The Pendulum is About to Swing

[kentuck]

When the polls for Donald Trump go under 40%, the Republicans in the House and Senate will miraculously awaken. For the first time, they will feel politically threatened by defeat.

It is then that they will choose their own survival over the survival of their Leader.

Todays polls show Trump at 42% approval. With Independents, he was somewhere near 27%. And the polls continue to go down.

The American people have been assaulted by Trump and the Republicans in Congress. People's lives have been threatened by the abdication of the Republicans and their failure to uphold their oaths to the Constitution. Veterans have been unable to get help. Old folks have lived in anxiety, not knowing if they will get their Social Security checks. It is criminal what they have done.

But the pendulum is swinging.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Not to mention, their money will dry up.

Why bribe Republicans in both Houses when their votes aren't needed?

[H2O Man]

2. Recommended.

I agree 100%

[Hassin Bin Sober]

3. Or they double/triple down and get more fascist.

50/50 it goes either way.

[AZLD4Candidate]

27. In 2008, the country rejected their conservative agenda ith Obama's election

the GOP response: become even more conservative.

[ToxMarz]

29. Yeah, everything they do that doesn't work they believe

the problem isn't what they did. It's that they didn't do it ENOUGH. Next time, they just do it harder because they have to prove they weren't wrong the first time.

[GB_RN]

32. Reminds Me Of This Quote From A Favorite Sci-Fi Book

“We’re about to run our heads against the same unyielding barrier, and once again, the brass seem to have concluded that our approach isn’t working because we’re not running at the wall fast enough.”

Kloos, M., (2014). Lines of Departure. 47 North.

[regnaD kciN]

4. They'll only turn on him...

…if they really think there are going to be (honest) elections in 2026.

[usonian]

5. It's all about drag. (Not what you're thinking)

Drag them into office or drag them out.

Pitchforks are at the ready, probably enough already to cause the 'swing" voters, whoever the hell they are, to flip seats, if not primaries.

Back in beantown,



A depiction of the 1774 tarring and feathering of loyalist John Malcom in the lead-up to the American Revolution.

On a bitterly cold night in Boston in 1774, a crowd of angry Bostonians gathered around the pitiful figure of John Malcom, a 50-year-old customs agent and loyalist to the British Crown. They stripped him, poured hot tar and feathers over him, paraded him through town, and forced him to drink tea until he vomited.

This was one of the most infamous moments of someone being tarred and feathered in the days leading up to the American Revolution. But it was hardly unique. More than 70 loyalists suffered a similar fate.

Diet Cokes?

https://allthatsinteresting.com/tar-and-feather

Then again ...

[Self Esteem]

6. Why do you think this?

Trump's approval is no worse than it was eight years ago and Republicans didn't abandon him. Hell, most Republicans didn't abandon him a bit over four years ago after January 6th. No offense, but this feels like cope - Republicans aren't going to abandon Trump.

[kentuck]

9. I think some of us may feel it in our old bones.

Trump doesn't have to protect them if he is not on the ballot. They know that. How many rallies has he had since he began this regime for the second time?

He doesn't need them anymore.

He can concentrate on making as much money, as he feels is necessary, for his lifestyle. He likes to play golf with his Saudi friends. They have money.

He really doesn't have the time to be President. It's sort of like, "I thought you were driving"?

But there are two things that he follows very closely. The stock market. And the polls.

[paleotn]

12. He's never polled this badly....

Hell, I don't think anyone's polled this badly in modern times. He's underwater in virtually all demographic. And the full impact of his craziness hasn't even hit most Americans yet.

[Self Esteem]

22. He absolutely has polled this badly before.

And it's nowhere near as close as Bush's approval was in 2008 (where he dipped into the 20s).

Moreover, his approval is higher today on average than Biden's was when he left office.

Trump's current approval rating right now is 45.8%.

At this point in 2017, Trump's approval was 42%.

Trump's average approval when he left office in 2021 was 41.1%.

Biden's average approval when he left office was 39%.

[Doodley]

34. Trump's final 2021 polls put him at an average of 34%

[paleotn]

38. That is true.

But look at him compared to everyone since Ike after 100 days.

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-job-approval-ratings

To Biden and Obama's second term. He's even lower than he was in 2017.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

[Self Esteem]

41. His average today is still higher than it was in 2017.

He was more unpopular overall in average in his first term at this point.

You also fail to account for one thing: the Democratic Party right now is more unpopular than both Trump and the Republicans.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-sizeable-chunk-americans-think-neither-party-fights-people-rcna202884

That is going to need to change, and Trump's approval will need to drop much more, for Republicans to even think about possibly turning on him.

[kentuck]

42. " the Democratic Party right now is more unpopular than both Trump and the Republicans."

Perhaps the pendulum will swing against both Parties? Perhaps there is a new order that is waiting? In my opinion, we cannot assume that if the pendulum swings against the present Republican Party that it will automatically swing toward the Democratic Party, as it is at present.

The one that adapts to the change will be the one that survives.

[Self Esteem]

43. I said as much a couple months ago...

I can't find the post but I said the Democrats are facing extinction if they don't figure it out. I could absolutely see a left-wing party rising up and running against Democrats in congressional and senate races.

The thing with Republicans is that they're currently united around Trump, so that's less likely to happen at this point.

When Trump is out of the picture, though? It's possible too. But not until he's gone and I think Republicans know this. Trump has a way to galvanize the electorate, even when he's unpopular (look at 2020 - Trump was extremely unpopular and came within a hair of beating Biden) and Republicans aren't about to test that at this point.

Right now, though? The Democrats lack a leader to rally behind and that makes keeping the factions united more difficult.

[writerJT]

16. It reminds me of

“The walls are closing in on him” from 2016.

And also from 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024…

The guy gets away with everything. Waiting for something bad to happen to him politically is a fool’s errand. The cult is dedicated. Trumpism will have to be defeated at the ballot box starting in 2026.

[Self Esteem]

24. The only thing that might tank Trump is if the economy does go into a deep, deep recession.

So far the economy has toyed with recession but hasn't plunged into it just yet.

We'll see.

[TearsOfDaClowned]

52. The Pendulum Analogy with Trump is the Pits!

Amen... he's one of "those guys who would never get a scratch(not even on his ear) here" from apocalypse now! There is no pendulum..the only WORSE approval ratings are for DEMOCRATS! There is no 'driving voters back into your arms' that can happen. The stock market can stabilize...egg prices go down...maybe arresting judges in a country with such a large prison industry becomes chum to his supporters... He may not go higher but maybe he just rides 43% and dares US to be complacent and not do what WE need to do to outcompete weaponized disinfo & the gaggle of billionaires backing him.

[kentuck]

54. I would agree that Democrats need to make some big changes...

Not just around the edges.

I don't know what changes Democrats need to make but we need new leaders, to begin with.

Neither Party is in the greatest of shape at this time.

[markodochartaigh]

17. The approval rate among Republicans for Trump's actions

has consistently been about 80%. Immediately after the failed coup attempt his approval among Republicans dropped to the upper 40's. I think that his approval dropped not because of the attempted coup, but because the coup failed. In a couple of weeks when it became apparent that Trump was not going to face any consequences his approval rate among Republicans rose to about 80% again. About 20% of Republicans, the corporate Republicans, disdain Trump because of his buffoonery or lack of class but they are OK with authoritarianism if that is what is necessary to keep them in power. As the economy spirals downward and the employer of last resort, the government, is constrained in hiring I think a lot of the clueless apathetic middle will look for a Strong Leader with quick answers and Trump's popularity will grow.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. Republicans still approve of Trump. That's all they need.

Would you say things in this country today are headed:

In the right direction:
GOP: 79%
Dems: 4%
Indies: 26%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/25/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html

As long as they keep listening to Fox, etc. they will “still believe.” MAGA thugs will keep on doing their “death threats.”

[kentuck]

45. They are not good for this country, we should all agree.

In my opinion.

They are threatening, and some are dangerous. We should not want a country like that. That seems to be the sticking point?

(However, with only 4 or 5 votes from Republicans in the House and the Senate, it could change the entire course of this nation, if they worked in a bi-partisan way with the Democrats to take care of our people and save our country.)

[Self Esteem]

47. Absolutely. I think people are expecting a Bush-like falloff but there's no evidence of this.

Even after 1/6, Trump's approval barely got below where Biden's was for a good chunk of 2024.

The best we can hope for is that Trump drops into the 30s and Democrats win indies in November, 2026, which will hopefully give us something to stop Trump. But he is not going to see a collapse in support from Republicans. They have stuck with him through thick and thin and he seems actually more popular with the base than he did at this point in 2017.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

48. These people are either in a cult or Trump is the anti-Christ.

He has way too much luck. Bankrupt, 34 felonies, taped talking about how he grabs women’s pussies, shellacks Biden in a debate, is shot at twice, missed narrowly, shrugs it off and turns it into a political photo opp. makes evangelicals think he’s the “second coming.”

[spanone]

7. K&R

[Dan]

8. But what IMO is more important is

That we must break the back of the MAGA mindset. Make them suffer and feel the hurt from their loyalty to Trump over their loyalty to the nation.

[TheRickles]

10. It's hard to convert cult members (MAGAts). Better to focus on the 40% of voters who didn't turn out last time.

Motivate them to vote, and it'll be a blue wave.

[Cheezoholic]

13. Rec this 10k times! 90 million sat on their ass in 24. Get 10% of them into the booth and we're golden

even if some of them are MAGAts. Absolutely correct that thats where we need to fish. I really don't get spending a billion dollars on 7or 8 swing counties. It's insane!

[paleotn]

14. Who said anything about converting?

Intense suffering is good enough for me.

There should be a very serious price to pay for helping blow up the Republic. Whether or not they come to their senses due to that is irrelevant.

[Dan]

21. Curious, you might have more exposure to them than I

But with enough pain, they still won’t change?

[TheRickles]

37. Yes, with enough pain they might change, but I was thinking about bang for the buck.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

50. Sometimes people cling to things even more when they lose things.

People don’t want to admit when they are wrong - especially if they have paid dearly for it. Cognitive Dissonance: is the mental discomfort that arises when a person's cognitions (thoughts, beliefs, attitudes, values) are inconsistent with each other or with their actions.
They try to reduce this discomfort by:

Changing their beliefs OR

Justifying their actions: They might rationalize their behavior by finding reasons to support it, says Psychology Today.

Ignoring or rejecting conflicting information: They might choose to avoid information that contradicts their beliefs.

Since we know that a lot of these people are cruel, they get off on the pain being put upon people they fear or envy (intellectuals, college-educated at a “good college”) Many are bullies and ignorant. They always have Fox News to turn on to “soothe them” and make them believe. The male MAGAT bully is NOT going to admit they are wrong. They look at Democrats and liberals and think they are women or “not manly.”

[CaptainTruth]

11. Yes, you're right, as it has swung for all of political history.

[Beachnutt]

15. When the store shelves go bare

trucks and trains stop rolling, ships sit idle, then the pendulum will swing.

[dchill]

18. But NEVER do anything for the country...

...or its people.

[FirstLight]

19. Less than 2weeks from now

Remember Walmart, Costco and some other CEOs were warning him that the shelves will be empty in 2 weeks well that was one week ago... how long will it take for the other shoe to drop?

I don't know but I'm ready for some fucking winning about now. This is got to stop! On all fronts!

[DET]

20. God, I Hope So

My only concern is that the MAGATs are just starting to feel the pain, which means that a relatively small percentage have left the cult. I bet a large number of these ignorant people don’t even realize that they stand to lose their food stamps, housing assistance, Medicaid, Social Security, savings, etc. under Trump. If we dump Trump before they dump Trump, then we may have a civil war instead of a revolution. We could end up with Good News - Trump is gone; bad news - the MAGATs aren’t and they’re pissed.

[xuplate]

23. I hope you're right.

[OverBurn]

25. The only I can think of is how the hell is it 42%. The country is brain dead.

[SSJVegeta]

26. They are trying to figure out if their survival rests on honoring their constituents

Or honoring trump. They are leaning towards Trump

[wcmagumba]

28. I went to my local small town KS grocery today and the shelves seemed stocked but a few choices were missing...

I hope this is not a fore warning of worse things to come....

[Strelnikov_]

33. It is

The pipeline from Chy-na is slowing down.

Consumer goods are not the problem, though. It’s all the parts here, components there, that go into a finished product.

95 % of a product is not marketable.

Plants in the US will be laying off.

[ZDU]

30. A Requiem for MAGA

I pray

[Bleacher Creature]

31. Agree with the argument but not the number.

I don't think 40% is enough. He was in the high 30s for a lot of his first term and they stayed loyal. It wasn't until 1/6 that he fell below 35% and the worm finally turned a little.

I do think there's a point when Republicans finally turn on him, but it's not 40%.

[Wounded Bear]

35. Your keyboard to god's monitor...nt

[Mountainguy]

36. You're right to a point....

but the numbers are not.

Trump is going to have to get a lot lower than 40% before Republicans in congress turn on him en masse.

Each member is only worried about the voters in their own district/state. Most of them are in electorates that skew much more right than the general US. So in an environment where Trump is at, say 37% approval he is probably somewhere in the upper 70's of maybe a little better with Republicans. With those numbers, most republicans are going to still believe that their key to retaining their own seats is to stay with Trump.

I think for Republicans in congress to actually turn on Trump and work with Democrats to remove him.....he'd have to be sub 20% approval.

[Ace Rothstein]

39. Wake me up when this actually happens.

DU has predicted the downfall of Trump hundreds of times yet he's still here.

[Emile]

40. Never underestimate the power of the Magic R.

People shoot themselves in the foot at the voting booth just to entertain the wealthy.

[pat_k]

46. Hope so, but what "safe seats" fear is being primaried...

...and even at 32% he holds a majority of Republicans. What is critical is that a 47 opposition Independent or Democrat challenges every single one of those "safe" seats, and gets our backing. Win or lose that's the only way we make inroads against the demented reactionaries that have dominated in places the Democrats have written off.

[Morbius]

49. The polls may not matter.

Everyone seems to be assuming we're going to have elections next year, which is not certain. It is also uncertain that those elections, should they occur, will be fair. It's fair to say that even if we do have elections which are counted fairly and run honestly that voting will be made more difficult, because voting is always being made more difficult.

Let's worry about supporting the rule of law; if polls will matter, then being on the right side of history should win the public over.

[yellow dahlia]

51. It's a crime spree.

One of my protest signs is: This isn't efficiency - it's a crime spree.

[kentuck]

53. It is that, for sure.

I guess some people like to be robbed?

[thought crime]

55. The Darkest Hour is always just before the Dawn.

But how dark will it get?

[Morbius]

56. That's not true.

It gets lighter just before dawn. It's darkest when the storm is about to strike.

Just saying, here.

[Sneederbunk]

57. The pendulum does not swing until

the donors say it swings.

[Jack Valentino]

58. It's swinging already, but all those MAGGOT Republicans have to win a maggot primary,

before they have to worry about a general election-- that's been a big part of the problem...


so I don't see them trying to do anything about Trump, UNLESS and UNTIL
their Republican constituents overwhelm them with complaints about him---
(complaints that these MAGGOT politicians can't claim are just "Soros paid protesters"
which at least one has already claimed)

and I don't see that happening, either.... but it is possible.