A Powerful El Nino Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.

[ancianita]

Right now, the world is entering a new El Niño phase. Researchers are warning it could be one of the strongest on record and are invoking this history as an admonition that natural forces, when they reach their highest magnitude, can lead to profound volatility and hardship.

In general, El Niño makes for wetter conditions in some parts of the Americas while suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season. The phenomenon raises the risk of dryness in South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
Of course, the current El Niño is in the early stages of formation and might not live up to the hype. But if the forecasts prove accurate, it would be a whopper and its consequences would play out across a world that has grown far more resilient but also has new vulnerabilities...

experts say an El Niño would add pressure to an already precarious global system. Fertilizer shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz are straining farmers. Rising energy prices resulting from war in Ukraine and Iran are eating into countries’ budgets. And a longstanding safety net has been weakened by cuts in foreign aid to poorer countries by the United States and other nations...

El Niño events typically peak in strength late in a calendar year, and then cause warmer global temperatures on land in the months that follow. As a result, many scientists predict that 2027 will be the warmest year on record....

We in the hurricane zone tend to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/climate/el-nino-history-famine.html?unlocked_article_code=1.lFA.ThFq.q5kViO24DzdH&smid=url-share

Additional history. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

[surfered]

1. Always...Hurricane Andrew devastated Florida during an El Nino Year

[slightlv]

2. From a personal angle, we've had more rain here than in many years past...

and they've been gully washers. Right at the time where every bit of my money goes to living expenses that have already been cut to the bone, but the roof needs to be replaced. We have a taste of those "gully washers" inside my house each time one hits the area. The house and land has shifted thanks to the years of drought, and now all the water runs downhill (of course) and in through the backdoor of my house. If I had the money, I'd give it up and move elsewhere. If I'm lucky, maybe it'll finally wash the house away and I can collect insurance. Until then, it's all up to me... and I've got $5k of medical costs I haven't even begun to pay down yet, let alone anything left for the roof. Somehow, keeping the lights on, the plumbing working, and us eating have been the highest priorities. I swear, trump is going to kill us, and no one will care.

[ancianita]

3. I'm sorry for what you've gone through, my friend. Being downhill in heavy rain is the worst I can imagine.

While I would never want the worst that El Nino brings to other regions, not one bit, the last time El Niño conditions significantly lessened Atlantic hurricane activity was in 2023. I was glad for that and thanked my lucky stars that year. I've learned that El Ninos haven't been known as such until recently, and that back in the day kept Atlantic hurricanes at bay but no one really knew why.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation