Who is going to win by a wider margin? Ryan-OH or Barnes-WI?

[nkpolitics1212]

Barnes represents a Democratic friendly state.
Ryan has crossover appeal.

Who is more unpopular/controversial?

Johnson-WI or Vance-OH

Democrats will hold onto
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)GA(Warnock-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
Democrats will pick up
51)PA(Fetterman-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)

[moniss]

1. Wisconsin is still

very racist/GQP once you get outside of Milwaukee and Madison. I would love to see Johnson get kicked to the curb but it's not a sure thing. Combined with the voter suppression it's still a tough slog. I'm hoping that people are able to see through the lies of Johnson when he says he is for exceptions for rape/incest/life of mother.

[LakeArenal]

3. Wisconsin leans Democratic in state wide and national elections.

Where gerrymandering isn’t as effective.

I worked on Evers campaign. I think Barnes will win, too.

DNC have made many mistakes in WI over the years that have hurt the State party.

[moniss]

7. As I said

this is not a sure thing no matter how detestable Johnson is. Remember his last election. I agree with you about the Dems making many mistakes in WI over the years. An example would be that in the last 10 years and more I have seen little if any outreach by the party in the southeast corner of the state. I think it's unusual for a party not to contact a voter who has reliably voted year after year. I don't see door to door activity either. Mailers, e-mail begging and media ads. I don't care what all the high paid consultants you have got to do door to door along with other things. I've seen it easily sway local electors and the number one comment is "I'm voting for "Candidate X" because he actually cared enough to come and see me and I could ask him my questions". The large gatherings don't compare to establishing that personal contact. That voter will also influence friends/relatives/co-workers etc. I've seen with my own eyes when a total political novice would run against an entrenched alderman, representative etc. and almost exclusively (mostly out of financial reasons) do door to door every single evening and on Saturdays. They would have a minimum of campaign literature (again because of cost) and no name recognition. Their opponent would rely on his "trusted base", yard signs etc. thinking that he/she had been re-elected 4 times in a row and didn't need to wear out some shoe leather. Then comes the shocker on election night.

[Botany]

2. OH has a big Ukrainian population and Vance's ties to Trump will not go over well with them.

And Vance living in California and being a hedge fund managers isn't going to help him either.

Although, much of Ohio has become North Alabama in the past 20 + years.

[zeusdogmom]

4. I don't care how big the margin is

I just want the Dems to win. However a big winning margin for them would be really great.

[TheRealNorth]

5. It's a good question...

I think Ryan is a stronger candidate, but he is running in a more Republican-leaning state.

If Ryan was running in WI, he would probably win by close to 10 pts. But I think both elections are going to be very close.

[nkpolitics1212]

6. WI(Barnes-D) and OH(Ryan-D) are the Democrats 52/53 seat!

I prefer Barnes over Sinema.
I prefer Fetterman over Manchin.
Ryan is a bonus seat.

Barnes and Fetterman will vote for the Democratic Agenda 85 percent of the time.
Ryan will vote for the Democratic Agenda 75 percent of the time.
Sinema votes for the Democratic Agenda 65 percent of the time.
Manchin votes for the Democratic Agenda 55 percent of the time.