Beto O'Rourke Is Making His Last Stand in Texas.

[elleng]

The former congressman and Democratic sensation is still trying to prove he can win statewide in his home state.

AUSTIN, Texas — In a cavernous, modern sanctuary at Greater Mt. Zion Church, the Rev. Gaylon Clark introduced Beto O’Rourke to his congregation one recent Sunday as “the next governor of the state of Texas.” Then he raised his hand and, over the strains of a keyboard, prayed for “victory in the name of Jesus.”

In the sanctuary, the churchgoers said, “Amen.” In the lobby, they lined up for pictures with the one-time Democratic sensation now lagging in the polls.

“With God and faith and him being here today,” one of the congregants told me, “you should see a change in his numbers by next week.” Another suspected polls were missing voters who are tired of the state’s Republican governor, Greg Abbott, but reluctant to acknowledge voting for a Democrat — the kind of “shy” voter theory once applied by some observers to Donald Trump. A woman said she could see people “waking up” in Texas, while her 7-year-old daughter, who O’Rourke bent low to speak with, told me O’Rourke addressed not only her concerns about school, but also the protection of ocelots.

It was the kind of gusher of hopefulness that O’Rourke — at his boisterous rallies, in his prolific, small-dollar fundraising, trucking across Texas — has met with ever since he burst into the national consciousness in his U.S. Senate run in 2018 and continued to inspire among Democrats in the early stages of his presidential campaign two years later.'>>>

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/05/beto-orourke-texas-governor-election-00060060?

[Hekate]

1. Fingers crossed for Beto

[Roy Rolling]

2. C'mon, Texas

In Louisiana we’re last in everything except New Orleans and having a democratic governor, John Bel Edwards.

You have a cool city like Austin and others, now elect a a democratic governor Beto O’Rourke.

If not now, when?

[Genki Hikari]

8. Texas isn't like Louisiana

Louisiana is much smaller, for one thing, in both size and population. New Orleans is also a larger percentage of the populace than any city (or combo of cities) in the rest of the state. I mean, come on--Natchitoches and St Martinsville aren't major competition for New Orleans. Even combined with Baton Rouge and Shreveport, they're all still small potatoes compared to NOLA.

Most of the people live in the cities in Texas, but the numbers of liberals in them can't quite match the numbers of rwnjs living in the few blue areas + the yokels who are an overwhelming majority in the less-populated counties.

There are basically 15-20 counties that consistently go blue in Texas: Harris, Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Travis, Hidalgo, Starr, Cameron, Webb, some of the smaller counties along the border, and now, increasingly, Williamson (suburban Austin) and Ft Bend (suburban Houston).

Out of 254. Do you realize how many people live in those other 234 counties?

For every Dallas or even the not-as-liberal-as-it-brags Austin, there are 10 cities like Amarillo, San Angelo, Sherman, Wichita Falls and Tyler--middling cities that together add up to Dallas or Austin. Worse, those middling cities are far redder than Dallas or Austin is blue. The redness only deepens for the vast majority of the 234 counties that are lucky to have a town pushing 15K in them.

That's why Texas is red. It's death by a thousand paper cuts. Or, more precisely, 234.

Louisiana simply doesn't have huge numbers of mid-size cities and towns and rural areas competing with New Orleans, population-wise. Your state is like many others that have a gigantic urban population concentrated in one area--maybe two--that dwarfs the rest of your state. In VA's case, it's the DC burbs. In Alabama, it's Birmingham. In CA, it's the LA and SF metro areas. In NY, it's metro NYC. And so on.

Texas doesn't have that kind of concentrated population in one area, so it's useless to expect it to perform like other states do. It won't, because it's not structured like other states. And I doubt it can be.

That's why Beto's 254 campaign is the only hope he has of winning in his state. He can't concentrate only on one massive population region and be done with it. He has to hit the road and reach out to the entire state.

By going to each of those counties, he's making contact with voters who usually never--and I mean NEVER--see a campaigning politician's face. Second cousin of mine lives in one of those places. He was so excited to have any politician come to his town that he voted D for the first time in his life--for Beto in 2018. Voters in those outposts are taken for granted. But Beto showing them a little love, letting them see that he doesn't have horns growing out of his head unlike what Fox or talk radio says, taking the opportunity to talk WITH them--that might turn just enough voters, county by county, to eke out a statewide win when combined with the blue urban centers.

[BaronChocula]

3. The fight is never over

gopper strategy is to tie up Democratic officeholders with mishugas. Let's plan to inundate abbott with his own gopper medicine should he get another term. Lawsuits, injunctions, recalls, etc. Let us do it in every precinct From Texas to the Dakotas to Maine. What say you, those of us who are not meek? (meek spoilers need not reply)

[Mike Nelson]

4. C'mon, Texas!

... Get out the V*O*T*E for Beto!

[Funtatlaguy]

5. Still looks like he's going to fall short again. Hope polls are wrong.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/tx/texas-governor-abbott-vs-orourke-7376.html

[Genki Hikari]

9. I fear that his gun remarks early on doomed him.

At least in Texas.

That's a case of Beto letting his passion get ahead of his political sense. He's usually smarter than that, but I guess he forgot how to shift gears from the national stage to Texas.

[2naSalit]

6. He's been...

"Working the crowd" all over the state for well over five years now, I think he and Fetterman have that part of electioneering down, as it should be.

They really do "get" the representative part. I hope they both win!

[Gore1FL]

7. The beauty of Beto is that he is changing the narrative.

Even if he doesn't win the election, he is upending Republican talking points; That is a win in-and-of itself.

[Paladin]

10. Filled out my mail-in ballot today.

Such a terrific feeling, voting for Beto (and against street trash like Abbott).

[yellowdogintexas]

11. the Fort Worth Newspaper endorsed Beto today

That is a BFD, for sure.

Beto is up by 4 in Tarrant County. Tarrant is the last red metropolitan area in Texas, and it has been purple the last 3 elections; city of Fort Worth has been blue.


Voter registration has been through the roof all year, with new young voters and......
Women who have never bothered are registering and are ready to vote this Roevember. These are people who are not being surveyed because they are so new on the voting registry and have never voted before. They are the X factor for certain.

This college tour he just finished has the college kids fired up. The crowds are phenomenal on these campuses. The volunteer coordinators at these events are training more volunteers to go out and blockwalk to get out the vote. Up until the 11th, his team was also registering voters on those campuses.

It is said that Texas is not a red state, it is a non voting state. Rs tend to vote, Ds not always. Average across the board turnout is 45%. Turnout is everything.