Study Examines Cost Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks - NREL.gov

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Total cost of driving (TCD) parity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings potential by MHDV class and market segment. (EV labels refer to EV range in miles. Mileage labels indicate the primary traveling distance of a given market segment.) Figure by Fred Zietz, NREL

Study Examines Cost Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks

Tech Progress, Supportive Policies, and Infrastructure Investments Drive Down Costs and Spur Technology Adoption

April 3, 2024 | By Julia Thomas | NREL.gov

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) account for just 5% of vehicles on the road in the United States, yet they are responsible for 21% of transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing MHDV emissions is vital to mitigating the effects of climate change and improving air quality. Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs)—such as battery electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)—offer a solution.

While projecting future technology adoption is complex and many factors influence consumer decisions, economics play a key role in choosing technologies for commercial vehicle applications. A recent study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) explored how the total cost of driving for zero-emission and diesel MHDVs could evolve over time under different scenarios, from the present day to 2050.

"With continued improvements in vehicles and fuels, ZEVs are rapidly becoming commercially viable, potentially reaching total cost of driving parity or better compared to diesel vehicles by 2035 in all market segments," said NREL's Catherine Ledna, a decision support analyst who led the study.

A full transition to ZEV sales by 2035 would result in a 65% reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to 2019. Incentives such as the zero-emission MHDV purchase tax credits made possible via the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) further accelerate total cost of driving competitiveness and spur emissions reductions up to 70%...more
https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2024/study-examines-cost-competitiveness-of-zero-emission-trucks.html

Perhaps this is why companies like Daimler and Volvo are continuing on with hydrogen trucks. Fact: It will take more than just Li-Ion batteries to green up transportation.