Planetary Solvency-finding our balance with nature: Global risk management for human prosperity

[limbicnuminousity]

This is an interesting prospective view of climate change and its effects written by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries at the University of Exeter. Actuaries, due to the nature of the job, lean towards the apolitical and hence are less prone to bias in their reporting. The report is well worth reading in its entirety. A sobering summary of anticipated outcomes is found on page 32 of the pdf. In short, the authors estimate 2-4+ billion deaths if we hit 2-3 degrees over pre-industrial levels by 2050 (which is the current trajectory).

https://actuaries.org.uk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-papers/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/

Risk monitoring

1. 12 month average temperatures have exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial level

• Global warming has accelerated, with average temperatures remaining over 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperature. The decadal rate of warming has increased to 0.26°C per decade. It is not yet known whether this recent increase is a temporary fluctuation or permanent shift. Climate scientists have yet to explain it fully.

• Global averages hide local extremes. Record high temperatures are occurring continuously across the globe, with multiple locations now experiencing 40°C to 50°C peaks. Polar regions are experiencing temperatures 30°C to 40°C higher than normal.

• There is a lag between greenhouse gas levels rising and temperatures increasing. We have not yet experienced the full extent of warming caused by current greenhouse gas levels.

The numbers proposed by Exeter's group are consistent with work by James Hansen out of Columbia (see Figure 10 at http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf). Hansen's professional publications and blog are a good resource for anyone interested in the subject and can be found at https://csas.earth.columbia.edu/about/people/james-e-hansen.

[Think. Again.]

1. Thank you for posting this.