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NNadir

(34,096 posts)
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 11:07 AM Jun 2024

Energy Secretary Granholm calls for tripling of US nuclear fleet.

The Biden administration is taking climate change seriously:

Granholm calls for tripling of US nuclear fleet

Subtitle:

It is time for the USA to cash in on the experience of nuclear new-build at Vogtle, US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said at an event held to mark the completion of the two units in Georgia. Restarting recently retired nuclear plants could also play a part in meeting the need for new capacity.


From the text:

The two AP1000 units built as units 3 and 4 at the Vogtle site near Waynesboro, Georgia, entered commercial operation in July 2023 and April 2024, respectively. Granholm acknowledged the commitment, vision, cooperation and collaboration that went into the project to construct the first US nuclear units in a generation to be built "from scratch".

"This project is a prime example of how first-of-a-kind challenges can become 'nth-of-a-kind' successes, thanks to the work of those who came before and public-private partnerships," she said. First-mover projects of this size are too big and too financially risky for the private sector to do by itself, but are too important for the nation to fail to act, she said.

"To reach our goal of net-zero by 2050, we have to at least triple our current nuclear capacity in this country. That means we’ve got to add 200 more gigawatts by 2050," she said.

"And so it’s time to cash in on our investments by building more these facilities," she added,

In a later interview with Reuters, Granholm said building new reactors at nuclear power plant sites could be a cost-effective way of expanding US nuclear capacity - and also said some recently retired plants could restart. "I do think they can come back," she said, adding that she would be "surprised" if the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) - which recently conditionally committed up to USD1.52 billion for a loan guarantee to Holtec Palisades for its project to bring the Palisades plant back online - was not talking to operators of other shuttered plants about reopening as well. She said she was not involved in LPO's talks. The LPO does not reveal the status of loan applications...


The successful destruction of nuclear manufacturing infrastructure in the United States, which once built more than 100 commercial nuclear reactors while providing some of the lowest cost electricity in the world, by the de facto pro fossil fuel antinuclear industry, an industry masquerading as "environmental," drove up the cost of the Vogtle reactors, giving whiny antinukes, many of whom are decidedly bourgeois nickel and dime types lots of opportunity to whine about the cost of clean energy. The two reactors thus required more than 30 billion dollars to build. Although Secretary Granholm does not note it in this article, the second of the Vogtle reactors came in at a 30% lower cost than the first; the overall cost was asymmetric. The first was subject to FOAKE costs, "First of a Kind Engineering," where the engineering included the cost of rebuilding the infrastructure destroyed by appeals to fear and ignorance by people I personally regard as functional idiots. The building of the second benefited from the learning and built infrastructure that went into the first and its cost was lower.

Secretary Granholm wants this benefit to continue the trend. (There is talk of a third new nuclear reactor at Vogtle.)

Fossil fuels, about which these whiny bourgeois nickel and dime types are totally indifferent, ignoring their external costs, are "cheap" only because they are not required to manage their waste; they dump their waste directly into the planetary atmosphere, where as air pollution it kills millions of people each year, and as climate change is killing the planet as a whole. And let's be clear, the expensive and useless reactionary so called "renewable energy" scheme, embraced as advertising by the fossil fuel industry, is wholly and totally dependent on access to fossil fuels.

We hear a lot of whining by bourgeois types about the cost of building nuclear plants, all of which are borne by this generation, because the expense is something we cannot tolerate in our head up the ass culture of extreme selfishness: The reactors are gifts to future generations, the generations about whom our culture couldn't care less. The Vogtle reactors will almost certainly be operating as the 22nd second century approaches, at least if humanity arrives at the 22nd century, which it may not because the antinuke industry has been successful at demonizing our last best hope for doing away with fossil fuels, nuclear energy. The ability for the use of nuclear energy, which was a gift from the finest minds of the 20th century to our generation, has been spit upon, with an unbearable cost not only to ourselves, but to all who come after us.

Building new and sustainable infrastructure that will last for generations should not be expected to be "cheap." Decency often comes with a cost, and it is clear to me, if not to anyone else, that we should think beyond ourselves to provide a sustainable world.

I am personally very pleased with Secretary Granholm, as I was with President Obama's first Secretary of Energy, Steven Chu, who pushed to get the Vogtle reactors started. These two Energy Secretaries clearly understood decency. To my mind, their efforts at Vogtle represent a huge success, which, in the name of all that decency represents, we cannot afford to ignore.

Have a nice weekend.
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RandomNumbers

(18,059 posts)
1. Questions - if you can give concise answers:
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 11:18 AM
Jun 2024

What is the lifetime of each AP1000 unit?

How many residential homes is that expected to support on average during its lifetime?

What is the volume of radioactive waste product, produced in each year of that lifetime, that will need to be safely stored, and for how long will it need to be stored?

* I am asking in terms of residential homes because that is something an average non-expert can relate to.

** Besides accident risk (which is too complex to get into here), the other big item in the overall cost equation is the waste. Let's try to put that in understandable terms. That is the point of my questions. Your posts seem to focus mainly on the benefits; but the resistance to nukes is based on costs (actual and perceived).

If the answers can't be made concise, just say so, please. I'll admit I won't read a long screed.

NNadir

(34,096 posts)
3. Although these questions are rote, and the request for overly succinct answers reflects indifference, I'll try...
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 11:39 AM
Jun 2024

...to respond with sound bite answers.

Modern nuclear reactors are designed to operate for 80 years, but with better maintenance, and refurbishing, may be able to be operated at a century long scale. This type of work, refurbishing, is being carried out in Canada at both the Darlington and more recently, the Pickering plants in Canada. Both facilities will thus have been in service for close to a century.

I decline to answer the second question. Despite much foolishness from our "but her emails" media, the unit of energy is the Joule, not the "residential home."

Unlike fossil fuel waste, which kills about 7 million people per year, not even counting climate change, used nuclear fuel has a spectacular record of not killing anyone. I often challenge people who whine about used nuclear fuel to show that in the 70 year history of nuclear energy, that the storage of this valuable resource, has killed as many people as will die from air pollution in the next ten hours, about ten thousand people. I consider used nuclear fuel a valuable resource for future generations, since it is source of plutonium and other higher actinides. It takes time, effort, and the ability to care about the world to understand this much, and a great deal of highly selective attention to ignore it.

Understanding that you may not have the interest to read anything that takes time, the reference to the death toll associated with fossil fuels is here:

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (Lancet Volume 396, Issue 10258, 17–23 October 2020, Pages 1223-1249).

As for the big "accident" bogeyman, the intolerable whining about Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, this is, to my mind, all mindless hype whipped up by our "but her emails" media. It's garbage thinking.

Again, it's not a soundbite, but the lives saved by nuclear energy are described in a paper with one of the world's most prominent climate scientists, Jim Hansen, as a coauthor, including reference to these overly hyped accidents is here:

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power (Pushker A. Kharecha* and James E. Hansen Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (9), pp 4889–4895)

Nuclear energy need not be without risk to be vastly superior to everything else; it only has to be vastly superior to everything else, which it is.

I trust I didn't waste too much of your time with my answers.

RandomNumbers

(18,059 posts)
5. So your answers are:
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 12:14 PM
Jun 2024

1. 100 years, +/- 20 years depending on maintenance, etc. (Thank you for that answer.)

2. You refuse to answer in terms understandable to a layperson.

3. Zero. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the nuclear waste issue is a non-issue - "waste" is actually fuel that can be re-used. If this is true in practice, then it's great, and we should never hear about Yucca Mountain or similar siting concerns again. (I would actually be interested in a link to a layperson-readable article about the successes and future prognosis of the used-fuel reuse technology.)

You seem to have completely misread my intentions, but that part's okay, I'm accustomed to your posting style, and I know you get a lot of flak at DU sometimes.

That said, I think accusing another poster of bad intentions or indifference to things that matter, or posting with the level of disdain that you show, is not in the spirit of the DU site's intentions for people who are supposedly on approximately the same page politically. I would recommend that at least occasionally you allow for the possibility that someone COULD be won over to your position, if you treated them nicely. It's just a thought.

I have to add, in reference to the question in #2: I deal with this sort of problem framing EVERY DAY in my job. It is PART of my job - in fact, a very LARGE part of my job - to answer questions for people in ways they can understand. To find what the other person's frame of reference is, then do my level best to give a reasonably accurate answer within those terms; or at least give them something to work with to which they can relate. If I insulted every customer or non-technical colleague because they don't understand MY terms, I wouldn't have a job very long.

NNadir

(34,096 posts)
6. I am often requested to "be nice" so that people are inclined to "believe" me.
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 01:29 PM
Jun 2024

Over the years, I've responded with this analogy:

A man sees somebody walking along the railroad tracks and sees a train approaching at high speed. He yells, "Hey asshole, get the fuck off the train tracks, a train is coming!"

The person on the tracks says, "ask me nicely and I'll consider it."


I'm happy you have a important job, dumbing down information. That's not my job however. If you're familiar with my writing, as you say you are, (I am unfamiliar with yours), I have expressed these points before many times. We don't live in times where "being nice" has much value, particularly since the planet is in flames. We're on the tracks.

Like the tee shirt I got from the AAAS says: Facts are facts.

If one thinks that one should only "believe" facts when they are stated nicely and cutely, one is in dangerous territory. Indeed, many important facts have been stated or discovered by complete assholes: The solid phase transistor was invented by the White Supremacist William Shockley. The fact that he was a White Supremacist has no bearing on the fact that the transistor works.

It is a fact that nuclear energy saves lives and is the most effective tool at fighting climate change, just as in the analogy, it is a fact that a train is coming at high speed.

Now, let me tell you something about the purported energy unit "residential homes." It is misleading in the extreme, and is most often applied to the useless and reactionary so called "renewable energy" industry, which I regard as lipstick on the fossil fuel pig. Some valuable land or offshore ecosystems are rendered into an industrial plant for wind turbines, laced with access roads, wiring and concrete and the media reports that the energy which they illiterately use the unit of power, the Watt, usually referring dishonestly to the peak power as opposed to the average (continuous) power to report that a wind industrial plant can power zillions of "homes." The problem with this misleading terminology is that the wind often doesn't blow (which any fool should be able to discern) and no one seems to note that something else will be required if the wind doesn't blow, or else "the homes" will be without power. That "something else" is fossil fuels.

As a scientist I have no question as to whether dumbing down often lapses into misleading information.

Thanks for your kind response.

RandomNumbers

(18,059 posts)
8. It's not dumbing down
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 01:40 PM
Jun 2024

to give approximate answers that are in the user's terminology and help that user understand the situation better.

You are trying to convince people by screaming at them, I'm just suggesting that's not an effective approach. Kind of like you are claiming that "renewable" energy technology isn't effective, but nuclear is.

Enjoy your day, I'm outta here.

NNadir

(34,096 posts)
10. Bye. Oh and by the way...
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 03:00 PM
Jun 2024

...I'm not really screaming so much as soberly expressing contempt, but if I screamed that 1 + 1 = 2, that would not make 1 + 1 = 5.

 

SarahD

(1,732 posts)
7. I don't think he's accusing us.
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 01:32 PM
Jun 2024

The insults and accusations seemed to be aimed at a category of people. I don't think our posts are considered carefully enough to decide if we belong in that category or not. The responses are not specific to our comments and questions, so that's where I start.

NNadir

(34,096 posts)
12. The evocation of numbers and the Biden administration policy are not "insults."
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 03:52 PM
Jun 2024

They are statements of facts.

Now as to whether referring dismissively to the Biden administration's Secretary of Energy, in my view an outstanding public official, as "Jenny" is or is not an insult of that fine official, is not for me to say. Secretary Granholm is a fine, highly intelligent woman for whom I have great respect. As a long time politician, I'm sure she has a thick skin.

I reserve the right to lack respect for people whose ignorance kills people, the magnitude of the death toll being reported in these fine scientific publications, which are open sourced and available for serious person to read and which use numbers:

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power (Pushker A. Kharecha* and James E. Hansen Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (9), pp 4889–4895)

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (Lancet Volume 396, Issue 10258, 17–23 October 2020, Pages 1223-1249).

As to whether whiny bourgeois balderdash should be "considered," I reserve the right to consider it for what it is.

Again, the literature citations are for serious people; unserious people have no trouble ignoring them.

cojoel

(990 posts)
9. Annual joules consumption and Waste
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 02:41 PM
Jun 2024

I found one estimate, which said a house in the United States consumes approximately 10,649,000,000 Joules per year. That is probably all power (including gas/propane) but nevertheless a crude estimate of the number of households could be computed if the expect joules output was known.

Whether waste is a future fuel or not, it still needs to be safely stored in the meantime. Currently spent fuel is stored on the sites where they were spent, because there is no place to put it and no real means to transport it anywhere else.

NNadir

(34,096 posts)
11. Your numbers are incorrect as they are off by orders of magnitude.
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 03:42 PM
Jun 2024

The correct numbers are posted at the EIA's website going back to 1973 in table 1.2.

Numbers are important. People lie, to themselves and to each other, but numbers don't lie.

Regrettably the units in the EIA table are "Quads," an unfortunate English unit of a quadrillion "BTU." The conversion factor of "Quads" to the SI unit Exajoule is 1.055056 EJ per quad to the number of significant figures given in the EIA table. EJ, Exajoules, are 1018 Joules.

Summing, using the Excel format of the data for 2023, we see that the US energy consumption was 102.815275 "Quads" which translated to SI units is 108.4758728 EJ, or 108.4758728 X 1018 Joules.

I will translate the numbers in Quads to the SI unit EJ.

Of this, with the planet in flames owing to the whining of antinukes, regrettably only 8.546828241 EJ was produced by nuclear energy, using largely infrastructure completed in the 20th century, compared to the 1.530782861 EJ to the useless expensive fossil fuel dependent wind industry, and the equally useless expensive fossil fuel dependent solar industry, which produced 0.925854897 EJ. Biomass combustion, which contributes to the death toll associated with air pollution, contributed 5.443922261 EJ.

Whiny bourgeois antinukes have spent the last 50 years saying that we didn't need nuclear energy because so called "renewable energy" was so great. They have always been disinterested in the cost in health, environmental and direct use of fossil fuels. In 2023, the United States consumed 91.03879135 EJ of fossil fuels. Nevertheless, combined, wind, solar and biomass produced 7.900560019 EJ in 2023, less than nuclear, with wind and solar and biomass soaking up vast sums of money, and nuclear under constant attack by intellectual and moral Lilliputians despite its low external and internal costs as measured over lifetimes.

On global scale, numbers ignored by penny pinching antinukes, the expenditures on so called "renewable energy" have been extreme:

The amount of money spent on so called "renewable energy" since 2015 is 4.12 trillion dollars, compared to 377 billion dollars spent on nuclear energy, mostly to keep vapid cultists spouting fear and ignorance from destroying the valuable nuclear infrastructure.



IEA overview, Energy Investments.

The graphic is interactive at the link; one can calculate overall expenditures on what the IEA dubiously calls "clean energy."

It's triply amusing because of the antinuke rhetoric that flies around here about cost. The real cost of antinuke rhetoric is global warming and a vast death toll associated with air pollution.

Thanks for your interest.

hunter

(38,717 posts)
15. "Terms understandable to a layperson." That got me thinking.
Sun Jun 9, 2024, 10:58 PM
Jun 2024

We could measure things in terms of Vogtle 3 & 4 AP1000 nuclear power plants.

How many U.S. Americans could a single AP1000 power plant support? That's supposing their homes were electric, transportation was electric, the businesses and industries they worked for were electric, etc., etc.

Knowing the U.S.A population that's a number we could calculate from this chart:

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/flow-graphs/total-energy.php

Excluding exports, the chart says 18.43 + 16.08 + 31.08 + 27.99 quadrillion BTU

A single AP1000 nuclear reactor has an output of about 1100 Megawatts electric.

I'll leave that hanging for now.

Once you've got that number, how many wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries would it take to produce an equivalent amount of energy? That's with no cheating, no using other fuels, especially fossil fuels as "backup power."

All I'm gonna say right now is that should I choose to be energy self sufficient in this society by putting solar panels on my roof, and batteries in the shed, I'm gonna need a bigger roof...

The jaws of climate change are closing in around us. Big numbers are involved. We can't be futzing around with childish units like "number of houses."

 

SarahD

(1,732 posts)
2. Take a deep breath, Jenny.
Sat Jun 8, 2024, 11:30 AM
Jun 2024

The Navy nuke problem will have to wait until there are more civilian nuke plants. The reason people signed up to be Navy nukes is because they looked forward to becoming civilian nuke technicians when they got out of the Navy. Without a robust civilian nuke sector, the Navy can't offer much incentive. Lack of qualified personnel is a big reason the Navy trimmed its nuclear fleet.

Response to SarahD (Reply #2)

sl8

(16,137 posts)
13. Would you say "Take a deep breath, Joey?" if you disagreed with Pres. Biden?
Sun Jun 9, 2024, 07:58 AM
Jun 2024

Saying, "Take a deep breath, Jenny", strikes me as more than a little disrespectful to Secretary Granholm.

 

SarahD

(1,732 posts)
14. Sure I would.
Sun Jun 9, 2024, 10:07 AM
Jun 2024

Because I think she is basically right, if getting a little ahead of herself. So I don't disagree with her except for one little detail.

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