General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPersonally, I think we might be just teetering on the edge of a Recession.
And there will be buyers remorse. It may not happen next year, possibly much later. Hear me out:
1. There have been a lot of layoffs this year as well as bankruptcies. Sure, you can say "But job growth has kept continuing!". That doesn't tell the whole story. If you get a job at 50k but were making 100k before, that's still a big hit. And it won't show in the economic indicators right away, but eventually will. Company I left during the "great resignation" a year later laid off 2k+ people (dodged a bullet), many are still looking for work, some have created their own companies (which counts as job creation).
2. Inflation has forced a lot of people to cut back and prices have yet to come back to normal. So people are using debt as a way to pay for things, all the while, still making sacrifices. Amazon made some employee cuts not too long ago and I think more are coming. That hints to me that consumption might be going down.
3. Wages haven't moved up enough, hence with the recent strikes and almost strikes. The almost railroad strike for example still didn't address a lot and the workers had a gun to their head to return to work.
So I think we will eventually find out once all the voting is in, a lot of people simply didn't bother or lodged a protest vote. Granted, it doesn't make sense, but people do irrational things when emotional. We can say the economy is roaring non stop based on some economic indicators, but it was also roaring before the real estate bubble and boom, it happened, house of cards came falling down.
Side note, I don't think we should be too hard on ourselves. Remember that bastard was campaigning the minute he left the Whitehouse, while Harris had roughly three months and did not have enough time, research, develop a message different from Biden, distinguish herself, etc. In a way, it wasn't fair to her to be dropped into this so late in the game.
Nor did it help that Biden, according to the media, was giving blanket aid to Israel as well as the Ukraine war (which was initially pushed as being a quick one, but turned to be a lot longer anyone expected), while people were seeing thier food bills rise (revolutions have started over this).
The GOP I think also knows a reccession might be on the horizon. Which is why they fought tooth and nail to kill Student Loan forgiveness/reform. That could have put more money back into consumption and staved off layoffs, bankruptcies, etc. and pushed off discontent. Instead, that money goes to invisible banks. Leave it to them to commit economic sabotage of your average US worker.
So the party needs to regroup, study and work hard to figure out how to reach out to Joe and Jane Voter. Particularly during a recession, depending when it happens, the GOP may slowly get us out of it, but it won't be very good as I have no faith in their abilities.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)The US Treasuries yield curve is now almost uninverted. Bull steepening it is called and is seen just before recessions when the Federal Reserve starts cutting short term interest rates.
https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php
Xolodno
(6,662 posts)...I think the Fed kept the rates high a little bit too long. Volkner in the 80's practically pulled the plug on the money making presses and purposely caused a recession. But unfortunately, that's what needs to happen. Very few tools to manage a capitalist system, you have to let things take its course.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Deep, deep recession without the stimulus that the Great Recession received.
Raygun increased the weeks needed for UI and thus screwed my dad out of it.
I was in HS then and it left an indelible impression on me and how I invest.
EarthFirst
(3,100 posts)Thats where the chips ultimately landed.
Unfortunately for those of us rooted in reality we will be taking on a tremendous amount of undue hardships from the majority who voted based on emotion
Buckle up.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)I do feel bad for those on our side who voted for the Sane candidate, but them's the breaks.
We deserve far worse than a recession. We deserve a depression. We deserve an economy that causes the media to compare it to 1930 America. Maybe a few of the IDIOTS on the other side will reminisce about how eggs were $3.00 a dozen under Biden.
lame54
(36,804 posts)SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)I hope you do, and everything may be just fine, but the chances of it not just increased exponentially.
People took an economy that is in Amazing shape right now, and decided to roll the dice. If it comes up snake eyes, it's not our fault, and you can blame the pieces of shit who voted for him.
gay texan
(2,833 posts)Lovie777
(14,794 posts)Thanksgiving and Xmas, majority realizes we may be fucked in 2025.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)SIGNIFICANT cutback in discretionary spending.
Life gives lemons, and I intend to make lemonade by saving as much money as possible. I may take a vacation, but I may do so in Europe. Avoid pumping money into this country's economy as much as possible.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Right away, TBH.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)It is his economy for another 2 1/2 months.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Good luck!
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)I do feel like I am in a somewhat comfortable financial position currently. I have savings, retirement accounts and no debt. Own my residence. I have no extravagant spending on the horizon, so my discretionary spending will be limited.
Are you of the belief that there is the very real possibility of the shit hitting the fan, and possibly sooner rather than later, once the SOB takes office? I do feel like that's in the cards, but also that it will take time to work its way into the economy. These things usually do.
Just curious as to your thoughts about what's in store.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Most people nowadays have high interest debt in some form, like credit cards.
Just make sure any money in banks, like savings accounts or CDs is under the FDIC limit of $250k.
We are similar in situation, financially speaking.
Stocks versus bonds, etc, etc is really ur call. Im not in stocks at all right now.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)Especially when he promises to eliminate the Corporation Tax. Of course, once the see the shit is about to hit the fan, they'll all cash out, leaving the peon investors holding the empty bags.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)If I were in stocks them right now, after a 10 pct correction, I would dump them.
Just my opinion and take it as such.
What worries me right now is a possible liquidity crisis. Federal Reserve QT and Chinese sale of USTs to raise dollars for their stimulus packages. Its draining too many dollars out of the system.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)But the Fascists appear to be promoting it, and going all in. My only hesitation is that they're trying to scam people out of their money, but they also pushed Gold, which is at an all time high. Perhaps it's something to look into, albeit very cautiously, and maybe pull out profits along the way to recover the initial investment.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Im just sitting back with very little change to the mix.
Gold was bought mostly sub $2K.
W_HAMILTON
(8,446 posts)It's basically been a cycle of Republicans fuck shit up and we end up in a recession (damn near a depression the last two Republican administrations!) --> Democrats come in and fix it --> Republicans run and win on saying Democrats took too long to fix it or the fix wasn't good enough --> Republicans take credit for and cash out on the Democrats' good economy --> cycle begins anew.
msongs
(70,086 posts)Arthur_Frain
(2,178 posts)All of my politically aware life, democratic regimes have been cleaning up republican train wrecks. Clinton to Bush I "Its the economy, stupid".
Trumps successful economy was the inheritance of Obama's measured cleanup of the shrub's sub prime lending debacle. Talk about being handed a sackful of shit! But here comes Trump again, riding in on the coattails of a democratic administration that pulled their fat out of the fire and back into the frying pan.
But honest to God I don't know where we go from here. These are the most scorched earth people I know.
happybird
(5,088 posts)When I was looking for work this past Spring I stopped by the shop to talk to him, figuring Id be a shoo-in for a part time job, not only because hes an old family friend with whom we are on great terms, and my former ball coach, but also because I have experience in that particular industry.
He apologized but had to turn me down. Sales were 1/3 less than they had been last year. Thats highly unusual in this wealthy suburban area, and that is a huge drop. He was only keeping on two workers and had to turn down several others who wanted to return for the busy season. I could tell he was worried.
Anecdotal, I know. But that was my first sign the economy is not as rosy as weve been led to believe. The recession will be here soon.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)Most recessions and depressions begin either the year following or during an election year.
1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1908, 1929, 1973, 1981, 2001, 2008 and 2020 to name a few.
2025 will soon be on that list.
maxrandb
(15,830 posts)A few bucks to help ensure that the guy who will give them trillions can claim success is a small price to pay.
It will be a mirage, but the MSM will call it an "economic miracle".
And don't forget, debt is only debt when a Dem is president.
hatrack
(60,701 posts)Probably not.
John2028
(13 posts)Trump will cause recession next year.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)hatrack
(60,701 posts)We've been aggressive about it for the better part of a decade, but decided to get medieval on its ass in the last year. Will be relieved beyond words to have it gone , especially right now.
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)I paid mine off about 7 years ago.
hatrack
(60,701 posts)Congratulations yourself!
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)WE still are subject to Interest Bearing Debt. The National Debt is astronomical, and increasing every day.
And if you think it's bad now, hold my beer. I fully expect More Tax Cuts, on top of the ones already given during his 1st term. Along with cuts to social program spending, it will go into the National Debt.
We are so Fucked, it's beyond comprehension.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)😉
SoCalDavidS
(10,296 posts)I bought under "W," and again under "T." Perhaps it's time to accrue some more, despite the high current price.
Honestly, I expected that it would be much higher by now, but I was of the belief back in the 2000's, that debt would always skyrocket under a repub administration. It appears to be a constant.
Emile
(29,228 posts)and the result was the Great Depression.
Trump is copying Hoover to a tee.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)JustAnotherGen
(33,337 posts)In Jane and Joe Voter having the will or ability to overthrow a dictator.
C_U_L8R
(45,622 posts)...while the Biden economy is still hot and the Trump tariffs haven't kicked in.
Then four years of austerity. Screw that guy.
surfered
(2,771 posts)OrlandoDem2
(2,257 posts)In 10 years Social Security will be broke and pressure is about to ramp up to fix it. God help us.
Recessions are part time of the business cycle. I think we may be due. If its deep I hope it wipes out the GOP in 2026.
roamer65
(37,080 posts)That is currency crisis territory.
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)Bookreadingliberal53
(55 posts)It jumped to pigs last month.
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)roamer65
(37,080 posts)Another Trumpdemic.
Xolodno
(6,662 posts)And the one during COVID is just an exception that probably should be ignored in the average cycle. After inflation, a recession almost always happens. I'm wondering if Biden hired way too many "yes men" who said we will have a soft landing and started to believe their own bullshit and thus, ill advising him. And thus, "if we assume", starting to see some early effects that were not picked up. Won't know until later.
Leadership, both in government and the corporate world (and I've seen a lot of it in the corporate world) can be lied to by their trusted advisors who only want to report good news so they look good.
One can be pro-active and effect timing and severity of a recession, can't stop it from happening however. It's going to happen. A better question would be, who do you prefer to handle a recession, Kamala or Trump?