Strait of Hormuz reopening may take weeks to ease shipping backlog and oil pressure

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Jun 18 2026 4:10 AM EDT


It will take weeks to clear the backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, industry executives and shipping experts have warned, as the critical waterway is set to reopen.

Oil prices initially dipped below $80 per barrel on news that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on a deal to end their war, as traders looked to the supply of oil, LNG and other goods being restored after nearly four months of war caused a maritime traffic jam of ships unable or unwilling to transit the Strait.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. It calls for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls by Iran for at least 60 days. But restoring enough physical supply to the market to keep prices at a stable sub-$80 level could take weeks, and in some cases months, market watchers have told CNBC.

Operators, port authorities and energy companies across the Gulf remain in a holding pattern, with key logistical and security questions still unresolved. “The most likely scenario is a phased restart, with some form of traffic-management mechanism involving Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/strait-hormuz-reopening-shipping-oil.html

[WSHazel]

1. It is strange that oil is under $75/barrel this morning

If this pending shortage is so obvious to everyone, why is anyone selling at $75/barrel? It is possible that demand destruction and producers bypassing the Strait has reached a level that the blockade is not as effective as conventional wisdom believes it is.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Since the main hold-up for the supply was transport and not production

they are sitting on a glut at the moment, and once the transport issue is dealt with, they are going to have to calibrate that to keep the prices up above "breakeven", otherwise it could crash into the $50/bbl range.

[WSHazel]

3. I think $50/barrel is a good target

Demand continues to decline with renewables and electrification, in addition to reduced demand per person. This puts downward price pressure on suppliers. It also encourages more production because if the long term trend is negative then producers want to produce today instead of in 5 years.