538's 2021 NFL Predictions

[underpants]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/

[Auggie]

1. Fun conversation fodder

From the link:

Elo does have its limitations. Aside from changes at quarterback, it doesn’t know about trades or injuries that happen midseason, so it can’t adjust its ratings in real time for the absence of an important non-QB player. Over time, it will theoretically detect such a change when a team’s performance drops because of the injury, but Elo is always playing catch-up in that department. Normally, any time you see a major disparity between Elo’s predicted spread and the Vegas line for a game, it will be because Elo has no means of adjusting for key changes to a roster and the bookmakers do. (But this should be much less frequent after the addition of our QB adjustments, since oddsmakers don’t tend to shift lines much — or at all — in response to changes at non-QB positions.)

Also missing (IMO): Team chemistry!

Fun conversation fodder. Thanks for sharing.