General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWe lost (some of) the black men, the Hispanics, the youth and the first time voters.
Please note... all groups we are historically STRONG with.
Please... major introspection and Party leaders take note.
I know why... but so do they. Listen to Fetterman.
Note:
Trump got around 25% black males, won with first time voters, highest Latino support ever (40%+) and improvement with under 30's...
Libosaurus
(28 posts)Missiles inbound.
Skittles
(158,412 posts)whatever
Jersey Devil
(10,317 posts)I'd be interested in seeing it if you have a link
TwilightZone
(28,707 posts)Trump made gains in nearly every demographic group.
I'm sure Pew or Gallup will put together a postmortem similar to what was done in 2020. That should provide a bigger picture of the extent to which voters shifted to the right.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
As an aside, last I saw, it was 20% of black men and 54% of Latino men, though perhaps they have been updated.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)I see one thing all these groups mentioned have in common....
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)In the overall 18-29, Harris won, but by less than Biden did (and this would probably reflect the under age 30 male shift I've seen in other exit polls)
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)TwilightZone
(28,707 posts)WarGamer
(15,200 posts)LisaL
(46,417 posts)NT
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)Again, it seems to confirm the increase was male.
Is this a function of them running from a female candidate- or it is a function of the republican party simply representing the values that more men find important?
None of this will be easy introspection.
https://www.nbcwashington.com/decision-2024/2024-voter-turnout-election-demographics-trump-harris/3762138/
TwilightZone
(28,707 posts)That should break the pattern.
Men are a primary factor in Trump's win, of course, but white women certainly didn't help our cause as much as many expected.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)53% of white women (and 44% of all women voters overall) are a lot fewer votes than 54% of men of all races- not giving men a free pass on this, sorry.
LisaL
(46,417 posts)NT
Yavin4
(36,029 posts)If White women voted in the exact same percentages as Black men did, Harris would've won in a 50-state landslide. Black men supported Harris overall more than men of all other races. Do not lump Black men into your diatribe.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)Men are not getting off the hook.
White women, and to a lesser extent hispanic women, have their own share of the blame but MEN ARE NOT EXCUSED!!!!!! PERIOD.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)"According to CNN's exit poll, there was around a 10-point gender gap between men and women voting for Trump, with 42 percent of men and 53 percent of women voting for Harris while 55 percent of men and 45 percent of women voted for Trump. But these numbers aren't shocking.
The gap was larger for Latino and black voters than it was for white voters. Sixty percent of white men and 53 percent of white women voted for Trump. Meanwhile, there was a 14-point gap in black men's and women's support for Harris, with 21 percent of black men and 7 percent of black women voting for Trump. Latino voters had a 17-point gender gap, with 55 percent of Latino men and 38 percent of Latina women supporting Trump."
https://reason.com/2024/11/08/was-2024-the-gender-gap-election/
TheProle
(2,901 posts)https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/yes-trump-improved-young-men-drew-young-women-rcna179019
Homoudont
(80 posts)I've seen videos of the college campus out west and in the south celebrating Trump's win. Thousands of college aged kids running up and down the streets chanting USA. Riley Gaines did a college tour across the US and packed every venue. Losing any % of the college aged vote is devasting. The Democratic party really needs to do a deep dive into the stats and correct what's wrong.
Sympthsical
(10,032 posts)If Tuesday wasnt a call for self-reflection and - for the love of everything holy - self-awareness, this isnt going to be the only electoral disappointment we face in the coming years.
People dont hear themselves, but voters hear them just fine.
I told and told and told people about how Latinos were receiving our messages, and people insisted - and are still insisting - on talking to them as a group as if they all just crossed the Rio Grande.
It is gob smacking that people are that oblivious to how they sound. That bubble has some fucking thick ass insulation.
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)TwilightZone
(28,707 posts)Remember Biden talking about people getting out of their silos?
He wasn't just referring to those on the right.
orange jar
(851 posts)I was admittedly optimistic early on in the night, albeit harboring some concerns. Trump's win confirmed something that I think is an underrated turn off to most "average" Americans the belief that certain demographics are certain to vote for Harris/Dems is showing itself to be increasingly flawed. The economy was undoubtedly the greatest factor, but I think a lot of minorities are getting sick of what they view as identity politics. They think it's cynical and inauthentic.
I think, for now on, our strategy needs to be prioritizing simple, straightforward pocketbook and kitchen table issues first and foremost. Then, once elected into office, we can advocate for liberal social and cultural policies. Social policy is important, but they don't seem to motivate voters to fully support a candidate.
radius777
(3,785 posts)were terrible - he would've lost much worse than Harris did - who did herself speak to pocketbook issues and did not focus on identity.
Illegal immigration, crime and inflation - that's what moved working class voters rightward even in blue states.
Keep in mind that Bill Clinton and Obama were viewed to be strong on the border, and presided over economies that regular people felt worked for them, where cost of living and prices were low.
Redleg
(6,111 posts)How can our messaging ever compete with "immediate mass deportations," "they're eating the cats and dogs," "China will pay the tariffs," and "your body, our choice" if that is what these people voted for?
I agree that we do need to improve our messaging. I also think that some of these fucking people are unreachable if they bought into Trump's bullshit.
sarisataka
(20,879 posts)but the reply was "This isn't 2016" and they walked on oblivious in their world where victory was inevitable.
H2O Man
(75,334 posts)onetexan
(13,885 posts)Kamala had 2 months.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)Come on, she was picking up a campaign that was already funded, staffed, and planned. It's not like we plucked her up from a booth at TGI Fridays and said, "You're it! Good luck!"
yardwork
(63,970 posts)Her campaign was quite different than Biden's had been. She worked really hard.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)LisaL
(46,417 posts)She wasn't "vetted" so to speak to see how well she does with actual voters.
Biden was forced to step down because he was old and supposedly un-popular. But there was no indication Kamala was any more popular at the time, or had a better approval rating. And she had to go against both racism and misogyny. So it was an uphill battle.
Jk23
(330 posts)We need to make sure that our candidates are tested properly.
Autumn
(46,031 posts)Jason1961
(461 posts)VP Harris had the shortest campaign in modern history, we barely had time for people to get to know her platform.
This wasn't the only reason, it appears that working class voters were duped into voting against their own best interest, we can either find a way to make them smart enough to see through the Republican's message (unlikely) or we figure out ways to tailor our own message to bring them back where they belong
onetexan
(13,885 posts)not smart. Seems he's right.
I will also add that the US is still very much a patriarchy. Many, both male & female, would prefer to vote for a know-nothing demented felon over an eminently qualified woman, a Black and Indian woman at that. The misogyny & cultural bias is deeply ingrained in many.
Tommymac
(7,331 posts)Not much has changed since.
They don't think they belong here - stick it to the Libtards no matter what.
Raygun. Twice.
Bush 2. Twice.
Trump. Twice.
I ain't talking about the middle class btw. I am talking about Joe and Jane Sixpack - the working class, the lower class. Chock full of Black, Latino and White males under 50, brimming with hormones, anger stoked by Fox News, and open to hate.
Pick any local neighborhood dive bar in the Pittsburgh region and you can talk to them yourself. They are legion.
BTW, it is not just on them - it is on our Party to really do some self examination and figure out why we are not appealing to them.
FDR figured it out - maybe we need to go back and look at what the Party was then and how he did it.
Not that it will matter politically for a long time. I don't expect that there will be a free and fair election again in the US in my lifetime.
But regardless, we need to start fighting back - and information is the key.
Jk23
(330 posts)It doesn't work.
Stick with bread and butter economic issues minimum wage home insurance car insurance Healthcare retirement funds.
Put identity and gender Politics on the same Iceberg we're going to put the consultant that recommended Lynn Cheney Co campaign with our candidate.
It's the economy and crime and safety and rule of law everything else we can worry about once we win.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)Exit polls indicate a string swing to Trump among Hispanics, especially Hispanic men. I'm not seeing a strong swing by Black men.There was a significant swing to Trump by Asians and young people, but not nearly as strong as the apparent Hispanic swing.
I'm reading that every state except CO showed a right wing swing toward Trump, compared to 2020. If that's true, we have to figure out why. Was Democratic turnout down? Did some people switch their support from Biden in 2020 to Trump this year?
It's too soon to make definite conclusions.
AkFemDem
(2,064 posts)We can laud job markets and point out how the fed handles interest rates and who is actually responsible for inflation etc etc etc but when people can't afford groceries, that is their own personal analysis of the economy, that is how they judge if the country is "doing okay". We can mock people for not understanding the nuances, but being right doesn't really matter when people are trying to pay their bills. Trump capitalized on that pain and fear rather than telling them "everything's actually really great!" and it worked.
Redleg
(6,111 posts)Anyway, the MSM and the MAGATs will determine the narrative, not us.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)For instance, while I understand that prices are a concern and motivator to a lot of Americans, the MSM helps create the public's focus on that issues, while ignoring that gas prices are low, for instance.
Is it that food prices are "too high" (a highly subjective measure) or are wages too low? Looking at trends, the cost of a lot of things in the U.S. used to be much lower in relation to wages. Those products actually cost more, taking into account overall inflation. TVs now cost less than they did 20 years ago. Things like toasters and blenders used to be made in America and their prices plummeted when manufacturing moved overseas. Literal slaves, children working in sweatshops, people working for pennies a day - this led to Americans' insatiable appetite for more and more relatively cheap things.
When I was a child in the 1960s, blue collar workers could afford to raise a family on one income, owning a house and car. There were many fewer toys and gadgets, people had fewer clothes, and they cooked at home with a relatively short list of available ingredients.
I'm not saying it's bad to have a wide array of options at the grocery store, but it is bad that wages haven't kept up with costs, and instead, American consumers got used to having a lot of cheap junk to keep us distracted.
The Republicans created this imbalance, and Trump will greatly increase the divide between the very wealthy and most everybody else, who will continue to be squeezed and who will be told by the MSM and GOP that it's all the Democrats' fault.
Redleg
(6,111 posts)The MSM doesn't know how to on report economic issues or on Trump and MAGA. Add to that the fact that Joe Biden's policies and actions had very little to do with rising inflation. People keep telling us that we need to craft a better message so that the masses will understand but it seems to me there is a great deal of economics illiteracy in this county that makes renders ineffective such attempts.
Our economy does seem designed to favor the investor class over the working class, and this shift has been happening since WWII and has become more more pronounced since the financial sector has grown in dominance, and with financial deregulation, has brought about major crises to our economic order (i.e., the tech bubble in the late 90's, the sub-prime housing fiasco in the 2000s).
I like the Democratic message of creating an economy that works for all workers. This message is simple and optimistic and should resonate with many Americans. Unfortunately, the message was undermined by rising costs attibutable to supply chain problems, some price gouging, the MSM's piss-poor reporting, and Trump's constant running-down of the economy.
sarisataka
(20,879 posts)away from the Democratic party; I would like to think we will learn but I am pessimistic.
standingtall
(2,932 posts)A 1% drop from 2020 is not what I would call losing black males, especially when it's offset by a 2% increase in black female support.
White people including white men and women and the 13 point drop in Latino support is what killed us. Along with the 12 to 15 million voters from 2020 that didn't vote in this election.
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)And those numbers were higher in swing states
yardwork
(63,970 posts)Harris's support among Black women increased by 2% more than 2020, and it looks like her support from Black men dropped only 1%. Now, I'm not sure about turnout. However, blaming this loss on Black voters is WAY wrong. Harris would have won in a landslide of epic proportions if only Black people voted.
As I said upthread, it's too early to draw conclusions. The data is still coming in.
WarGamer
(15,200 posts)LisaL
(46,417 posts)NT
Dem4life1234
(1,195 posts)How many voters did the orange beast pick up?
I get sick of these narratives. Frankly I am sick of the attacks on BM and people wanting to start some kind of drama. She held strong with them.
If you want to look at real data, ask why many Latinos supported the thug? Leave BM alone.
Yavin4
(36,029 posts)Harris wins in a 50 state landslide.
dsp3000
(644 posts)circulating in immigrant communities is something that is underreported and needs to be addressed!
andym
(5,641 posts)You should include actual data in your OP.
Using this data source:
https://www.nbcwashington.com/decision-2024/2024-voter-turnout-election-demographics-trump-harris/3762138/
Did you use a different one?
Black Men 19% for Trump 2020, 20% 2024 -- 1% change is not significant at ALL
Youth 18-29: 36% for Trump in 2020, 42% in 2024--- 6% change is somewhat significant, but most 55% still voted Harris (down from 60%). First time voters may actually overlap with this category.
You are correct with these groups:
First-time voters:
Trump went from 32 in 2020 to 54% in 2024 -- a gain of 22% VERY significant. The question is why? Youth or Elon Musk's outreach?
Hispanics:
Trump went from 32 to 45%-- a gain of 13% also VERY significant.Why?
LeftInTX
(29,843 posts)Although, he did not "win" all the demographics, getting increased support was a big factor.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)Also, the Asian vote seems to have shifted pretty significantly toward Trump.
I have theories... the youth vote is influenced very strongly by their experience of the economy and sense of not being able to keep up. (The reasons for this are all the fault of Republicans, infuriatingly.) They're online and listen to podcasts. Very easy to influence this group through social media, because they feel disenfranchised- and they are, thanks to decades of GOP policies going back to Reagan.
Hispanic vote - this is an area where Democrats may have really messed up. Hispanics are not a cohesive bloc. Many of them have been Americans for generations and Trump's rhetoric about illegal immigrants resonates with them. Trump called Harris a communist. That scares people fleeing many Latin American countries. Many Americans ignore Latino culture in the U.S. and it keeps biting us. Democrats need to vastly improve outreach to all the major Latino groups. They're different and they have different motivations.
Asian vote - many Asian Americans are quite conservative, socially and politically.
The fact is, Democrats have welcomed people from all over the world, often fighting against Republican xenophobia to champion immigration - and now that they're citizens, many of these folks are becoming Republicans!
jrthin
(4,946 posts)Leave their countries because of oppression, lack of personal freedom, lack of financial opportunities, to come to America to gain those things. Yet they turn around and vote for politicians who will make this country similar to the ones they left. Also, many Latinos consider themselves to be white. And sadly, many share the same racists opinions as their white American counterparts. I don't know how we reach this type of racism that we've yet to reach with white Americans born here. Additionally, when we speak about Asians being conservative socially and politically, what we failed to flush out is many of them also have racists beliefs which we normalize by saying that they are politically and socially conservatives. How do we appeal to those racists beliefs when we can't appeal to American born whites?
yardwork
(63,970 posts)I'm not going to say that most Asians are racist because I have no reason to think that's true. The fact is that a majority of Asian voters supported Harris. (As opposed to a majority of white voters, who supported Trump.)
What I'm going to do is speak up more loudly in real life. I'm going to start pointing out times when Republican policies and laws hurt me. This is going to strain some relationships with acquaintances. Too bad. They're getting a lot of disinformation online and through TV and radio. I only have one way to fight back.
Elmotime
(4 posts)You aren't going to win hearts or minds by yelling insults. That has not worked so well. When Trump spent all of his time ranting and raving over the "stolen election" he only lost ground. It feels good to vent and point fingers but it is an electoral loser
yardwork
(63,970 posts)That's not my style. (At least in real life!) However, I disagree that winning hearts and minds by ignoring racist and bigoted statements is a winning strategy. It's clearly not working.
Also, Trump yells insults and a majority of the voters supported him. He lost no ground. I'm not going to act like Trump but I AM going to start bringing up "awkward" topics in polite conversations.
Elmotime
(4 posts)I can tell you my (R) family members complain that they've been called racists and sexists for years and they won't even consider anything beyond what the feel are personal insults. The negativity is alienating...feels good to do.... but alienating
I'm new here and probably a bit outside this bubble living in the deep south
yardwork
(63,970 posts)I'm not suggesting that we call people racists and sexists. What I'm saying is that when I hear someone say something Trumpy, I'm not going to ignore it. I'm going to politely speak up and say that I disagree.
I'll give a recent example. I was at a friend's house for a large celebratory gathering. Her brother in law said that Medicare Advantage plans are bad. A number of us agreed. Then he said, "It's healthcare for all, it's just like Obamacare." This is, obviously, completely wrong. Medicare Advantage plans are a Republican policy that is the opposite of "healthcare for all." But none of us said anything. Didn't want to be impolite. I regret that. I now wish I'd said, "You know, I see Medicare Advantage plans as a giveaway to corporations that hurts people, as opposed to government healthcare, which you are recommending in the form of traditional Medicare." And I wish that I'd also said, "Traditional Medicare, which you recommend, was passed by Democrats and is protected by Democrats, despite Republican efforts to cut it."
Note that I'm not suggesting calling anybody names or labeling them. Nor am I too constrained by having to have every fact correct or I'm afraid to speak up. It's ok to say, "It's my impression that the Democratic Party supports traditional Medicare and the Republicans keep trying to privatize it, as they keep trying to privatize social security." Let them respond with their opinions and even correct my facts. That's a conversation.
We've feared having these conversations and our democracy is going down the drain.
MichMan
(13,025 posts)Without insulting them?
jrthin
(4,946 posts)are racists. But enough of them are that they really can't see through the policy talk of this is hurting me, etc. Trust me, I've used reason to no avail. I get frustrated when I hear Asians and Latinos being described as socially and politically conservative and they are not called out the way right wingers are. For certainly their political and social conservatism mirror the same belief of lack or female reproductive rights, lack of LGBTQ rights, patriachay and racism. We've yet to reach right wingers who are white, I don't think we'll reach right wingers who are Asians and Latinos. Reaching out to them means we have to abandon our views that women's rights are equal rights and racism is wrong.
I do hear what you're saying, and in spite of what's written above, I say bravo to you for trying and being out there.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)It's my impression that people are getting away with ugly behavior - and I consider voting for Trump to be ugly behavior - because we Democrats are allowing it.
This permission state gets transferred into the media. Trump called Harris all kinds of vile things and there was no outrage. Biden stumbles over his words while defending Puerto Ricans and the media piled on for days.
People say, "Oh that's just Trump" and we let it go. We complain here on DU and among ourselves in safe spaces but we don't call up our Trumpy BIL and say, "You know, I'm disgusted that Trump called Kamala Harris a whore. What do you think about that?" Then let BIL say, "Oh, it's just Trump but what about prices." And then we can have a conversation where everything's on the table.
jrthin
(4,946 posts)What you've said rings true to me. But, again Yardwork, you seem willing to do the hard work, like calling out the BIL, most are not. Also, with the media, we do not have a level playing field. That is a big part of our disadvantage. And with billionaires buying up most of the media, we're now at a severe disadvantage. Let's take heart my friend.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)Thank you for your kind words.
MichMan
(13,025 posts)They consider themselves Americans first and foremost.
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FSogol
(46,386 posts)Enjoy your short stay.
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PennRalphie
(266 posts)Ive been talking about this for months. Kamala never focused on the economy. Her ads were all about not voting for trump. So many former Trump voters had already decided they werent voting for him. Instead of talking about this booming economy, she kept talking about him. It was so frustrating to watch.
The plumbers, electricians, fracking workers felt they were abandoned by Democrats. Hope its a lesson learned. K
I was very confident about her taking PA until Election Day. I had a meeting in a pretty red area. The lines to vote were unbelievably long. Its then I got worried.
Happy to see this site up and running. I tried to access day after election and saw traffic was so high? It had to be restricted. Glad its back.
Fish700
(4 posts)I think many Americans are deeply disappointed that their lives don't live up to what they think they deserve based on their social media consumption and the "Leave it to Beaver" narrative the Right has been pushing for most of my lifetime. They voted the way they did because they want to punish the rest of us for that and make our lives just as disappointing. Telling them that everything was improving under President Biden and that what they felt was happening (grocery prices, etc.) was all in their heads or price gouging just enraged them more. He is their retribution because deep down inside they are spoiled children with unrealistic expectations.
yardwork
(63,970 posts)The reason I think you're right is that every Trump voter I know is well-off. They have professional jobs that pay well, or they're retired with very comfortable incomes from SS and real estate investments, etc. They are not particularly hurt by high prices and poor working conditions. They just like to complain and they're greedy for even more tax cuts.
Meanwhile, the young people I know who are actually hurting in this economy all voted for Harris. Yes, they're mad that things are so difficult and they're annoyed that the Democrats haven't done more, but they're informed enough to know the right decision with this binary choice.
I know my experience might not be representative but I suspect it is. For every poor person who was confused enough to vote for Trump there were ten well-educated, wealthy, socially powerful people who trotted down to the polls to vote for Trump even though they know better.
Aepps22
(325 posts)To be honest with all of you, I think we have to figure out a way to get our coalition to believe in the power of their vote and that their votes matter. For whatever Trump gained if most of our voters showed up, Kamala is more competitive and might have pulled it out. Republicans never have this problem because they will vote no matter what. I candidly think back to what wouldve happened to people that look like me (Black) if our ancestors didnt fight and vote and vote until change happened. Change wasnt an overnight thing but it came. I dont see that same drive from many of the members of our coalition. If you skip local elections, only vote once every 4 years, complain that things didnt change then refuse to vote again, I just dont know what to do it. Because our coalition is so diverse we have to be willing to show up and vote even if we dont get exactly what we want. This isnt a messaging problem it is belief problem and it is the belief that voting doesnt work.
Jack Valentino
(1,191 posts)presumably half of which were women ????
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,094 posts)I disagree but that's how they feel
Yavin4
(36,029 posts)There are more White voters than anyone else. He won a majority of the majority of voters. Quibbling over percentages of Black men is false analysis.