July to September, and a 70% chance of them occurring between August and November.
"The end of El Nino does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
[...]
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World Meteorological Organization
https://wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-forecast-swing-la-nina-later-year
El Niño is forecast to swing to La Niña later this year
NEWS
03 June 2024
[...]
Latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts give equal chances (50%) of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August 2024. The chance of La Niña conditions increases to 60% during July-September and 70% during August-November. The chance of El Niño redeveloping is negligible during this time.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. The effects of each La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and the interaction with other modes of climate variability. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña produces the opposite climate impacts to El Niño.
However, naturally occurring climate events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now take place in the context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
“Every month since June 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. The end of El Niño does not mean a pause, in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months," says WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
[...]
NEWS
03 June 2024
[...]
Latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts give equal chances (50%) of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August 2024. The chance of La Niña conditions increases to 60% during July-September and 70% during August-November. The chance of El Niño redeveloping is negligible during this time.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. The effects of each La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and the interaction with other modes of climate variability. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña produces the opposite climate impacts to El Niño.
However, naturally occurring climate events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now take place in the context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
“Every month since June 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. The end of El Niño does not mean a pause, in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months," says WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
[...]