Get a Grip, Democrats. You Can Still Win This
“The presidential contest ended last night,” an unnamed “veteran Democratic political consultant” told NBC News the day after former President Donald Trump was grazed in the ear by an attempted assassin’s bullet. “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency,” said an anonymous “senior House Democrat” to Axios. No doubt, the last few weeks have been demoralizing for Democrats after Joe Biden’s unsettling debate performance and the dramatic photos of a bloodied yet unbowed Trump. But political professionals should know better than to predict defeat four months before Election Day, especially when polls remain close.
The ups and downs of the 2024 race should have already reminded us that an event today can be superseded by an event tomorrow. Not two months ago, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, and Biden was inching up in the polls. Just before the debate, Biden took a brief lead in the FiveThirtyEight national average and nearly did the same in RealClearPolitics. Then, the post-debate panic over Biden’s mental acuity knocked him back two or three points in those trackers. It is trite but true to note that a lot can happen over the next three months. We can’t be clairvoyant, but optimism is warranted. Israel and Hamas may soon agree to a ceasefire. Biden’s border crackdown may continue to drive down the number of illegal crossings and relieve pressure on municipalities. Perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and buoy public perception of the growing economy.
Many Democrats are understandably nervous about how Biden will perform in the campaign’s final weeks, but let’s not forget that Trump may do plenty to rankle swing voters, as he has throughout his political career. It’s not true that Trump always “gets away with it.” If he did, Republicans would have had better electoral performances in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
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The fundamentals of the 2024 election remain favorable to Democrats. Gross Domestic Product is growing. Unemployment is low. Wages have been beating inflation for more than a year. American soldiers aren’t fighting and dying in an unpopular ground war. For over a century, incumbent parties in power have won American elections under these conditions. Yes, we are facing an unusual set of X-factors that could render the lessons of history inoperative. But defeatism guarantees defeat. The Democrats may need to fight more of an uphill battle than necessary, but uphill battles can still be won.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/07/15/get-a-grip-democrats-you-can-still-win-this/
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