Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden

[Uncle Joe]

WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.

(snip)

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.”

(snip)

The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.

(snip)

Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performances and concerns over his age.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/

[Sinbad43]

1. We are not electing TV stars

We must elect someone we can trust with our lives and the future of this country.

We should never elect a con man, draft dodger, tax evader who drove six companies into bankruptcy.

[viva la]

2. Obama had a bad first debate.

Or so the media said.

And he won that election pretty handily.

[lees1975]

3. "Debate performance is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election."

If that were the case, Walter Mondale, who buried Reagan in 1980 in the debate, should have won, Al Gore would have won in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004, Hillary Clinton in 2016. And Obama should have lost in both 2012.