Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, on path to 'soft landing' with no meaningful layoffs

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Sat, Sep 7 2024 7:05 PM EDT Updated Moments Ago


Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure the public on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains strong, despite a string of weak job reports that have rattled investors and weighed on the stock market.

“We’re seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we’re not seeing meaningful layoffs,” Yellen said at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “I’m attentive to downside risk now on the employment side, but what I think we’re seeing, and hope we will continue to see, is a good, solid economy.”

Yellen said job growth has slowed compared to the “hiring frenzy” when the U.S. reopened after the Covid-19 pandemic, but the economy is “deep into a recovery” and “basically operating at full employment.”

The treasury secretary’s comments come a day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported another month of cooler-than-expected jobs data.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/07/yellen-says-us-economy-remains-solid-heading-toward-soft-landing.html

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Because Joe Biden invested in manufacturing and infrastructure

and digital access for remote and gig workers, softening cyclical economic impact. Limits on oil fluctuation too.

When history is written Joe Biden leveraged every bit of knowledge he learned with robust economic advisors.

[Backseat Driver]

2. ..."no meaningful layoffs."

Really? How many times can "It's nothing personal, just business, be applied, "huh, Janet, and it usually precedes all varieties of socioeconomic and physical and mental health issues with which the rest of us must cope or die. Ask the panel of "so special" SCOTUS justices who aren't subject to laws and precedents that apply to anyone else...

[BumRushDaShow]

3. I think that is a business buzz term

Stats-focused folks have their own, often narrow (but supposedly "objective" ) lingo.

It's like how weather forecasters use the term "sensible weather" - not meaning "reasonable" or "expected" or "typical", but literally meaning "what is able to be measured and recorded by weather instruments".

[Backseat Driver]

4. Ah, the benefits of parsing...a period.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. I remember after Obama was inaugurated in January 2009

that month there were an excruciating near-600,000 people laid off just for that month alone. During his first couple months in office, the stock market bottomed out to around 6,000 after having peaked at 14,000 in October 2007.

That is what Shrub left him.

[progree]

6. Job growth average over last 3 months: 116,000 jobs/month. For year-to-date: 184,000 jobs/month avg

The lower growth 5 months April through August: 135,000 jobs/month average.



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 251 862 494 272 286 420 690 243 255 361 258 136
2023: 482 287 146 278 303 240 184 210 246 165 182 290
2024: 256 236 310 108 216 118 89 142 (Sum is 1475 year to date, that's 1.475 million, which is 184k/month average)
The last 2 months (July and Aug) are preliminary, subject to revisions

Part of the reason for the slowdown is that nobody wants to work anymore....









PRIME AGE (age 25-54) labor force participation rate



Oh. Never mind.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060

For the curious - the regular "official" LFPR -- which is ages 16+, yes includes centenarians:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000