October jobs report: Signs of a labor market cooldown, slowing wage growth in focus

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Yahoo Finance

October jobs report: Signs of a labor market cooldown, slowing wage growth in focus

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Thu, November 2, 2023 at 3:56 PM EDT • 3 min read

The October jobs report is set for release Friday morning and is expected to show that job growth in the US slowed after a robust September report.

The monthly labor report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls in September rose by 180,000 while the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.8%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In September, the US economy added 336,000 jobs while unemployment stayed unchanged at 3.8%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +180,000 vs. +336,000 previously

• Unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.8% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.0% vs. +4.2% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 vs. 34.4 previously

"We expect the October employment report to show a large deceleration in job growth, although the moderation will be overstated by the impact of striking autoworkers," said Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten. "Excluding those workers, job growth will still be relatively robust, although narrowly based."

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ADP's monthly private payroll data released Wednesday showed annual wage growth for workers changing jobs fell to 8.4% in October, the slowest pace of growth since July 2021. Meanwhile, workers who kept the same job saw wages rise 5.7% last month, the slowest since September 2021.

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