Polymarket takes down nuclear detonation bet after online backlash

[usonian]

https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-nuclear-detonation-market-bet-backlash-removal-2026-3?op=1

Overnight, Polymarket took down a market that allowed users to trade on where a nuclear weapon would detonate by March 31, June 30, or simply before 2027.

Traders who bet yes on any of those timelines would be paid out if there were a nuclear detonation anywhere on Earth, including in an offensive use, a test, or even an accidental detonation.

The market had over $650,000 in total trading volume as of Tuesday, according to an archived snapshot of the site. A message on the webpage now reads: "This event has been archived."

snip

The suspension came after several users on X expressed outrage about the existence of the market, particularly amid a raft of suspicious trades on the platform in the wake of the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

snap


My personal guess?
That an insider knows that it's better than even odds by April, for four reasons:

That's Three

and four:

[Vinca]

1. The worst part is, I absolutely expect Trump to drop a nuke. And Iran would be his perfect target.

[Lancero]

7. Rate Irans going, Pakistan would be more likely to send off the first nuke.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a mutual defense pact, and given how intent Iran is to attack every country around it - Even the ones that are tangentially allied with them - it wouldn't be much of a surprise if one of the IRGC commanders decides to start targeting desalinization plants.

So far Saudi Arabia hasn't felt threatened enough to call on Pakistan for aid. But, since these desalinization plants account for 70% of the water that SA uses? Iran being stupid enough to bomb them would be severe enough for SA to request Pakistans support.

And since Pakistan is both a nuclear power, and rejects No-First Use policy, well... An existential threat to their ally would obligate nuclear retaliation should SA request their aid.

Once that nuclear line is crossed though Trump would promptly send off some of our own just to brag about how bigly our nukes are compared to the Pakistanis.

[OC375]

2. We are Rome

Bloodsport

[ananda]

6. As far as sports goes, we've been Rome for a long time.

When sports was more just sports, I liked it.

But over the years it changed, and I gave up
wathcing it.

[Hugin]

3. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists needs to update the doomsday clock...

As of January 27th of 2026 it stood at 89 seconds to midnight.

[usonian]

5. I am concerned that it's 2 real time weeks.

About a microsecond on the BAS clock.

He's raving mad. He'll need some adult in the Praetorian Guard to deal appropriately with "The Greatest Man in the World"

By James Thurber.

https://loa-shared.s3.amazonaws.com/static/pdf/Thurber_Greatest_Man.pdf

Charles K. L. Brand, secretary to the Mayor of New York City, happened to be standing nearest Smurch ... Brand, a tall, powerfully built man, once a tackle at Rutgers, stepped forward, seized the greatest man in the world by his left shoulder and the seat of his pants, and pushed him out the window.

"My God, he's fallen out the window!" cried a quick-witted editor.

[ananda]

8. Boy that mancould write.

I've always liked Thurber.. I taught
The Night the Ghost Got In.

Anyhow, one of my family names is
in the story you posted.

I also think VD Jance fits thst story.

[usonian]

9. I read The Thurber Carnival long ago.

Great fun. Smurch!

[in2herbs]

4. I read that the Polymarket does not allow bets to be placed when the lives of people are at risk. I'd say

a nuclear detonation would qualify that to be taken down.