Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort

[CajunBlazer]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by William769 (a host of the Hillary Clinton group).

A number of Democrats have grown complacent about the Presidential Race. Given that Hillary Clinton has maintained a lead in all of the swing states since the Democratic convention and with Donald Trump continually undercutting his own candidacy, they are confident of victory. I recently read that that even Clinton campaign insiders are switching their sights to a landslide instead of a mere victory.

I hope they are right, but in politics overconfidence often leads to bad results and I am seeing signs that Hillary’s big leads in pivotal states have been steadily shrinking since the Democratic Convention as has the probability that she will win the election. Don’t get me wrong, I am not writing this to throw cold water on the Clinton crowd. I am a big Hillary supporter, but I don’t like the way the polls are trending.

Nate Silver, probably the best election statistician in the nation. uses recent state polls which he adjusts for built in bias and timeliness, to predict the current probabilities of winning Presidency of each of the candidates on an ongoing basis. The results are posted on his FiveThirtyEight website. Who will win the presidency?

As you can see from the two screenshots below which were taken from the Silver’s website, according his calculations the probability that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency as dropped from its high 89.2% on August 14th (right after the convention) to 71.5%. Donald Trump’s chances of winning have increased accordingly. (Since I took those screen shots, but before publication of this article, Hillary’s chances of winning have dropped again, to 69.1% – that’s how quickly new polls can affect Silver’s projections.)

(Snip)

Link to the rest of the article:

Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort

[William769]

1. Hogwash!

Come election day, when it is actually time to vote, you will see a landslide.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[CajunBlazer]

2. So you haven't read the entire article

But if you you are more comfortable keeping yourself in the dark, who am I to advise you differently.

[William769]

3. No, I did not. What's written here was more than enough for me.

Actually I am in the light and refuse to be drawn into the dark.

To think otherwise is unacceptable & unimaginable because what is at stake.

Just a friendly reminder that the Hillary Group is about positivity Concerning Hillary & her campaign. There are umpteen million other places to read what's wrong with this election or how she may lose the election.

Have a nice day.

[CajunBlazer]

4. Just a friendly reminder that the Hillary Group is about all things Hillary

And making sure she succeeds in this election is far from the the least important aspect of that scope. The article is but a cautionary tale as to why her biggest fans, and I am one of them, should get off of their butts and GOTV.

[Little Star]

6. This group is not about all things Hillary. It's about...

discussing the life, career, and accomplishments of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. There are plenty of other forums for cautionary tales here on DU.

[CajunBlazer]

7. I am quite familiar with the Hillary Group....

....since I was one of its biggest contributors when every one considered it a safe haven where we could discussed the primary without fear of being alerted on, though unfortunately that was often not the case. If the Hillary Clinton group could spend most of its time discussing the election during the primaries, it can certainly tolerate talk about the potential for Hillary's biggest accomplishment by far.

[William769]

8. Ok that's enough. I am locking this thread.

You have heard from two Hosts now (one being the main Host) on what the SOP is and this OP does not conform.

[Cary]

5. Is this necessary?

???