A Californian's view of the Governor race fiasco

[senseandsensibility]

I call it a fiasco because it has just gone from a typically messy Democratic primary where there are too many Dems fighting each other to something that could be much worse. That's because of the allegations against Eric Swalwell. If you'd like to know more about that RandySF has a great OP in General Discussion right now.

What I wanted to share with you is that it was already getting a little nasty here. Tom Steyer is running attack ads against Swalwell (although they don't mention any allegations of sexual misconduct). Swalwell is running attack ads against Steyer, but he can't afford as many. Yesterday Ro Khana announced he is endorsing Steyer because of Steyer's support for Medicare For All. He did not mention any allegations against Swalwell. Katie Porter has been talking about the allegations though for days now.

I'm starting to get a little stressed out here. It's been easy to brush off the warnings that a Republican could take advantage of our inability to coalesce around a candidate. I'm used to highly competitive Democratic primaries here that can and do get messy. That's because the Dem nominee is essentially the winner in California. It's the whole enchilada if you win the nomination. But it seems the race seems to be entering an urgent new stage now. I hope the Dems get it together soon.

[mr715]

1. Swalwell has to drop out.

The allegations are serious and this is the trade off in a jungle primary.

[mr715]

8. No he did not.

Maine, however, does not have a jungle primary.

Incidentally, the primary has not happened yet in either state so they both could drop out.

Also, if the allegations against Swalwell are substantiated there are a good deal worse than the Platner stuff - and I am no fan of his. But I'm reading full on sexual misconduct vs. a lot of dumb talk (and nazi iconography).

[mr715]

21. There is no due process in politics.

He isn't owed anything by virtue of running for office.

[choie]

25. Everybody is owed due process.

Even trump had his day in court

[mr715]

26. In legal affairs yes

not in politics.

[fujiyamasan]

36. Politics offers its own binary form of due process

Either a candidate wins or doesn’t. It’s a trial by public opinion. Is it fair?

That’s ultimately for the voters to decide.

[mr715]

23. ...no...?

[Norrrm]

2. Politics is a blood sport.

[tinrobot]

3. Swallwell, Porter and Steyer seem locked in three way race to the bottom.

Meanwhile, Becerra is more experienced in government than any of them. Congress, statewide office, and cabinet secretary.

He's not the most charismatic, but he'd still be a great governor.

Sadly, the people with the loudest voices are crowding him out.

[senseandsensibility]

4. I agree with your opinion about Becerra

Maybe he'll start getting more attention now. There is also a woman named Betty Yee, the former controller of CA running. She has some great, light hearted ads.

[chowder66]

13. Yep, I like Becerra and Yee.

[a kennedy]

7. Dah, and seriously, a body builder got to be POTUS

He's not the most charismatic, but he'd still be a great governor.. Does the Governor HAVE to be charismatic???

[tinrobot]

10. Doesn't have to be. But it does help win over lesser informed voters.

Obama was charismatic and it helped him win.

But personally, I'd be fine with boring but capable. These three front runners are wearing me out.

[LeftInTX]

9. Not a fan of jungle primaries...Hopefully it does not result in two Rs!

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. If it does, my guess is the legislature will change the law by the end of Newsom's term. Nt

[ITAL]

18. It's not a law, it's part of the constitution

They would start working on getting a ballot measure to repeal Prop 14 though.

[chowder66]

11. I wish Betty Yee would poll better outside of the party convention...

Betty Yee, who left her post as state controller in 2023, has consistently polled in the low single digits (opens in new tab) in a crowded Democratic field — often at 1% or 2%, topping out in a recent survey (opens in new tab) at 5%. Yet at the party convention, she won a shocking 17% (opens in new tab) of votes from statewide delegates, second only to East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had 24%.

“She’s beloved and respected by everyone who knows her,” Newman said. “But sadly, that alone isn’t enough to win a governor’s race.”
Yee argues that her fiscal expertise as the state’s former top financial officer is exactly what California needs. She says that as a reported $18 billion budget deficit (opens in new tab) looms next fiscal year, she can be a governor who knows where every dollar goes and how to get the most out of each one.

She has raised more than $2 million for her campaign — approximately 3% of the war chest amassed by Steyer, who has poured tens of millions of his own money into the race. Yee has frequently criticized (opens in new tab) her opponents as a “Billionaire Boys Club.” Her latest campaign finance report shows (opens in new tab) about $535,000 in cash on hand.

“I know what I’m up against,” she said. “I’ve always been the one who doesn’t raise the most.”


https://sfstandard.com/2026/03/02/betty-yee-governor-polling/

[Sympthsical]

29. I love Betty Yee!

I have only ever heard really nice things about her. Like you, I'm a little bummed she hasn't gotten more traction. She isn't nearly as flashy a media personality as the other candidates.

She's just a hard worker, which is what we need, but it isn't what will catch voters' interest in a high profile gubernatorial race.

In a just world, Governor Yee would be a thing.

[chowder66]

32. It's just weird that some people don't take the time to learn about the candidates and their qualifications.

Name recognition seems to be the most important aspect from the start.

I also think Xavier Becerra has some pretty good qualifications and I find it odd that he hasn't polled higher. He has a little more name recognition but whatever.

[Sympthsical]

33. Media presence is everything

Swalwell has been very vocal in going after Trump, active on social media, doing every interview round he can. The man likes attention. Porter has been a darling in progressive circles for her skits in Congress (the white board!). Steyer really just has the money to buy his visibility.

I am surprised, particularly in a heavily Latino state, Becerra hasn't gotten much traction either. But I feel like being a Cabinet secretary almost dooms someone politically. It isn't a very visible role, and it's easy for the public to kind of forget you exist.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. Has Swallwell issued a statement/denial yet?

Considering he has lost several top staffers, and the woman is named in the reports, this seems pretty serious.

Combine this with the ethical issues around him trying to sell the services of his AI startup on Capitol Hill, and things aren’t looking good for Swallwell.

[senseandsensibility]

15. Yes, he released a complete denial

It was read on CNN a little while ago.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. And yet, four top staffers have quit.

Just saw the new reports that three more women have accused him of sexual misconduct.

Not looking good.

Unless it can be proved that all four women are lying, He needs to drop out of the race, and resign from Congress.

[senseandsensibility]

17. I think if he wants to proclaim innocence

he needs to address the claims on camera at the very least.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. And now there are four women accusing him. Nt

[FHRRK1]

24. Fellow Californian

Give it 30 days. The two Repubs have 25 percent combined. One Dem just needs to get to 15.

Granted, if you would have asked me 30 days ago I would have bet Swalwell would be the one to break out to a lead.

[Sympthsical]

27. As a fellow Californian, we'll be ok

I know it's easy to be anxious given the state of *gestures at everything*, but we still have seven weeks until the primary.

I think we're kind of getting that last gasp of jockeying before we start seeing some drop outs and endorsements in the coming weeks.

I honestly think this might have been the ideal time for this to come out. Later would have been more chaotic. After the primary if Swalwell had won would've been a disaster.

There's been a tenor to things that the Democratic plane is practically crashing before take-off for the past several months. For me, it feels like we still have a fair bit of runway left.

If this is still going on by, say, May 5th or so, ok. Then I'll be on the "WTF, guys?!" train.

[Lovie777]

28. I'll say Republicans are on a mission .................

to fully taint the Governor's race for Democrats.

[KitFox]

30. Appreciate your perspective and insights. Thank you!

[senseandsensibility]

31. Why thank you!

And welcome to DU! At least you seem like a newcomer to an old timer like me.

[KitFox]

34. Thank you. I read DU for years and last year I became a member. I haven't gotten into postings of my own yet, just

replying on others’ posts. It was years ago, but I think I found the link to DU on Common Dreams. And what a find! Sorry to hear about the Swallwell developments. Will watch for any updates you share. I’m your neighbor to the north in rural Oregon. 😊

[Boo1]

35. I see the past week as being nothing but good enws for Democrats in CA

Swalwell is DONE. His name might still appear on the ballot, but he's toast. His staffers are always all hitting the door and his support will collapse. There isn't any coming back from this number of accusations at this point in the race.

Looking at the prediction markets, Swalwell's odds have fallen off a cliff today, going from 50% to make the general to under 5% a few hours ago.

Then on the other side, Trump did his normal fuck things up routine and actually endorsed one of the GOP candidates after being begged not to. That is going to boost Hiltons campaign at the expense of Bianco's.

All of this makes it much more likely that the top Democrat will be in the top 2 of the primary. That Democrat will walk to a win in November without much of a fight.

The Democrats needed the field to thin, and that's happening now. And, even in the unlikely event that Republican did manage to win the Governor race, Democrats control 75% of the legislature. They could effectively govern around the Governor, overiding vetos and stripping power, all while being backed up by the state courts.

[Celerity]

37. There is no 'Dem nominee' in CA. CA has a jungle primary, with the top 2 vote getters, regardless of party, moving on to

the general. There is no Democratic primary.

You said:

I'm used to highly competitive Democratic primaries here that can and do get messy. That's because the Dem nominee is essentially the winner in California.

[Skittles]

38. I see our resident fly-under has been chiming in

and deleting