BTRTN 2024 Election Snapshot 3: As Close As Can Be; Complete Update of Presidential, Senate, House, Gubernatorial Races

[reggieandlee]

Born to Run the Numbers provides the third "snapshot" of the 2024 election. This ongoing “Snapshot” feature contains no predictions; it is simply a view of where the various races – presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial — stand at the current moment. We issue BTRTN Snapshot updates whenever a critical mass of new polling comes in.

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/09/15/btrtn-2024-election-snapshot-3-as-close-as-can-be-complete-update-of-presidential-senate-house-gubernatorial-races/

Excerpts: "Plenty of new polls have come in over the past two weeks in presidential swing states and battleground Senate races, but none have shown any dramatic shifts in the election landscape. The presidential race remains impossibly close, the House is also up for grabs, and the Democrats face a near-impossible map in attempting to hold onto the Senate. There is only one truly competitive gubernatorial race...
"The Presidential race: Our BTRTN model continues to show Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead in what is essentially a toss-up election at this moment. We have reduced her odds of winning just a tad, from 55% (from two weeks ago) to 54%, reflecting a very modest tightening in some of the swing states. All seven of them are now within a 2-point margin. The national polls on average show Harris continuing to lead Trump by about two points. By our BTRTN swing state ratings — none of which we have changed despite the slight movement — Harris is currently ahead in states that total 287 electoral votes, more than the 270 required to win (to Trump’s 251). But note that few polls have been conducted since 67 million Americans saw Harris score a clear win in her debate with Trump (63%/37% according to a CNN snap poll), thus the debate and its aftermath may yet prove to be a catalyst. However, also note that given the tightness of the swing states, this race is as close as it can be."
See article for full analysis of Senate, House, and gubernatorial races."

[lees1975]

1. "all of them are within a two point margin"

Not true, if you just flip over to 538 and RCP.