Emerson Poll: Walker trails Dem opponent Evers by 5pt in Wisconsin--but Libertarian Anderson

[riversedge]

Poll: Walker trails Dem opponent Evers by 5 points in Wisconsin
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/414520-poll-walker-trails-dem-opponent-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-governor

could be a problem. As the article says---he was NOT polled in this Emerson poll. So do not count your chicks yet.






By Owen Daugherty - 11/02/18 11:18 AM EDT


Poll: Walker trails Dem opponent Evers by 5 points in Wisconsin
© Getty Images

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails his Democratic challenger Tony Evers by 5 points just days before the midterm election, according to a new poll.

The survey from Emerson College released Friday shows Evers with 51 percent support among likely voters, compared to Walker’s 46 percent. Only 1 percent of respondents were undecided....................................................................................................................


Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson could prove to be the wild card in the race. Anderson received 3 percent of likely voters support in a Marquette University poll earlier this month. Anderson was not polled in the most recent survey from Emerson.

The poll surveyed 604 likely voters mostly by phone from Oct. 29-31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up.”

Evers is the superintendent of Wisconsin state schools; Walker is seeking a third term as governor.

About 45 percent of likely voters surveyed have favorable views of Walker, who's been endorsed by President Trump, while 50 percent have an unfavorable view of him....................................................

Emerson leans Dem per 538:


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/


.............The best of these pollsters over this period has been Monmouth University, which has an Advanced Plus-Minus score of -1.5. That’s not a huge surprise — Monmouth was already one of our highest-rated pollsters. After that, the list is somewhat eclectic, including traditional, live-caller pollsters such as Siena College and Marist College, as well as automated pollsters such as Emerson College and Landmark Communications. Polling institutes run by colleges and universities are somewhat overrepresented among the high performers on the list and have generally become a crucial source of polling as other high-quality pollsters have fallen by the wayside..................................



How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections

Advanced Plus-Minus scores for pollsters’ surveys conducted for elections on Nov. 8, 2016, and later
pollster Methodology No. of Polls Avg. Error Advanced Plus-Minus Bias
Monmouth University Live 24 4.8 -1.5 D+3.9
Emerson College IVR 51 4.1 -1.0 D+1.2



..........................................

[Downtown Hound]

1. Libertarians are the GOP's Green Party

they siphon way more votes from the Republicans than they do Democrats.

[NCjack]

2. I think you are correct. Another way to view it: Libertarians don't

like DEMs or REPs. It is not reasonable to think that if the Libertarian withdrew that DEMs would see a net increase over REPs.

[AllyCat]

3. Wouldn't the libertarian pull votes from Walker

More than Evers?