On This Day: Nixon signs ABM treaty; later Bush withdraws amid criticism of a dangerous move - May 26, 1972
(edited from article)
"
Did abandoning the ABM Treaty make America safer?
June, 2019
This month marks the seventeenth anniversary of the United States withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a landmark agreement from the Cold War that limited American and Soviet (and subsequently, Russian) ground-based, anti-ballistic missile defense systems. Originally signed May 26, 1972, between American President Richard Nixon and Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev, the treaty was designed to limit both sides’ missile defense capabilities and prevent the establishment of a large-scale (regional or nationwide) system that could minimize the impact of a nuclear strike and unsettle strategic stability. In hindsight, the treaty’s abandonment 17 years ago can be viewed as an opening salvo in the unraveling of the arms control system and American-Russian relations we see continuing to this day.
The intent to withdraw from the ABM treaty was formally announced by the George W. Bush administration in December 2001, shortly after the September 11 attacks and during a period in which policymakers were grappling with the new threats posed by terrorist organizations and “rogue states” rather than the decades-old threat of a great-power war. A nuclear weapon detonation in an American city by al Qaeda or a small number of missiles launched by a country like North Korea were viewed as more pressing threats to the American public than war with Russia, and the Bush administration argued that maintaining the ABM Treaty only restrained the United States from pursuing a missile defense system that could theoretically defend against one of those threats (rogue state actors.)
The Government Accountability Office estimates that since U.S withdrawal from the treaty in 2002, the Missile Defense Agency has been allocated about $142 billion for various ballistic missile defense systems, with $67 billion going toward the [Ground-based Midcourse Defense system] GMD program. Advocates for missile defense have continued to point to “rogue states” as the justification for continued investments in GMD, even though its performance in testing scenarios has been inconsistent at best.
Since the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty 17 years ago, relations between Russia and the United States have deteriorated significantly, and despite the rosy predictions by President Bush and his administration at the time, the world is likely in a more dangerous situation today as countries race toward nuclear modernization and the development of new weapons technologies specifically designed to circumvent missile defense systems. Some fear the announced abandonment of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, along with new Russian nuclear capabilities, could call into question the future of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and mark a near-complete unraveling of the decades-old arms control regime. Should the United States and Russia seek closer relations on nuclear weapons issues in the future, leaders from both countries will need to reassess the efficacy of missile defense systems and whether they contribute to the mutual goal of increasing international strategic stability.
"
https://armscontrolcenter.org/did-abandoning-the-abm-treaty-make-america-safer/
(edited from Wikipedia)
"
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, also known as the ABM Treaty or ABMT, was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems used in defending areas against ballistic missile-delivered nuclear weapons. It was intended to reduce pressures to build more nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence. Under the terms of the treaty, each party was limited to two ABM complexes, each of which was to be limited to 100 anti-ballistic missiles.
Signed in 1972, it was in force for the next 30 years. In 1997, five years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, four former Soviet republics agreed with the United States to succeed the USSR's role in the treaty. Citing risks of nuclear blackmail, the United States withdrew from the treaty in June 2002, leading to its termination.
ABM Treaty
The United States first proposed an anti-ballistic missile treaty at the 1967 Glassboro Summit Conference during discussions between U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara and Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union Alexei Kosygin. McNamara argued both that ballistic missile defense could provoke an arms race, and that it might provoke a first-strike against the nation fielding the defense. Kosygin rejected this reasoning. They were trying to minimize the number of nuclear missiles in the world. Following the proposal of the Sentinel and Safeguard decisions on American ABM systems, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks began in November 1969 (SALT I). By 1972 an agreement had been reached to limit strategic defensive systems. Each country was allowed two sites at which it could base a defensive system, one for the capital and one for ICBM silos.
The treaty was signed during the 1972 Moscow Summit on 26 May by the President of the United States, Richard Nixon and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Leonid Brezhnev; and ratified by the U.S. Senate on 3 August 1972.
The 1974 Protocol reduced the number of sites to one per party, largely because neither country had developed a second site. The sites were Moscow for the USSR and the North Dakota Safeguard Complex for the US, which was already under construction.
After the dissolution of the USSR; United States and Russia
Although the Soviet Union ceased to exist in December 1991, in the view of the U.S. Department of State, the treaty continued in force. Russia was confirmed as the USSR's successor state in January 1992. An additional memorandum of understanding was prepared in 1997, establishing Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine as successor states to the Soviet Union, for the purposes of the treaty.
In the United States, there was a debate on whether after the dissolution of the USSR, the ABM Treaty was still in effect. A month after the USSR's dissolution, President George H. W. Bush affirmed the ABM Treaty and regarded Russia as USSR's successor. Russia also accepted the ABM Treaty. Later on, President Clinton would affirm the validity of the treaty, as would President George W. Bush (before he terminated it). However, some Americans (mostly conservative Republicans) argued that the treaty was not in effect because the USSR had no successor state.
United States withdrawal
On 13 December 2001, George W. Bush gave Russia notice of the United States' withdrawal from the treaty, in accordance with the clause that required six months' notice before terminating the pact—the first time in recent history that the United States has withdrawn from a major international arms treaty. This led to the eventual creation of the American Missile Defense Agency.
[A "fatal blow"]
Supporters of the withdrawal argued that it was a necessity in order to test and build a limited National Missile Defense to protect the United States from nuclear blackmail by a rogue state. But, the withdrawal had many foreign and domestic critics, who said the construction of a missile defense system would lead to fears of a U.S. nuclear first strike, as the missile defense could blunt the retaliatory strike that would otherwise deter such a preemptive attack. John Rhinelander, a negotiator of the ABM treaty, predicted that the withdrawal would be a "fatal blow" to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and would lead to a "world without effective legal constraints on nuclear proliferation". Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry also criticized the U.S. withdrawal as a very bad decision.
[Putin responds by ordering nuclear build-up]
Newly elected Russian president Vladimir Putin responded to the withdrawal by ordering a build-up of Russia's nuclear capabilities, designed to counterbalance U.S. capabilities, although he noted there was no immediate danger stemming from the US withdrawal.
Russia and the United States signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty in Moscow on 24 May 2002. This treaty mandates cuts in deployed strategic nuclear warheads, but without actually mandating cuts to total stockpiled warheads, and without any mechanism for enforcement.
On June 13, 2002, the US withdrew from ABM (having given notice 6 months earlier). The next day, Russia responded by declaring it would no longer abide by the START II treaty, which had not entered into force.
In interviews with Oliver Stone in 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin said that in trying to persuade Russia to accept US withdrawal from the treaty, both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had tried, without evidence, to convince him of an emerging nuclear threat from Iran.
On 1 March 2018, Russian president Vladimir Putin, in an address to the Federal Assembly, announced the development of a series of technologically new "super weapons" in response to U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty. His statements were referred to by an anonymous US official under the Trump administration as largely boastful untruths. He said that the U.S. decision triggered him to order an increase in Russia's nuclear capabilities, designed to counterbalance U.S. ones.
In 2021, Putin cited U.S. withdrawal among his grievances against the West: "We tried to partner with the West for many years, but the partnership was not accepted, it didn't work," often citing it as one of America's great post-Cold War sins.
"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Ballistic_Missile_Treaty
---------------------------------------------------------
On This Day: Maryland and Pennsylvania agree to exchange prisoners - May 25, 1738
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016378239
On This Day: Judgement of Paris catapults California wine industry, changes wine forever - May 24, 1976
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016378189
On This Day: Hero anti-mafia judge, wife, police officers, assassinated in massive blast - May 23, 1992
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016378138
On This Day: Amnesty for Confederates contributes to "virtual apartheid" for Black Americans - May 22, 1872
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016378033
On This Day: Ringling Circus closes amid cost/cruelty issues; relaunches in 2023 without animals - May 21, 2017
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016377977