What are the chanced of Stacey Abrams?

[question everything]

Yes, it is great that an African American woman is a gubernatorial candidate but does she have real chances?

Didn't the daughter of former senator Sam Nunn run for governor and lost?

And the RWers are already after Abrams. Doe she really owe more than $50K in back taxes?

And is she not going to appeal to independents and to "frustrated Republicans," only to loyal Democrats?

I hope you are not going to alert for "repeating RW propaganda." If these claims are true, I hope that her campaign is ready to face them head on.

[Hoyt]

1. Democrats had a small chance of winning gubernatorial race to start with.

I like Abrams as a candidate. She’s for healthcare and tough gun laws, and she’s savy. But there are a lot of ignorant white wingers in Georgia. The two GOPer candidates in runoff are trying to out racist/bigot each other trying to attract them.

I think Abrams will wake some folks up, but I’m doubtful it will be enough. But with big voter turnout there is a chance. So I hope I’m wrong.

[alfie]

2. It will be a hard fight for her

Michelle Nunn ran against Perdue for US Senator. Georgia is gradually trending purple, but it may not make it this election. I will do my part to help Abrams, but it is going to take massive GOTV and new registrations. But, she's on it...good luck!

[Different Drummer]

3. I plan to vote for her but as Alfie said...

it's going to take massive GOTV and new registrations. Hopefully, the racist white wingers will not be inspired to vote in large numbers.

[question everything]

4. Does GA have all these blocks in place to make it harder for AAs to vote?

Back in 2016, when I was reading here about all the blocks in many states, when an ID was not the "right one" but it was too late to get another one, I was hoping to repeat the Freedom Summer drive to vote from 1964.

To send volunteers to make sure that voters have the IDs that would be required to vote.

[Different Drummer]

5. Good question. I'm not sure. n/t

[hueymahl]

6. It will be an interesting race to watch

I don't love her as a candidate. I love her politics and like her as a person, but I just don't see her getting much traction outside of the hard core dems. Her strategy is to get big turnout from the base and invigorate the silent progressives out there. I hope she is right, but as purple as Georgia is getting, I don't see it working out for her.

That said, it is probably a good long-term strategy to grow the base, setting the stage for the next Democratic candidate for Governor.

P.s. The tax claims are true. She admits "delaying" payments due to helping her parents and is on a payment plan. I know I am going to be sick of the attack adds that are coming.

[MGKrebs]

7. Here are some numbers:

There was only a total vote difference between D and R of 52,000 in this primary. In 2014 Jason Carter gained 75,000 more votes than all R candidates combined did between the primary and the general. For him it wasn’t enough because he started out 292,000 down. Stacey is only down 52,000 going into the general.

R turnout for this primary was almost the same as 2014 (607,000 vs 596,000 in 2014), but D’s added 251,000 more voters this time around (555,000 this time vs 304,000 in 2014). That makes for a very close race.

So it could be close. As always, turnout is the key, and Stacey appears to be very good at that.

Stacey has already responded to the attack regarding her finances (I am certain this attack was expected, so they were ready, the sign of a well run campaign). From a press release:

Despite being hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt after settling a racial discrimination lawsuit, the Georgia GOP has launched an absurd and hollow attack on Stacey Abrams’ personal finances.

Since the beginning of her campaign, Abrams has been transparent about how her role as the sole provider for her parents, grandmother, and niece has impacted her personal finances and her plans to help Georgians achieve economic security, and has appropriately disclosed information regarding her finances via her personal financial disclosures.

“Stacey Abrams has always been open and honest about the financial challenges she has faced while taking care of her family — challenges that many Georgians share. The GOP’s hypocrisy on this issue would be laughable if it didn’t demonstrate how out of touch they are with the struggles of everyday families,” said Abrams campaign spokesperson Priyanka Mantha. “Just as Abrams released personal financial disclosures earlier this year, she will release tax returns once there is a GOP nominee.”