Looks like we lost primarily due to low Democratic voter turnout

[Elessar Zappa]

Trump seemingly didn’t gain too many votes. It seems it’s always low turnout that dooms us. What more could we have done? By all accounts, Kamala had a great ground game.

[johnnyfins]

1. I dont believe this for a second

Mysteriously all of those Democratic voters just sat this one out? No way that passes the smell test.

It's curious that TSF lost in 2020 when there were SIGNIFICANTLY more Mail In voters. Looking back on that now, was he not able to game the system in 2020 because of that?

He was against mail in voting from the start until the end of his campaign.

[kirby]

7. Apathy...

In 2020 during Covid when people had nothing else to do and were sent ballots in the postal mail they filled them out. This time around it appears it was too much effort for about 14million people to seek out voting.

[Dumpy]

10. Agree

How does Harris get 13 million less votes than Biden? 3 million yeah, 5 million ok, but 13 million.

[PeaceWave]

12. Counting isn't done yet. Kamala will finish approximately 3 million shy of what Biden got...

The real shocker is that Trump will finish with approximately 11 million more votes than he got in 2020.

[Amishman]

15. And part of that math is losing independents

Last edited Thu Nov 7, 2024, 06:18 PM - Edit history (1)

Independents back Trump in 2016, Joe in 2020, and Trump again in 2024.

Wait until final totals are in to gauge overall turnout. There are millions of ballots uncounted.

But we can see we lost the support of indies which is disastrous. A vote flipped does twice the work of an additional vote turned out.

[johnnyfins]

41. I will wait for the final totals

And temper my posts accordingly. However, can you blame me for thinking that TSF and his band of scumbags were up to ratfuckery?

I want to trust her concession speech as a signal that everything was on the up and up and Dem analysis showed no such ratfuckery.

I also don't understand why Joe had to come out today to reinforce it. Kind of odd.

[Amishman]

46. I trust her experience as a lawyer

She has the experience and instincts, and knows the stakes.

If there was any doubt that the results were legit, I trust she would have raised hell.

[Dem4life1234]

23. I don't either

I don't know why people did the idea of votes being tampered with with these maniacs. They want to win at all costs .

[John1956PA]

2. The opposition had a powerful ground game in Western PA with ubiquitous signs.

I do not know what ground game the Dems had.

[oldmanlynn]

5. We heard that Harris had a massive ground game and trump had minimal

This does not square with the pre election data

[John1956PA]

6. I can speak with regard to Western PA, only.

Trump signs along the roads were numerous. Harris signs not so much. Trump's campaign bought time on the electronic billboard displays I saw. Nothing there from our side. A few weeks ago, an operate from the opposition came on DU to research what we Western Pennsylvania DUers though of all the Trump signs in Western PA. That operative was quickly removed from DU. Political signage is effective in Western Pennsylvania, especially when there is a plethora of it. I watched a worker loading a gang of Trump signs into the back of this car in preparation for distributing them. The opposition had a massive ground game in Western PA. If any DU knows anyone from our side who knows about whatever ground game we had here in Western PA, please have them contact me.

[M_o_o_n_dust]

17. Crazy

It's crazy to think there might be millions of people that can be swayed by the number of signs they see supporting a candidate.
The bandwagoner effect is real.
The Harris campaign raised more than 1 billion dollars knowing good and well PA would be a nail biter, even in the best scenarios. Do you think the campaign did a bad job there?

[La Coliniere]

48. The problem

is that the Republicans had an additional 7 billion in dark money to spend that fueled the endless parade of disgusting ads and billboards. Although, according to the official campaigns, Harris-Walz spent about 1.4 billion on the campaign ( mostly from small donors), the billionaire class gave more than 6 billion in dark money to the GOP. The Democrats could never ever compete with that amount of spending.

[kwolf68]

18. This poster is right

Trump shit was everywhere here and we also got badly beaten on commercials. Not sure HOW many times I heard the prison sex change commercial.

[yardwork]

19. That ad played zillions of times in NC.

[Tribetime]

22. They asked Plouffe about it and he said he wasn't worried

About that ad.....I thought that was surprising

[oldmanlynn]

3. How to square this with

Record voter turnout numbers
Dem enthusiasm 10 points higher

This does not make sense that dems didn’t turn out. We all knew the gravity of this election

[Zeitghost]

35. There was no record turnout

This keeps being repeated and it simply is not true. Fewer people came out to vote than they did in 2020. It's a simple math problem.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

50. Lower turnout was absolutely the case

in Fairfax County, VA, which is a deep-blue stronghold.

In 2020, there were 605,023 votes cast for President in Fairfax County - 419,043 for Biden/Harris, 168,401 for Trump/Pence, 8,014 for Jorgensen/Cohen, and the remainder were either other candidates, write-ins, or over/undervotes (not delineated in the results). Turnout was 79.4%

In 2024, there were 561,368 voters (43,655 fewer than in 2020) - 365,654 for Harris/Walz, 173,320 for Trump/Vance, 14,884 for various third-party candidates, and 4,802 write-ins. This year, they also showed overvotes (569) and undervotes (2,149).
Turnout was 68.35%.

So, there was lower turnout, Harris/Walz received 53,389 fewer votes than Biden/Harris, Trump/Vance received 4,919 more votes than Trump/Pence, and 22,404 that voted either third-party, write-in, or over/undervote, an increase of 4,825 from 2020.

So we ended up, in a deep-blue bastion, with an 11 percentage point (or a nearly 14%) reduction in turnout, fewer votes for the Democratic candidate, more votes for the Republican candidate, close to or more third-party write-ins, and 2,149 people who didn't even bother to vote in the Presidential race.

I can't explain why the excitement wasn't there, but it appears that it wasn't.

[delisen]

52. Needed to focus on the swing states

So the rest of the states may have been literally shortchanged.

[marybourg]

4. Anyone who didn't catch the enthusiasm

most Dems felt is just not a Dem, or is no longer a Dem. So the problem is we just didn’t appeal to enough voters.

We think we’re a big tent, but apparently we’re not big enough. Trump the billionaire is not seen as an “elite”, but we Dems are. And are resented for it.

[The Wandering Harper]

8. cops and billionaires are not who I want in my tent

but there they were on stage at the convention. I still came out to vote, but that convention killed my enthusiasm to do so

[marybourg]

13. There you are folks. One of our problems: we need to exclude cops and billionaires from our party.

[Irish_Dem]

9. Trump/Putin didn't even bother to cheat in a way that is believable.

They apparently want us to know they cheated and how.

[Chakaconcarne]

11. I'm wondering about the millions of fewer voters....

The fact the Trump campaign really put little effort in campaign-wise compared to our side, they spent less money...

Trump was acting like a complete maniac as if it wouldn't hurt him at all...

and they got the senate and almost the house....

They fucking cheated....

[Elessar Zappa]

16. No evidence for that.

If some legitimate evidence comes out, I’ll change my mind but I’m not going to be like them and scream “stolen election!” with no proof. Also neither Harris or the DNC has indicated that they believe anything untoward happened.

[Dem4life1234]

25. Of course they won't admit

They don't want to sound like CTs.

I do hate when people dismiss the idea of voter suppression. These people are capable of anything..

[brush]

33. Hope a great investigative reporter like Greg Palast gets on the case.

Last edited Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:41 PM - Edit history (1)

It might take awhile but IMO something's fishy with those numbers considering the massive number of door knocking canvassers we had working.

I too think there were rethug dirty tricks going on.

[Farmgirl1961]

42. I'm not sure he's getting on the case -- sure wish he would but...

You might want to read this:

https://www.gregpalast.com/heres-what-we-do-now/

[delisen]

14. Georgia. I got vote calls from Maryland

Also offers of ride to vote. Texts. Mailers. Home visit.
They did everything possible to get me to vote, which of course I did.

[Norbert]

20. Every time I went past our polling place it was crowded

and even more crowded than 2020. I can't believe voting was down this time around. Something smells.

[Zeitghost]

38. You do understand

That we had Covid to deal with in 2020 and that significantly drove up mail in balloting and reduced the number of in-person votes.

[groundloop]

21. Could it be that some men were apathetic to a female candidate?

We saw huge support for Kamala at her rallies, at Taylor Swift events, etc. But from what I've read she lost votes amongst Black and Hispanic men. It just kind of feels like some members of these groups of voters may not be ready to support a woman.

[NoRethugFriends]

28. Hispanic men yes black men no

[pstokely]

61. and maybe also apathetic about reproductive rights

they may not be incels, they just didn't see any reason to come out

[DET]

24. Not Buying It

Trump, Musk, and Putin stole the election. They cheated. Of course, this remains to be proven, after a thorough investigation - which I suspect has already started.

Primary evidence …
- Allegedly low Democratic turnout. For the most important election of our lifetimes. With women knowing that the Taliban is breathing down our backs. And with HUGE Democratic enthusiasm before the election. I don’t think so.
- More votes during Covid than in 2024. Not credible.
- Trump allegedly won all the swing states - and the popular vote. Not credible, at all.
- If I understand correctly (could be wrong), a couple of safe red states went blue, but purple swing states went red. Makes no sense.
- Trump allegedly won Pennsylvania, with a very large Puerto Rican population - after a massive insult to Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rican paper towel incident.
- DeJoy is still the postmaster. Hard to forget the trashing of the sorting machines. He seems to found a different way to makes votes disappear this time.
- A number of people are reporting anecdotally that they voted, but there is no record of their votes.
- Even some MAGAts are saying anecdotally that something smells fishy. Hardly proof, but interesting. Most of Trump’s base is mind blowingly stupid and gullible, but they generally view themselves as patriots. It’s hard to see millions of these people voting for a man who has declared that he wants to be a dictator.

More…
- First, we’re talking about Trump, Musk, and Putin - all world class liars and cheaters.
- They told us they were going to cheat. That’s Trump’s little ‘secret’, which he couldn’t help brag about.
- Trump said several times that he didn’t need our votes. Why do you think that is?
- Trump already tried to cheat during the 2020 election with the in-your-face trashing of the post office sorting machines. Plus, of course, his massive disinformation campaign.
- Elon Musk met with Putin before the election. Trump had multiple phone calls with Putin. They weren’t chatting about the weather.
- The voter rolls were aggressively purged before the election.
- Trump incessantly told his base that Democrats were going to steal the election. So the base is primed to accuse us if we investigate the votes.

Of course, Trump is too stupid to steal the election on his own. But he has a whole bunch of smart, if evil, people to help - plus the richest man in the world who has proven he is willing to bribe people for votes. We can’t turn our country over to Russia without a thorough investigation.

[Dem4life1234]

26. Thank you!

I don't know anyone who supports that piece of trash. It ain't that many MAGAts around!
.

[DET]

31. Uh huh...

You seem to think that a malignant, psychopathic, narcissistic child rapist and serial cheater of wives, workmen, and the American people wouldn’t think to stoop to cheating during this election - which he already did during the previous election.

Fine. You stand on pride. But I’m not willing to flush our country down the toilet without a fight.

[bdamomma]

40. I hope

they are investigating all this. Something is just not right. Again, I hope they keep investigating.

[bdamomma]

44. +10000

nt

[bdamomma]

51. Your post

is very thought provoking, I have read it again, and I wouldn't doubt it if you are on to something.

After the initial loss, shock, grief, and anger regarding the outcome of this election. You have to take a deep dive list all facts and analyze which your post has done. Was this a collaborative premediated steal of an election? And I do hope this is being investigated.

[DET]

58. What I Don't Understand...

…is why Democrats aren’t calling en masse for a recount and investigation. At the barest minimum, we all need to check to see if our votes were counted. There are increasing reports of missing ballots. We also need to contact our congresspeople and Senators and demand that they press for a recount and investigation. This is so stunningly obvious to me that it is amazing that it is not happening.

The Project 2025 people have been gloating about what they plan to do, which is awful.They clearly feel safe in doing so. I’d rather be embarrassed by a false alarm than lose our democracy to a bunch of psychopathic con artists and thieves.

[Scrivener7]

27. There are racist and sexist Democrats too.

[brush]

36. Oh, please. And you think these so-called racist and sexist Dems voted for trump?

That doesn't make much sense. And if that noise was true, seems they'd hold their nose and vote blue instead of for the white supremacist, child rapist, 34 time convicted criminal felon.

[Scrivener7]

47. No. I think they stayed home. See post 30 in this thread.

[soandso]

30. Numbers

2008
69,498,516 Obama
59,948,323 McCain

2012
65,915,795 Obama
60,933,504 Romney

2016
65,853,514 Clinton
62,984,828 Trump

2020
81,283,501 Biden
74,223,975 Trump

2024 (so far)
73,288,506 Trump
68,738,462 Harris

Dem votes '08-'24
69,498,516
65,915,795
65,853,514
81,283,501
68,738,462

Rep votes '08-'24
59,948,323
60,933,504
62,984,828
74,223,975
73,288,506

Okay, still some votes to be counted out west but most are in. Harris and Trump will both end up with slightly higher counts. I tried to make bar graphs of these years and numbers but couldn't figure out how to do it (technically challenged old person). Maybe someone else can. Rs seem consistent with slight increases, year after year. Ds are more inconsistent, especially in 2020 and Harris still hasn't approached Obama's '08 numbers, but likely will get there when everything is in. What to make of it??? It's not money. Ds have way more of it. Ds are also far better at GOTV and ground game. Very weird.

[WarGamer]

32. Recreating COVID era turnout was always unlikely

Remember the loosened voting rules from 2020?

[dpibel]

54. Other than Republican COVID-era turnout

It appears that Republican turnout this year is pretty much identical to that in the loosened voting rules of 2020.

I am not, mind you, suggesting any sort of vote tampering or other sinister thing.

In point of fact, I think that the bulk of the difference is that there is a segment of the population that is desultorily Democrat, but harbors the sexism and (mainly) racism that is endemic to our society. Those people couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Black woman. End of story.

It's really the Occam's Razor answer.

[pstokely]

60. should we be encouraging mail by vote?

?

[WarGamer]

62. for sure!!

[bdamomma]

34. So there's

enough blame to go around. Not enough Dems???????????? I just don't get it. Why???? Did they stay home??

And the felon's zombie cult, who voted him in.

[Jk23]

37. "By all accounts, Kamala had a great ground game."

In reality, she clearly did not. At some point, we have to face the reality vs what we told ourselves. It is early though so I think the voters are simply wrong is still okay.

[Zeitghost]

39. Agreed

I keep hearing the same and it just isn't true. We have a very easy metric for judging a successful ground game or campaign; did you get voters out to support you? The numbers show quite clearly that she lost ground to the opposition and lost ground from her successor.

That isn't a reflection of the effort, character or heart of VP Harris, but it is a reflection of her success. She was not successful, that sucks, but it's also true.


I also think that the "ground game" has changed in the era of social media. It isn't just about making phone calls and canvassing neighborhoods, which is precisely what I heard from many of my fellow Dems when they encouraged people to get out and help the campaign. Elections are now won on podcasts and through memes on social media. The Trump campaign killed us in those areas. Trump was the guest on multiple largely non-political podcasts that have numbers that dwarf traditional media outlets. The largest of those podcasts, The Joe Rogan Experience, released shows with Trump, Vance and Musk (as well as Fetterman from our side) in the final stretch. It was hugely consequential.

[Jit423]

43. That is so damn puzzling to me. All reports pre-election was record mail--in and record early voting.

Same day voting must have been off by a lot?

Or something else happened.

[Jk23]

49. Yeah but it was for the other guy.

We bused thousands of poor and minority voters to the polls and in many cases they went in and voted for Trump.

[dpibel]

57. Did you forget the sarcasm tag?

I hope you did.

[Arthur_Frain]

45. How?

Roe-vember.

All of his previous cabinet members who have disavowed him.

His obvious dementia and descent into madness.

I think it's time to face the fact that we are in the minority.

[thatdemguy]

53. I work with a pretty diverse group, and a few of us talked today.

First the one woman in the group did not vote, as she said she felt the party was not representing her anymore. She was not happy about Biden dropping out, she feels like he got pushed out and Harris shoved down her throat, her exact words. I tried to ask her what she meant by not representing her anymore. She said she was a cis woman who is mixed heritage, she said she felt like the party cared more about lgbtq than cis woman. I tried to point out all the push back the D party was doing on abortion which applied to her as a cis woman and she said she is done having kids it does not effect her to which I said that's selfish.

One of the PMs is Latino, is not happy about the border situation, his family is from Peru and spent years to come here legally. He had to fight to get his citizenship, immigration would not accept a bunch of his paperwork, so seeing what is going on with the border he voted for rump. He said everyone in his family did, 2 siblings and his mother ( his father is deceased ). They are bitter that they fought for the right to be here for years before they could come here and others are coming in and are allowed to stay. I tried to ask more info and he blew me off and walked away.

The few others there said they were not thrilled with Harris and being that we were all Maryland residents the state would go to her anyways. I know from past conversations with most of them they are all occasional voters but did vote for Hillary but not all did for Biden.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

55. DEADLINE WHITEHOUSE uncovers REAL REASON Why Kamala Lost - Nicole Wallace MSNBC revealing Insights

I am a numbers geek. While I do blame part of Kamala's defeat on sexism, I heard today a good explanation as to what one of the major reasons for Tuesday's election results on Deadline White House today. President Biden had an approval rating of around 40% and the wrong track numbers were very high. Historically, an incumbent president tends to get the same percentage of vote as their approval ratings. Here Kamala got 7% or so higher vote compared to Joe Biden's approval rating which is a testament to the fact that she ran a great campaign.

Link to tweet

.

Joe Biden did a great job on the economy and prevented a recession. However the public was still upset at the fact that food and other things cost more and they felt bad about the economy. The high percentage of people who believe that the country was on the wrong track also hurt. In effect, Kamala was facing a very high burden to overcome and was unable to overcome the feelings that the country was on the wrong track and the fact voters were upset about the economy.

[Colgate 64]

56. I don't disagree with you

but what gets me is the apparently pervasive perception that "the country is on the wrong track". Makes a wonderful, repeatable sound bite for any number of talking heads sagely analyzing the election. But I'm puzzled. What the hell does it mean?
I doubt that more than 1 in 10 citizens, if you held a gun to their head could tell you with any specificity what they mean when they say it. Is the country "on the wrong track" because gasoline is slightly higher than we remember it being during Trump? Is it that someone on Fox said that our borders have collapsed and waves of blood-thirsty immigrant stone killers are even now on their way to your town to rape your wife and daughters before they slaughter you? Or, perhaps are we giving way too ,much importance to "THEM" (fill in the ethnic/religious/racial group of your choice)?
My point is that trying to use this term as an explanation is not really saying anything concrete. It is just a placeholder instead of revealing an amorphous discontent many of us have but can't even truly verbalize. Politicians can't address it because those voters don't even truly understand it. However, in an election period the same voters jump to it as a plausible, acceptable explanation to give to others when questioned about why they voted the way they did.

[proud patriot]

59. How many people were purged ?

who were purged ?

where were they purged ?

how many legal voters were turned away and where?

these are my questions