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Xolodno

(6,662 posts)
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:20 PM 19 hrs ago

Personally, I think we might be just teetering on the edge of a Recession.

And there will be buyers remorse. It may not happen next year, possibly much later. Hear me out:

1. There have been a lot of layoffs this year as well as bankruptcies. Sure, you can say "But job growth has kept continuing!". That doesn't tell the whole story. If you get a job at 50k but were making 100k before, that's still a big hit. And it won't show in the economic indicators right away, but eventually will. Company I left during the "great resignation" a year later laid off 2k+ people (dodged a bullet), many are still looking for work, some have created their own companies (which counts as job creation).

2. Inflation has forced a lot of people to cut back and prices have yet to come back to normal. So people are using debt as a way to pay for things, all the while, still making sacrifices. Amazon made some employee cuts not too long ago and I think more are coming. That hints to me that consumption might be going down.

3. Wages haven't moved up enough, hence with the recent strikes and almost strikes. The almost railroad strike for example still didn't address a lot and the workers had a gun to their head to return to work.

So I think we will eventually find out once all the voting is in, a lot of people simply didn't bother or lodged a protest vote. Granted, it doesn't make sense, but people do irrational things when emotional. We can say the economy is roaring non stop based on some economic indicators, but it was also roaring before the real estate bubble and boom, it happened, house of cards came falling down.

Side note, I don't think we should be too hard on ourselves. Remember that bastard was campaigning the minute he left the Whitehouse, while Harris had roughly three months and did not have enough time, research, develop a message different from Biden, distinguish herself, etc. In a way, it wasn't fair to her to be dropped into this so late in the game.

Nor did it help that Biden, according to the media, was giving blanket aid to Israel as well as the Ukraine war (which was initially pushed as being a quick one, but turned to be a lot longer anyone expected), while people were seeing thier food bills rise (revolutions have started over this).

The GOP I think also knows a reccession might be on the horizon. Which is why they fought tooth and nail to kill Student Loan forgiveness/reform. That could have put more money back into consumption and staved off layoffs, bankruptcies, etc. and pushed off discontent. Instead, that money goes to invisible banks. Leave it to them to commit economic sabotage of your average US worker.

So the party needs to regroup, study and work hard to figure out how to reach out to Joe and Jane Voter. Particularly during a recession, depending when it happens, the GOP may slowly get us out of it, but it won't be very good as I have no faith in their abilities.

46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Personally, I think we might be just teetering on the edge of a Recession. (Original Post) Xolodno 19 hrs ago OP
We are about 60-90 days away from it being obvious. roamer65 19 hrs ago #1
Forgot to mention... Xolodno 19 hrs ago #6
That was an awful recession...1981-82. roamer65 18 hrs ago #14
The entirety of this past election can be surmised as: Facts v Emotion EarthFirst 19 hrs ago #2
Good SoCalDavidS 19 hrs ago #3
I'd like to keep my house, thank you lame54 19 hrs ago #5
Well, I Wanted To Keep My Country SoCalDavidS 19 hrs ago #8
Same here. N/t gay texan 19 hrs ago #10
US consumers will be at least cautious coming into the festive season.............. Lovie777 19 hrs ago #4
I Have Made The Decision To Severly Limit My Spending Beginning In 2025 SoCalDavidS 19 hrs ago #9
I would start it sooner. roamer65 18 hrs ago #17
I Feel The Need To Support President Biden's Economy SoCalDavidS 18 hrs ago #21
Ur call. roamer65 17 hrs ago #30
Are You Saying That One Should Get A Head Start On Being Prepared? SoCalDavidS 17 hrs ago #33
Debt was the big one I was thinking. roamer65 17 hrs ago #35
I Feel Like Stocks Could Soar In The Short Term SoCalDavidS 16 hrs ago #37
Problem is the timing. roamer65 16 hrs ago #40
I've Been Extremely Wary Of Crypto From The Get Go SoCalDavidS 16 hrs ago #45
Right now I'm in money market fund, CDs, UST bond fund and gold. roamer65 16 hrs ago #46
Yeah, most likely. When is the last time a Republican administration didn't have a recession? W_HAMILTON 19 hrs ago #7
not a problem. all those former immigrant jobs can be filled by out of work trumpers nt msongs 19 hrs ago #11
From a purely partisian standpoint....... Arthur_Frain 18 hrs ago #12
An old family friend has owned a local garden center/farmers market for several decades happybird 18 hrs ago #13
Fun fact. roamer65 18 hrs ago #15
I think the billionaires will throw a few bones to us progues maxrandb 18 hrs ago #16
Like Lone Skum, moving his canvassers in the backs of U-Haul box trucks? hatrack 18 hrs ago #20
Recession John2028 18 hrs ago #18
TRUMPCESSION. roamer65 17 hrs ago #36
With our payment in either December or January, our mortgage goes away . . . hatrack 18 hrs ago #19
Bravo! SoCalDavidS 18 hrs ago #22
One of the few "sure things" in personal finance - killing interest-bearing debt . . . hatrack 18 hrs ago #23
Speaking Of Interest Bearing Debt.... SoCalDavidS 18 hrs ago #25
Unless you own gold. roamer65 16 hrs ago #38
And I Do SoCalDavidS 16 hrs ago #44
Hoover deported Latinos and enacted tariffs Emile 18 hrs ago #24
Hoover 2.0 roamer65 16 hrs ago #39
I don't have faith JustAnotherGen 18 hrs ago #26
Making my big purchases right now C_U_L8R 18 hrs ago #27
Historically, the economy fared worse under Republican administrations surfered 18 hrs ago #28
According to The Economist we are spending 6% of our budget servicing the debt. That's high for peacetime. OrlandoDem2 17 hrs ago #29
When the recession is in full swing, I read deficit projections are as high as 10 percent of GDP. roamer65 16 hrs ago #41
Recessions are cyclical... we've been DUE for one for quite a while... WarGamer 17 hrs ago #31
And I also think by this time next year we will be in the throes of an Avian Flu pandemic Bookreadingliberal53 17 hrs ago #32
that would suck... WarGamer 17 hrs ago #34
Fuck. roamer65 16 hrs ago #42
That's very true and we are over due for one. Xolodno 16 hrs ago #43

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
1. We are about 60-90 days away from it being obvious.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:24 PM
19 hrs ago

The US Treasuries yield curve is now almost uninverted. Bull steepening it is called and is seen just before recessions when the Federal Reserve starts cutting short term interest rates.

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

Xolodno

(6,662 posts)
6. Forgot to mention...
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:29 PM
19 hrs ago

...I think the Fed kept the rates high a little bit too long. Volkner in the 80's practically pulled the plug on the money making presses and purposely caused a recession. But unfortunately, that's what needs to happen. Very few tools to manage a capitalist system, you have to let things take its course.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
14. That was an awful recession...1981-82.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:49 PM
18 hrs ago

Deep, deep recession without the stimulus that the Great Recession received.

Raygun increased the weeks needed for UI and thus screwed my dad out of it.

I was in HS then and it left an indelible impression on me and how I invest.

EarthFirst

(3,100 posts)
2. The entirety of this past election can be surmised as: Facts v Emotion
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:24 PM
19 hrs ago

That’s where the chips ultimately landed.

Unfortunately for those of us rooted in reality we will be taking on a tremendous amount of undue hardships from the majority who voted based on emotion…

Buckle up.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
3. Good
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:26 PM
19 hrs ago

I do feel bad for those on our side who voted for the Sane candidate, but them's the breaks.

We deserve far worse than a recession. We deserve a depression. We deserve an economy that causes the media to compare it to 1930 America. Maybe a few of the IDIOTS on the other side will reminisce about how eggs were $3.00 a dozen under Biden.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
8. Well, I Wanted To Keep My Country
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:32 PM
19 hrs ago

I hope you do, and everything may be just fine, but the chances of it not just increased exponentially.

People took an economy that is in Amazing shape right now, and decided to roll the dice. If it comes up snake eyes, it's not our fault, and you can blame the pieces of shit who voted for him.

Lovie777

(14,794 posts)
4. US consumers will be at least cautious coming into the festive season..............
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:27 PM
19 hrs ago

Thanksgiving and Xmas, majority realizes we may be fucked in 2025.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
9. I Have Made The Decision To Severly Limit My Spending Beginning In 2025
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:35 PM
19 hrs ago

SIGNIFICANT cutback in discretionary spending.

Life gives lemons, and I intend to make lemonade by saving as much money as possible. I may take a vacation, but I may do so in Europe. Avoid pumping money into this country's economy as much as possible.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
33. Are You Saying That One Should Get A Head Start On Being Prepared?
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:32 PM
17 hrs ago

I do feel like I am in a somewhat comfortable financial position currently. I have savings, retirement accounts and no debt. Own my residence. I have no extravagant spending on the horizon, so my discretionary spending will be limited.

Are you of the belief that there is the very real possibility of the shit hitting the fan, and possibly sooner rather than later, once the SOB takes office? I do feel like that's in the cards, but also that it will take time to work its way into the economy. These things usually do.

Just curious as to your thoughts about what's in store.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
35. Debt was the big one I was thinking.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:39 PM
17 hrs ago

Most people nowadays have high interest debt in some form, like credit cards.

Just make sure any money in banks, like savings accounts or CD’s is under the FDIC limit of $250k.

We are similar in situation, financially speaking.

Stocks versus bonds, etc, etc is really ur call. I’m not in stocks at all right now.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
37. I Feel Like Stocks Could Soar In The Short Term
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:45 PM
16 hrs ago

Especially when he promises to eliminate the Corporation Tax. Of course, once the see the shit is about to hit the fan, they'll all cash out, leaving the peon investors holding the empty bags.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
40. Problem is the timing.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:49 PM
16 hrs ago

If I were in stocks them right now, after a 10 pct correction, I would dump them.

Just my opinion and take it as such.

What worries me right now is a possible liquidity crisis. Federal Reserve QT and Chinese sale of USTs to raise dollars for their stimulus packages. It’s draining too many dollars out of the system.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
45. I've Been Extremely Wary Of Crypto From The Get Go
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 10:12 PM
16 hrs ago

But the Fascists appear to be promoting it, and going all in. My only hesitation is that they're trying to scam people out of their money, but they also pushed Gold, which is at an all time high. Perhaps it's something to look into, albeit very cautiously, and maybe pull out profits along the way to recover the initial investment.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
46. Right now I'm in money market fund, CDs, UST bond fund and gold.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 10:16 PM
16 hrs ago

I’m just sitting back with very little change to the mix.

Gold was bought mostly sub $2K.

W_HAMILTON

(8,446 posts)
7. Yeah, most likely. When is the last time a Republican administration didn't have a recession?
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:30 PM
19 hrs ago

It's basically been a cycle of Republicans fuck shit up and we end up in a recession (damn near a depression the last two Republican administrations!) --> Democrats come in and fix it --> Republicans run and win on saying Democrats took too long to fix it or the fix wasn't good enough --> Republicans take credit for and cash out on the Democrats' good economy --> cycle begins anew.

Arthur_Frain

(2,178 posts)
12. From a purely partisian standpoint.......
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:45 PM
18 hrs ago

All of my politically aware life, democratic regimes have been cleaning up republican train wrecks. Clinton to Bush I "Its the economy, stupid".

Trumps successful economy was the inheritance of Obama's measured cleanup of the shrub's sub prime lending debacle. Talk about being handed a sackful of shit! But here comes Trump again, riding in on the coattails of a democratic administration that pulled their fat out of the fire and back into the frying pan.

But honest to God I don't know where we go from here. These are the most scorched earth people I know.

happybird

(5,088 posts)
13. An old family friend has owned a local garden center/farmers market for several decades
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:47 PM
18 hrs ago

When I was looking for work this past Spring I stopped by the shop to talk to him, figuring I’d be a shoo-in for a part time job, not only because he’s an old family friend with whom we are on great terms, and my former ball coach, but also because I have experience in that particular industry.

He apologized but had to turn me down. Sales were 1/3 less than they had been last year. That’s highly unusual in this wealthy suburban area, and that is a huge drop. He was only keeping on two workers and had to turn down several others who wanted to return for the busy season. I could tell he was worried.

Anecdotal, I know. But that was my first sign the economy is not as rosy as we’ve been led to believe. The recession will be here soon.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
15. Fun fact.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:54 PM
18 hrs ago

Most recessions and depressions begin either the year following or during an election year.

1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1908, 1929, 1973, 1981, 2001, 2008 and 2020 to name a few.

2025 will soon be on that list.

maxrandb

(15,830 posts)
16. I think the billionaires will throw a few bones to us progues
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:00 PM
18 hrs ago

A few bucks to help ensure that the guy who will give them trillions can claim success is a small price to pay.

It will be a mirage, but the MSM will call it an "economic miracle".

And don't forget, debt is only debt when a Dem is president.

hatrack

(60,701 posts)
19. With our payment in either December or January, our mortgage goes away . . .
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:06 PM
18 hrs ago

We've been aggressive about it for the better part of a decade, but decided to get medieval on its ass in the last year. Will be relieved beyond words to have it gone , especially right now.

hatrack

(60,701 posts)
23. One of the few "sure things" in personal finance - killing interest-bearing debt . . .
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:12 PM
18 hrs ago

Congratulations yourself!

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
25. Speaking Of Interest Bearing Debt....
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:25 PM
18 hrs ago

WE still are subject to Interest Bearing Debt. The National Debt is astronomical, and increasing every day.

And if you think it's bad now, hold my beer. I fully expect More Tax Cuts, on top of the ones already given during his 1st term. Along with cuts to social program spending, it will go into the National Debt.

We are so Fucked, it's beyond comprehension.

SoCalDavidS

(10,296 posts)
44. And I Do
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 10:07 PM
16 hrs ago

I bought under "W," and again under "T." Perhaps it's time to accrue some more, despite the high current price.

Honestly, I expected that it would be much higher by now, but I was of the belief back in the 2000's, that debt would always skyrocket under a repub administration. It appears to be a constant.

Emile

(29,228 posts)
24. Hoover deported Latinos and enacted tariffs
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:14 PM
18 hrs ago

and the result was the Great Depression.

Trump is copying Hoover to a tee.

C_U_L8R

(45,622 posts)
27. Making my big purchases right now
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:30 PM
18 hrs ago

...while the Biden economy is still hot and the Trump tariffs haven't kicked in.
Then four years of austerity. Screw that guy.

OrlandoDem2

(2,257 posts)
29. According to The Economist we are spending 6% of our budget servicing the debt. That's high for peacetime.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 08:47 PM
17 hrs ago

In 10 years Social Security will be broke and pressure is about to ramp up to fix it. God help us.

Recessions are part time of the business cycle. I think we may be due. If it’s deep I hope it wipes out the GOP in 2026.

roamer65

(37,080 posts)
41. When the recession is in full swing, I read deficit projections are as high as 10 percent of GDP.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:57 PM
16 hrs ago

That is currency crisis territory.

32. And I also think by this time next year we will be in the throes of an Avian Flu pandemic
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 09:30 PM
17 hrs ago

It jumped to pigs last month.

Xolodno

(6,662 posts)
43. That's very true and we are over due for one.
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 10:04 PM
16 hrs ago

And the one during COVID is just an exception that probably should be ignored in the average cycle. After inflation, a recession almost always happens. I'm wondering if Biden hired way too many "yes men" who said we will have a soft landing and started to believe their own bullshit and thus, ill advising him. And thus, "if we assume", starting to see some early effects that were not picked up. Won't know until later.

Leadership, both in government and the corporate world (and I've seen a lot of it in the corporate world) can be lied to by their trusted advisors who only want to report good news so they look good.

One can be pro-active and effect timing and severity of a recession, can't stop it from happening however. It's going to happen. A better question would be, who do you prefer to handle a recession, Kamala or Trump?

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