Shapiro Helps In At Least One State, Walz Helps In 50

[appalachiablue]

Daily Kos, Aug. 4, 2024.

- Photo, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz: Rural voters, teachers, unions, farmers, seniors, Gen Z, Native Americans and Muslims all have more reason to vote for a Harris/Walz ticket.
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I am originally from Montana. I worked in two of Jon Tester's campaigns...and there's one vice presidential candidate more than any of the others who will help Jon Tester get reelected to his very essential Senate seat. That candidate is Tim Walz—because Walz speaks the language of resonance and respect for small town folks everywhere. He also understands their immense frustration and their profoundly appropriate need to be as acknowledged, supported and respected as fully as every other group of Americans.

As I think of the senatorial campaigns that are being contested, it is certain that Josh Shapiro can, and will help in Pennsylvania. It is not clear that he would help in any other states. However, for different reasons, Tim Walz will probably help in all of those Senate races...and in every other state in America. Oh, and GuavaBoy has the best one-liner yet!

In Arizona Walz certainly will help with the senior vote, the Native American Vote (and the guy vote). In Ohio he has a special appeal to all those steel workers in the southeast corner of the state. in Nevada his appeal to union workers and retirees could be incredibly helpful, and everywhere Walz will engage teachers and coaches (and people who had great teachers and coaches) and will help with voters trying to find an emotional reason to vote for a Democratic ticket.

He’s also incredibly popular with Gen Z, as my post yesterday pointed out..."I'm obsessed with Tim Walz." Parkland's David Hogg on Kamala's VP Selection. Here’s a great comment from that post (link). That, plus Biden thinks Tim Walz is a “blast.” AND Bernie Sanders just came out with an endorsement for Tim Walz. (Update) One of the comments in this thread said we only need seven states—and that could not be further from the truth. So let me list the reasons I can think of for why we need a 50-state outreach...and DKos readers probably have a bunch more...
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/4/2260557/-Shapiro-Helps-in-at-Least-1-State-Walz-Helps-in-50

[iemanja]

1. Walz on the ticket isn't necessary to carry MN

So while he may “help” with Dem voters, so does Shapiro. I don’t see a parallel with Tester because, to my knowledge, Walz doesn’t win Republican votes. Walz wins the same MN counties all Dems do. He doesn’t carry red counties. See this map from the 22 election. https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/minnesota/statewide-offices/

The swing area on that map is the arrowhead. In years the dems win, the arrowhead goes blue, in years the GOP wins, the arrowhead goes red. Walz carrying the arrowhead is probably the best argument for him, but MN is unlikely to go to Trump either way.

[appalachiablue]

2. Tx for the map, a huge block of red in those low pop. areas.

I think Shapiro could win in a number of states, definitely. But Walz has qualities and support that many see more positively. All the candidates are good, incl. Cooper and Brashear. We'll know the choice soon enough.

[iemanja]

3. I'm not anti-Walz in the least

He’s my governor, and I like him. Whomever Harris chooses is fine with me.

[appalachiablue]

5. Same, I'm fine with any choice. The next 3 months are critical, the real battle.

[Pinback]

8. "Veep home-state advantage" is a vestige of the distant past, say political scientists who wrote a book on the subject

The post at the link below excerpts a recent New York Magazine article citing the work of two political scientists who’ve thoroughly researched the subject:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219284836

“While presidential candidates typically enjoy a home-state advantage (approximately 3 points to 7 points), vice presidential candidates generally do not. … [A] presidential ticket performs no better in the vice presidential candidate’s home state than we would expect otherwise. Statistically speaking, the effect is zero.

We did find that veep home-state voters are more likely to care who wins an election compared with non-home state voters—but they aren’t more likely to turn out to vote, volunteer for or donate money to a campaign, influence other voters or attend political rallies."

Shapiro on the ticket isn't necessary to carry PA, either. Either Shapiro or Walz would be effective campaigners in their respective home states. Walz does seem to have a rare ability to connect with rural, moderate, and swing voters, as well as young and progressive voters.

[iemanja]

11. What the map shows

Is that Walz doesn't carry voters that other Dems don't. You think Walz has appeal outside of typical Democratic constituencies, but that has yet to be shown.

[Pinback]

12. You're from Minn. and know Walz and the state far better than I --

My view of Walz's rural prowess is based primarily on learning about his tenure in the 1st Congressional District, where he beat a Republican incumbent and held on to the seat for a decade, in a district that reverted to Republican representation when he left Congress in 2019 to run for governor.

In statewide races since then, it’s difficult to compare apples to apples. Walz’s appeal would seem to be pretty different from that of AG Keith Ellison, and Steve Simon’s opponent for Sec. of State in 2022 was the election denier Kim Crockett, so Fear Of The Crazy may have inspired some crossover votes for him (my uninformed armchair analysis). In Pennsylvania, Shapiro in 2022 did well around the state, although his opponent was Jan. 6 insurrectionist Doug Mastriano, who fortunately turned out to be a beatable foe who was apparently radioactive to many in the Republican establishment. (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/uphill-slog-gop-republicans-start-fleeing-mastriano-shapiro-pa-rcna37018)

On the Ezra Klein Show podcast (https://pod.link/1548604447) the other day, Walz admitted that Minnesota is more politically polarized today than when he was first elected to Congress, so it could be that the path to Dems winning statewide is now similar to other states (such as my home state of Georgia), where sheer numbers in metro Atlanta and other large-ish cities, plus (in the case of Georgia) turnout in majority Black counties in the “Black Belt” region, put Biden-Harris over the top in 2020.

Whoever gets the VP nod, I hope the ticket will be able to move beyond that formula somewhat, because a) it’s always better if you get buy-in from various constituencies and b) in a close statewide race, “losing by less” in a bunch of rural counties can help boost the numbers needed for victory.

[Agent Orange Tabby]

4. Only states their appeal matters are

MI
WI
PA
Georgia
AZ
NV

Especially with his union cred & gutturally authentic common sense appeal, I see Walz sweeping the Great Lakes as handily as Shapiro and PA for the same reason. His rhetorical mortar doesn’t just build coalitions, but momentum to turn out the vote in all the critical states. He & Buttigieg are unique political talents with star potential. Not a dig at Shapiro that he’s isn’t. Just like with Harris, Walz is the solution America needs at this moment in history but doesn’t deserve.

[Randomthought]

6. Well damn!

I may lose my governor, Peggy Flanagan is great but we still need Governor Walz in Minnesota.

[CNLGAMING]

7. praying

damnn hope u get through it

[FakeNoose]

9. Gov. Walz has the experience and leadership, Gov. Shapiro is still learning

I love my Governor Josh Shapiro and I want him to stay here in Pennsylvania. When we elected him just 2 years ago, we never considered that he might leave us for the national stage this soon. Let him finish out his first term as governor, let him get re-elected in 2026, and then steal him away from us after that.

Here in Pennsylvania what kept our last 3 or 4 elections on the straight-and-narrow path was the guiding hand and vigilance of our former Attorney General Josh Shapiro. That's been no small feat because the weaselly Repukes are advised by some of the worst cheats and election thieves in the country. They'd LOVE to see Josh chosen for the Dem ticket because it means he'd no longer be watching them while they try to pull their nasty election shit in October-November-December. It's exactly what they want.

We have such a deep bench in the Democratic Party. I will vote BLUE no matter who Kamala chooses as her running mate. But I really hope it's not Gov. Shapiro!

[lees1975]

10. All her picks are top of the line Democrats.

They all bring multiple qualities to the table which will help, especially given the trash they are running against.

I do think Shapiro is a bonus when it comes to Pennsylvania, but she's going to carry the Keystone state anyway. Pennsylvania always gets a lot of media attention because it has a lot of electoral votes, is in the Northeast and helps the media ratings. Democrats have had solid support there since the fiasco in 2016 of low turnout, and the Stein vote that cost Hillary the election. It's increased, not decreased. Harris will win it by somewhere between 4 and 6 points.

Shapiro brings a sharp minded, articulate, sensible voice along with him who would bury J.D. Vance in a debate, and who can explain, in layman's terms, things voters can understand. Walz brings his expertise and understanding of governing in the midwest, a microcosm of the rest of the country. Buttigieg is also the articulate explainer who doesn't let the narrative get away from him. Beshear is a masterful politician who has maintained popularity in a red state and his asset may be in talking enough red state voters into voting for Harris in places like Ohio and North Carolina. I like Mark Kelly a lot, the senator from my home state, but I think he does more for us in the Senate at this point, and they need to send Kari Lake packing in Arizona and he's teamed up with Ruben Gallego to do it.

The bottom line is that this is a critical decision but they're all good choices with good reasons behind them and none of them will hurt this effort at all. We need to win and we need to get the House and keep the Senate, and I think that's going to happen.

[Pinback]

13. Great assessment - thanks.

I agree with your take. It’s amazing that we have gone from scanning Zillow for homes in Denmark* just a couple of weeks ago to optimism and energy today.

* Kidding, of course. Mostly.

[dalton99a]

14. Kick

Advocates for Shapiro and Kelly had pointed to their coming from battleground states, home to contests which will decide the election in November, while Walz comes from a state that has been solidly Democratic for decades.

But on Tuesday, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, a leading polling analyst, pointed to progressive doubts about one competitor to Walz when he said: “Yes, Governor Josh Shapiro could have brought a bigger payoff (19 electoral votes) but Governor Tim Walz fills the age-old bill for VP nominees: first, do no harm.”

Elsewhere, Matthew Dowd, a former Republican operative, saluted a “smart pic by VP Harris” that he said would work to her advantage in northern battleground states.

Walz, Dowd said, would “help the entire campaign effort especially in places like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. As a native Michigander I can tell you Walz fits perfect in the Wolverine state.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/06/tim-walz-vp-pick-reaction