BTRTN 2024 Election Snapshot: Complete Update of the Presidential, Senate, House and Governor Races
Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest "Snapshot" of the 2024 elections. This ongoing BTRTN feature is called a “Snapshot” for a reason – it contains no predictions, it is simply a view of where the various races – presidential, Senate, House and Governor — stand at the current moment:
https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/08/10/btrtn-2024-election-snapshot-complete-update-of-the-presidential-senate-house-and-governor-races/
Excerpts: "Presidential race: We have increased the odds of Kamala Harris winning the presidency from 48% to 50%, in recognition of her continued improving national and swing state polling, as well as her incredible fundraising haul and new volunteer sign-ups, which will benefit her (and the entire Democratic ticket). At the time of Biden’s withdrawal, we had his odds of winning at only 31%, and that might have been generous. We have changed the ratings of four states – Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina — from “Lean R” to 'Toss Up R. Click here for more info and data on the presidential race, including state-by-state polling and ratings...
"Senate races: We have raised the likelihood that the Democrats will hold the Senate from 12% to 18%, largely reflecting the improving odds of Kamala Harris winning the White House, which gives the Democrats control of the Senate outcome is 50/50 (which is the best-case scenario)...
"House races: We will not take a close look at the House races until the primary season is over. The Democrats need to flip +6 seats to take control of the House, and their odds of achieving control will be much higher than in the Senate. We will be back next time with our first look at those odds...
"Governor races. Back in 2022 there were 36 governor races; this year there are only 11, and we expect only three of them to be competitive (if that). We have not changed the rating on any of them.